About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 16, 2025 35 Jan 14, 2025
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 16, 2025 82 Jan 14, 2025
ROUGH RICE January Jan 16, 2025 55 Jan 02, 2025
SOYBEAN January Jan 16, 2025 17 Jan 10, 2025

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher again yesterday on follow through buying and chart trends are turning up. Wheat markets showed more strength than Corn or Soybeans yesterday, but the latter two markets rallied much more than Wheat did in response to the USDA reports. The USDA reports were not bullish to Wheat as plantings were higher than trade expectations as were world ending stocks estimates. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 554, 544, and 539 March, with resistance at 569, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 538, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 568, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 588, 578, and 572 March, and resistance is at 598, 601, and 606 March.

DJ Black Sea Wheat Exports Tumble — Market Talk
0941 ET – The amount of wheat being exported out of Russia and Ukraine is markedly lower than this month last year, says Andrey Sizov of SovEcon in a note. The firm forecasts that Russian wheat exports in January will total between 1.8 million metric tons and 2.2 million tons–down roughly 40% from last January’s figure of 3.6 million tons. Ukrainian wheat exports are estimated at 800,000 tons, roughly half of their exports at this time last year. For both countries, lower supplies of wheat amid weather stress have lowered their export pace, in turn pushing up wheat prices at Russian and Ukrainian ports. This has provided some support for wheat prices elsewhere, although wheat futures trading in Chicago are flat since the start of the year. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday in continued speculative short covering and some new commercial buying. Farmers have not been selling and the market needs the Rice. There are some questions about the milling quality of the new crop Rice and that will help keep demand from mills for good Rice stronger than it might have been. The trends are up the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong, but the difference is gone to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1423, 1417 and 1405 March and resistance is at 1455, 1474, and 1500 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday after follow through buying seen in response to the USDA production reports released on Friday ran out of steam. The overall market fundamentals remain bullish, but might be part of the price for now. USDA surprised the market by cutting yield estimates by 3.8 bushels per acre and production to just 14.867 billion bushels instead of the 15 billion plus expected by most of the trade. The yield and production estimates were below all trade guesses. US ending stocks were equal to the lowest trade estimate at 1.540 billion bushels. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff later. It is now very cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were higher.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 460, 457, and 453 March, and resistance is at 479, 483, and 489 March. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 335, 333, and 329 March, and resistance is at 356, 365, and 369 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed lower as follow through buying tied to the response to the USDA production reports ran out of steam. The fundamentals remain mixed to bearish. Soybeans were higher in response to bullish US production estimates released by USDA. It estimated yield a full bushel less than last month and production at 4.36s6 billion bushels. Ending stocks were estimated at 380 million bushels. Both estimates from USDA were well below the lowest trade guess. President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest last year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Soybeans are offered cheaper in South America now.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are up. Support is at 1028, 1019, and 1009 March, and resistance is at 1057, 1075, and 1079 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 295.00, and 292.00 March, and resistance is at 310.00, 315.00, and 321.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4370, 4310, and 4220 March, with resistance at 4650, 4790, and 4940 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was slightly lower yesterday. Indonesia wants to use a blend of 40% of Plam Oil in its gasoline mixtures, but this has proved to be expensive and might need to be reduced and allow for increased exports. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was lower along with the price action in Chicago. The market is holding above the December highs in part due to the bullish USDA reports. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 634.00, 629.00, and 617.00 March, with resistance at 648.00, 656.00, and 664.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4260, 4140, and 4100 April, with resistance at 4440, 4480, and 4530 April

Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1110.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1085.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1057.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 985.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 967.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1115.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1090.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1062.50 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 972.50 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1115.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,760.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 467.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.497)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 161,783 lots, or 6.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,870 3,890 3,870 3,890 3,851 3,823 -28 286 0
Mar-25 3,888 3,929 3,881 3,926 3,890 3,909 19 10,124 38,514
May-25 3,950 3,991 3,945 3,987 3,954 3,972 18 135,333 193,567
Jul-25 3,961 3,992 3,951 3,991 3,955 3,977 22 8,656 34,320
Sep-25 3,965 3,996 3,955 3,995 3,962 3,980 18 4,664 19,317
Nov-25 3,922 3,936 3,912 3,934 3,921 3,920 -1 2,720 13,834
Corn
Turnover: 655,254 lots, or 14.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,150 2,150 2,147 2,147 2,145 2,101 -44 62 0
Mar-25 2,185 2,187 2,173 2,183 2,182 2,181 -1 83,584 362,258
May-25 2,279 2,279 2,263 2,274 2,272 2,271 -1 513,644 1,308,553
Jul-25 2,298 2,301 2,286 2,299 2,297 2,294 -3 34,508 304,432
Sep-25 2,324 2,324 2,309 2,320 2,321 2,317 -4 14,603 81,376
Nov-25 2,268 2,271 2,256 2,268 2,269 2,264 -5 8,853 68,573
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,620,322 lots, or 4.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,960 2,965 2,960 2,965 2,991 2,873 -118 140 0
Mar-25 2,960 2,994 2,960 2,985 2,984 2,981 -3 84,702 380,531
May-25 2,746 2,774 2,740 2,772 2,751 2,756 5 1,276,348 2,292,592
Jul-25 2,712 2,743 2,709 2,742 2,717 2,726 9 42,762 308,276
Aug-25 2,876 2,904 2,871 2,901 2,879 2,890 11 22,485 167,407
Sep-25 2,881 2,915 2,880 2,910 2,889 2,899 10 169,447 976,475
Nov-25 2,897 2,939 2,897 2,934 2,910 2,922 12 18,331 212,114
Dec-25 2,965 2,997 2,962 2,992 2,977 2,982 5 6,107 72,372
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,040,675 lots, or 89.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 10,800 10,800 9,954 9,954 10,094 9,908 -186 113 0
Feb-25 9,452 9,558 9,296 9,338 9,528 9,432 -96 13,677 11,461
Mar-25 9,188 9,206 8,972 8,996 9,226 9,094 -132 6,218 17,368
Apr-25 8,892 8,916 8,686 8,698 8,934 8,808 -126 918 1,423
May-25 8,696 8,710 8,468 8,482 8,724 8,598 -126 973,535 468,827
Jun-25 8,566 8,566 8,326 8,342 8,566 8,464 -102 172 1,149
Jul-25 8,420 8,428 8,236 8,250 8,448 8,344 -104 105 1,248
Aug-25 8,348 8,348 8,186 8,188 8,376 8,248 -128 32 195
Sep-25 8,308 8,330 8,130 8,142 8,342 8,224 -118 45,650 102,549
Oct-25 8,306 8,306 8,098 8,112 8,306 8,260 -46 131 695
Nov-25 8,224 8,262 8,086 8,086 8,282 8,182 -100 64 318
Dec-25 8,212 8,232 8,076 8,084 8,290 8,180 -110 60 133
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 387,798 lots, or 30.14 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 – – – 7,808 7,554 7,808 254 0 0
Mar-25 7,864 7,892 7,806 7,816 7,838 7,852 14 4,136 20,644
May-25 7,800 7,818 7,728 7,738 7,772 7,776 4 352,360 609,750
Jul-25 7,716 7,730 7,652 7,660 7,698 7,698 0 958 7,506
Aug-25 7,738 7,758 7,694 7,696 7,702 7,730 28 144 491
Sep-25 7,694 7,726 7,648 7,652 7,680 7,688 8 30,141 134,912
Nov-25 7,726 7,758 7,684 7,692 7,714 7,730 16 47 2,329
Dec-25 7,730 7,730 7,690 7,690 7,716 7,714 -2 12 45
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322