About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in recovery trading. USDA on Friday increased production and ending stocks estimates on Friday. The weekly export sales report did not show strong sales. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: The USDA daily price is now 64.09 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 66.80, 66.20, and 65.60 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 278,816
: Positions :
: 31,572 83,508 64,180 86,619 92,276 81,060 24,494 263,430 264,457: 15,386 14,359
: Changes from: December 31, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,723) :
: -150 254 2,921 3,841 2,322 -321 908 6,291 6,405: 432 318
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.3 30.0 23.0 31.1 33.1 29.1 8.8 94.5 94.9: 5.5 5.1
: Total Traders: 316 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 106 93 71 58 46 28 246 237:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday, and trends are turning down on the daily charts as more cold weather invaded the eastern half of the country but appear to have missed Florida growing areas. The short term supply scenario remains very tight as USDA maintained its Florida production estimate at 12 million boxes and estimated US production at 60.3 million boxes from 60.6 million in its previous estimate. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News: ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against January futures and that total deliveries for the month are now 9 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are down. Support is at 471.00, 468.00, and 462.00 March, with resistance at 499.00, 507.00, and 512.00 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 7, 2025
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,343 :
: Positions :
: 1,629 10,714 650 0 96 5,934 73 0 1,333 313 2,364 :
: Changes from: December 31, 2024 :
: -143 182 26 0 -16 -36 73 0 132 -86 110 :
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.4 74.7 4.5 0.0 0.7 41.4 0.5 0.0 9.3 2.2 16.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 8 8 . 0 . 18 . 0 14 4 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher and London was lower yesterday as the market looked for more farm selling and wondered about the size of the drought damaged crops in Brazil. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta avai4lability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. Conditions are now good in Brazil as it has been raining. There are reports from Brazil that producers are selling again as the Real has weakened and producers are now making record money in Real terms.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 295.75 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4770, 4630, and 4510 March, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 251,279
: Positions :
: 51,522 10,024 80,844 50,022 143,160 58,926 10,455 241,314 244,483: 9,965 6,796
: Changes from: December 31, 2024 (Change in open interest: 4,386) :
: 2,133 728 1,535 87 1,870 52 339 3,807 4,472: 579 -86
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.5 4.0 32.2 19.9 57.0 23.5 4.2 96.0 97.3: 4.0 2.7
: Total Traders: 368 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 127 61 102 86 120 49 19 300 269:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on ideas of increasing Brazil and Asian production. Centerr-south Brazil and Thailand both have improved production potential. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales and help keep pressure on prices. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 1850, 1820, and 1790 March and resistance is at 2000, 2070, and 2140 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 490.00, 484.00, and 478.00 March, with resistance at 510.00, 521.00, and 526.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,096,373
: Positions :
: 98,966 162,879 255,740 389,348 558,227 286,043 58,124 1,030,097 1,034,969: 66,276 61,403
: Changes from: December 31, 2024 (Change in open interest: -9,255) :
: 155 -1,796 4,450 -18,302 -16,249 4,420 3,763 -9,277 -9,832: 22 577
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 14.9 23.3 35.5 50.9 26.1 5.3 94.0 94.4: 6.0 5.6
: Total Traders: 243 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 55 88 69 65 41 23 219 190:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday, but both markets held to the recent weekly trading range. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are tuning down in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 10250, 9830, and 9450 March, with resistance at 11880, 12000, and 12910 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 07, 2025
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 178,592
: Positions :
: 34,229 12,137 50,991 60,717 101,827 20,898 8,322 166,835 173,277: 11,757 5,315
: :
: Changes from: December 31, 2024 (Change in open interest: -981) :
: -2,480 227 -250 921 -567 597 52 -1,212 -537: 231 -444
: :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.2 6.8 28.6 34.0 57.0 11.7 4.7 93.4 97.0: 6.6 3.0
: :
: Total Traders: 158 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 49 38 56 39 39 26 12 142 118:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322