Softs Report 01/07/2025

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday as cold and snow snarled traffic in growing areas and on some talk that Mr. Trump could ease some of the tariff proposals he has made. This has been denied by the new officials. The weekly export sales report did not show strong sales. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 67.50, 66.80, and 66.20 March, with resistance of 69.40, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday as cold weather invaded the eastern half of the country and could bring some freezing temperatures to Florida growing areas. Most areas will get protected from the freezes by water put on the trees and fruit that will insulate the crops. The chart trends are mixed on the daily charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 489.00, 485.00, and 471.00 March, with resistance at 512.00, 524.00, and 530.00 March.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were a little higher yesterday in consolidation trading. Tight Arabica availability went against tight Robusta availability as the harvest has stalled in Vietnam due to too much rain. The rains are also hurting the quality of the harvest as it is more difficult to dry and store the beans correctly. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. Conditions are now good in Brazil. There are reports from Brazil that producers are selling again as the Real has weakened and producers are now making record money in Real terms.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 306.40 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4910, 4770, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

SUGER
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday on what seemed to be speculative trading. The Brazilian Real has been very weak lately to encourage sales. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts in both markets. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 2000, 2070, and 2140 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 503.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March, with resistance at 521.00, 526.00, and 538.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be commercial buying, and London was mixed. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 10800, 10250, and 9790 March, with resistance at 11880, 13000, and 14200 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 8500, 8160, and 7810 March, with resistance at 9380, 10200, and 10500 March.

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