Hemispheric Blowback. The Energy Report 01/07/2025

Remember President George W. Bush’s “Hemispheric Energy” Dream? The Dream is not dead! Not only is President Trump going to make American Energy great again, but apparently the resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the people in Canada are pushing back against radical oil and gas policies that have fed inflation and has done nothing to really help the environment.

Amena Bakr Senior Research Analyst Energy Intel points out that within hours after Trudeau’s announcement, the government of Alberta, Canada’s largest oil-producing province, and midstream giant Enbridge announced plans to explore ways to rapidly increase the country’s pipeline capacity, “in pursuit of its goal to double crude oil production and increase exports to the United States.”

Of course, that means that Canada will need more pipelines into the US and the US may need to stary streaming more projects to increase refining capacity. Or dare I say, fast track approvals to build a new refineries? There are projects on drawing boards that might start moving it to the next level. More Jobs!

Fox News is reporting that President-elect Donald Trump said he plans to immediately reverse Biden’s new ban on offshore drilling along most of the U.S. coastline, but he faces major roadblocks under a 70-year, irrevocable law. Throughout his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump vowed that, if elected, he would expand oil and gas drilling to bolster American-made energy.

However, Biden issued an 11th-hour executive order Monday morning to forestall such actions exactly two weeks before his term ends. He announced a permanent stop to most new oil and gas drilling across U.S. coastal and offshore waters in an area that spans about 625 million acres.

“It’s ridiculous. I’ll unban it immediately,” Trump said on “The Hugh Hewitt Show” on Monday. “What’s he doing?” as reported by Fox News.

Speaking of ridiculous, how about the government coming for your stove. SOS means “save our stoves”. One of the many blowbacks of the insane policies from the Biden administration that irritated the American people is the Biden administration coming for your natural gas stoves. Despite early denials that they want to take away our stoves, they made more and more efforts to move towards a natural gas stove ban but don’t worry. If you like your stove you can keep your stove. I think we heard that malarkey before.

President Trump, come protect our stoves! Reuters is reporting that, “President-Elect Donald Trump is weighing an executive order that seeks to protect gas-powered appliances including stoves and heaters from federal and local regulators who want to phase them out of homes and businesses, two sources familiar with the plans said. Chefs and restaurants and home cooks around the country will feel better to know that their natural gas stoves are safe from government confiscation.

Oil had a big surge in the reversal after it failed to take out 75. The fundamentals are still very bullish. Perhaps a market was a bit ahead of itself. Use breaks today to buy for a retest of 75.

The reversal in the dollar also weighed on prices as the markets seem to be so fundamentally heavy. We have a very tight physical market and see demand exceeding supply. That should lead to more drop downs of inventories around the globe.

Heating oil and natural gas surged on frigid forecasts. And even though we saw natural gas prices in the United States rise by over 40%. this year the reality is it’s a lot better than it is in Europe. John kemp Energy reports that, ”European surplus gas inventories have disappeared after repeated bouts of cold and windless weather this winter. Inventories have depleted by 280 terawatt-hours (TWh) since winter started on October 1, the largest seasonal draw for eight years since the winter of 2016/17. As a result, inventories were just 24 TWh (+3% or +0.19 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on January 5. The surplus had shrunk from 122 TWh (+13% or +1.38σ) on October 1 and 283 TWh (+72% or +2.08σ) at the end of last winter on March 31.

In the US natural gas supplies could be really challenged with the oncoming cold. Record demand and production problems could permeate the natural gas market and that’s the main reason why we’re seeing prices here in the US surge.

Fox Weather reports that it will be an extended stretch of brutal cold on the way for 40 states as arctic air infiltrates America. These frigid temperatures are expected to remain in place across the eastern half of the country for at least the next two weeks.

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