Between last week having Christmas, this week having New Years, and 2 weeks from Monday being MLK Jr. day, the market/government has had a number of holiday breaks lately. Of course, the breaks are at times necessary to not only allow for the mind and body (brain and fingers for myself, as some have less physically demanding jobs than others) to rest, but it also allows time with family. For the bears this week, New Years Eve was an extra day of rest, while the most bulls decided they required another day off on Friday, as the ags were in selloff mode. Either way, we typically see lower trade activity around the Holidays, as traders take a little extra time off. But as we resume a somewhat normal week in the first full week of January, most should be back to their desks and ready to roll in time for a slew of USDA data to be released next Friday.
Corn futures fell back this week on the Friday drop, as March was down just 3 ¼ cents (0.72%). EIA data showed ethanol production ticking slightly higher, up 4,000 barrels per day to 1.11 million bpd in the week of 12/27. Stocks of ethanol were building by another 565,000 barrels to 23.639 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from Thursday showed November grind at 464.94 mbu, down 0.4% from October but up 1.7% from November 2023. Export Sales data saw 2024/25 corn bookings at the second lowest total this marketing year of 776,992 MT for the week ending on December 26. That took export commitments to 38.801 MMT, which is 62% of the fresh US export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 58%.
Wheat was in exchange mode this week taking back last week’s Christmas presents for losses across the three markets. Chicago March was back down 17 1/4 cents (-3.16%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a loss of 15 1/2 cents (-2.8%) this week. MPLS March was 17 1/2 cents (-2.94%) lower than last Friday. Precip is in the forecast for some SRW areas, with HRW getting some moisture expected in parts of KS this next week. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business backing off from a 25-week high to a marketing year low at 140,591 MT during the week of 12/26. That took export sale commitments to 17.073 MMT, which is now 74% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 82% average selling pace.
Soybeans came out on a positive side of trade this week as March was up just 2 cents despite a Friday freefall. Bean oil was down 7 points (-0.18%), as meal shorts were tired of covering by Friday, falling $1.90/ton on the week (-0.61%). Fats & Oils data from Thursday showed a total of 210 mbu of soybeans crushed in November. That was down 2.66% from the prior month’s all-time record, but up 4.97% from November 2023. Soy oil stocks were pegged at 1.612 billion lbs at the end of November. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 484,679 MT, a marketing year low. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 40.171 MMT. That is 81% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 79% average pace.
Live cattle were one of the few bright spots this week, as February was back up $3.40 (1.78%). Cash trade kicked off on Thursday and Friday, with action up $4-5 across the country. Southern trade was at $196 to 197, with Norther action at $200. Feeders were up $3.45 (1.32%) on the week in the January contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $7.44 week/week to $265.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $28.52/cwt. Choice was up $2.86 (2.1%) to $325.24, while Select was $5.59 higher (1.9%) to $296.72. Weekly beef production was up 14.9% from last week but down 6.5% from the same week last year at 432.2 million lbs. Beef export sales totaled 1,412 MT for 2024 in the last full week of the year, with 11,140 MT for 2025 shipment. Exports in the week of 12/26 were tallied at 12,204 MT, a 16-week low.
Hogs were facing pressure for much of the week, as February fell $3.37 (4.01%) since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.11 this week at $83.99 as of December 31. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $5.53 (5.8%) this week to $89.54. The ham was the leader, with $19.42, with the picnic and belly tagging along to the downside. Pork production totaled 495.6 million lbs this week, back up 11.6% from last week but down 4.3% from the same week last year. Pork export sales totaled 7,528 MT for 2024 in the week of 12/26, with 13,527 MT for 2025. Shipments in that week were 23,746 MT, a 12-week low.
Cotton bulls were in a giving mood this week, giving back all of last week’s gains as March was down 123 points for a 1.79% loss. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales back down this week to 128,866 RB of cotton sold in the week of 12/26, the lowest total in 12 weeks. Shipments were back down to 115,813 RB. Commitments are now at 7.615 million RB, which is 72% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 78% of USDA’s export projection by now. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 48 points this week, to 55.03 cents/lb. The USDA announced the cotton marketing assistance loan rate for 2025 is 52 cents.
Market Watch
Next week starts off with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning per normal. On Tuesday, Census will release trade data for November. EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report will be back to a Wednesday morning release next week. Due to the funeral for former President Carter on Thursday, the CME will have an hour early close, with government reports pushed back a day. That means the FAS will release the weekly Export Sales report on Friday again next week. We will also get the monthly WASDE and Cotton Ginnings, quarterly Grain Stocks, and annual Crop Production and Winter Wheat Seedings reports on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
Friday was not the prettiest of days for March corn, with that big red candlestick. As big as it is, technically, it is inert, as the high matched the Thursday high, so there is no key reversal or bearish engulfing line. We have been in an uptrend sine the October low and met the upper end of the rising regression channel at $4.61 this week. Lower boundary support isn’t until $4.39, though there are still some levels from here to there. We also have a stochastics sell signal, though MACD being bullish and a high ADX suggest sticking with the bull trend for now. With that said the sell signal and regression channel hint at a pullback correction ahead of the January reports on Friday. Initial support is the 200-day moving average at $4.49, with the Bollinger midline at $4.47 ¾. Upside resistance is via the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at $4.68 ¼.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
A Day Off. Ag Marketing Report 01/06/2025
Between last week having Christmas, this week having New Years, and 2 weeks from Monday being MLK Jr. day, the market/government has had a number of holiday breaks lately. Of course, the breaks are at times necessary to not only allow for the mind and body (brain and fingers for myself, as some have less physically demanding jobs than others) to rest, but it also allows time with family. For the bears this week, New Years Eve was an extra day of rest, while the most bulls decided they required another day off on Friday, as the ags were in selloff mode. Either way, we typically see lower trade activity around the Holidays, as traders take a little extra time off. But as we resume a somewhat normal week in the first full week of January, most should be back to their desks and ready to roll in time for a slew of USDA data to be released next Friday.
Corn futures fell back this week on the Friday drop, as March was down just 3 ¼ cents (0.72%). EIA data showed ethanol production ticking slightly higher, up 4,000 barrels per day to 1.11 million bpd in the week of 12/27. Stocks of ethanol were building by another 565,000 barrels to 23.639 million barrels. Grain Crushing data from Thursday showed November grind at 464.94 mbu, down 0.4% from October but up 1.7% from November 2023. Export Sales data saw 2024/25 corn bookings at the second lowest total this marketing year of 776,992 MT for the week ending on December 26. That took export commitments to 38.801 MMT, which is 62% of the fresh US export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 58%.
Wheat was in exchange mode this week taking back last week’s Christmas presents for losses across the three markets. Chicago March was back down 17 1/4 cents (-3.16%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a loss of 15 1/2 cents (-2.8%) this week. MPLS March was 17 1/2 cents (-2.94%) lower than last Friday. Precip is in the forecast for some SRW areas, with HRW getting some moisture expected in parts of KS this next week. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business backing off from a 25-week high to a marketing year low at 140,591 MT during the week of 12/26. That took export sale commitments to 17.073 MMT, which is now 74% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 82% average selling pace.
Soybeans came out on a positive side of trade this week as March was up just 2 cents despite a Friday freefall. Bean oil was down 7 points (-0.18%), as meal shorts were tired of covering by Friday, falling $1.90/ton on the week (-0.61%). Fats & Oils data from Thursday showed a total of 210 mbu of soybeans crushed in November. That was down 2.66% from the prior month’s all-time record, but up 4.97% from November 2023. Soy oil stocks were pegged at 1.612 billion lbs at the end of November. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 484,679 MT, a marketing year low. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 40.171 MMT. That is 81% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 79% average pace.
Live cattle were one of the few bright spots this week, as February was back up $3.40 (1.78%). Cash trade kicked off on Thursday and Friday, with action up $4-5 across the country. Southern trade was at $196 to 197, with Norther action at $200. Feeders were up $3.45 (1.32%) on the week in the January contract. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was up $7.44 week/week to $265.76. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread narrowed to $28.52/cwt. Choice was up $2.86 (2.1%) to $325.24, while Select was $5.59 higher (1.9%) to $296.72. Weekly beef production was up 14.9% from last week but down 6.5% from the same week last year at 432.2 million lbs. Beef export sales totaled 1,412 MT for 2024 in the last full week of the year, with 11,140 MT for 2025 shipment. Exports in the week of 12/26 were tallied at 12,204 MT, a 16-week low.
Hogs were facing pressure for much of the week, as February fell $3.37 (4.01%) since last Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was back down $1.11 this week at $83.99 as of December 31. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was down another $5.53 (5.8%) this week to $89.54. The ham was the leader, with $19.42, with the picnic and belly tagging along to the downside. Pork production totaled 495.6 million lbs this week, back up 11.6% from last week but down 4.3% from the same week last year. Pork export sales totaled 7,528 MT for 2024 in the week of 12/26, with 13,527 MT for 2025. Shipments in that week were 23,746 MT, a 12-week low.
Cotton bulls were in a giving mood this week, giving back all of last week’s gains as March was down 123 points for a 1.79% loss. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales back down this week to 128,866 RB of cotton sold in the week of 12/26, the lowest total in 12 weeks. Shipments were back down to 115,813 RB. Commitments are now at 7.615 million RB, which is 72% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 78% of USDA’s export projection by now. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was back up 48 points this week, to 55.03 cents/lb. The USDA announced the cotton marketing assistance loan rate for 2025 is 52 cents.
Market Watch
Next week starts off with the weekly Export Inspections report on Monday morning per normal. On Tuesday, Census will release trade data for November. EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report will be back to a Wednesday morning release next week. Due to the funeral for former President Carter on Thursday, the CME will have an hour early close, with government reports pushed back a day. That means the FAS will release the weekly Export Sales report on Friday again next week. We will also get the monthly WASDE and Cotton Ginnings, quarterly Grain Stocks, and annual Crop Production and Winter Wheat Seedings reports on Friday.
Tech Talk: March Corn
Friday was not the prettiest of days for March corn, with that big red candlestick. As big as it is, technically, it is inert, as the high matched the Thursday high, so there is no key reversal or bearish engulfing line. We have been in an uptrend sine the October low and met the upper end of the rising regression channel at $4.61 this week. Lower boundary support isn’t until $4.39, though there are still some levels from here to there. We also have a stochastics sell signal, though MACD being bullish and a high ADX suggest sticking with the bull trend for now. With that said the sell signal and regression channel hint at a pullback correction ahead of the January reports on Friday. Initial support is the 200-day moving average at $4.49, with the Bollinger midline at $4.47 ¾. Upside resistance is via the 61.8% Fib retracement resistance at $4.68 ¼.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2025 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.