Grains Report 01/03/2025

DJ Food Prices Fell in December, UN Says
By Joe Hoppe
Food prices slipped in December but remained near 19-month highs, driven by cheaper sugar, dairy products and vegetable oils, data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations showed on Friday.
The FAO’s food price index–which tracks global prices for a basket of staple foods–averaged 127.0 points in December, a 0.5% decrease from November’s level and 6.7% higher than a year earlier. The index reached 19-month highs in November, but remained below the record reached in March 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Vegetable-oil prices fell 0.5% from the previous month–which recorded the sharpest rise since July 2022–but remain up 33.5% on year. The decrease reflects lower quotations for rapeseed, soy and sunflower oils, offsetting slightly higher palm oil prices. Dairy prices fell 0.7%, snapping a seven-month consecutive streak of gains due to lower butter, world cheese and skim milk powder prices.
Cereal prices were broadly unchanged on month, according to the U.N. body, and were down 9.3% on year. Global wheat prices were stable, with subdued international demand and strong supply from Argentina and Australia offsetting poor crop conditions in Russia. Maize prices marginally rose on increased export sales and tighter supplies in the U.S. Sorghum prices decreased.
Meat prices bucked the trend, rising 0.4% on month and up 7.1% from a year earlier. This largely reflects higher bovine meat prices on strong global demand and routine maintenance driving production constraints in major exporters. International ovine meat prices also rose on reduced slaughter availability in Australia. Pig meat prices declined in lower-than-expected European Union demand and poultry meat prices fell on ample supply from Brazil.
Sugar prices dropped 5.1% from November and 10.6% on year due to larger-than-expected Brazilian production and a weakened Brazilian real against the dollar. The decline also reflects improved prospects for harvests starting in April in Brazil and the cane-crushing season underway in India and Thailand, the FAO said.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Jan 3
For the week ended Dec 26, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 140.6 0.0 16904.9 15265.2 4956.5 39.6
hrw 48.0 0.0 3998.3 2672.6 1177.0 12.6
srw -19.8 0.0 2553.7 4323.9 770.4 27.0
hrs 55.4 0.0 5524.9 4888.0 1571.9 0.0
white 37.1 0.0 4492.0 3019.6 1288.0 0.0
durum 20.0 0.0 336.0 361.1 149.2 0.0
corn 777.0 0.0 38800.9 29788.7 23053.1 860.6
soybeans 484.7 0.0 40171.4 36326.3 11720.9 144.2
soymeal 203.8 0.0 8304.2 7138.4 4615.1 103.3
soyoil 38.1 0.0 564.8 33.5 370.7 0.3
upland cotton 128.9 5.3 7614.7 8623.4 4947.0 473.2
pima cotton 1.7 0.0 240.4 189.3 78.4 0.0
sorghum 18.9 0.0 1116.8 3933.1 96.4 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 30.3 16.6 19.0 3.0
rice 33.3 0.0 1878.0 1842.6 611.2 0.0

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Jan 3
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL January Jan 06, 2025 333 Dec 31, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL January Jan 06, 2025 237 Dec 31, 2024
SOYBEAN January Jan 06, 2025 331 Dec 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower yesterday in consolidation trading. There weas not any real news for buyers or sellers. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 554, 561, and 569 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 541, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 560, 566, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 602, 606, and 6 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed mostly a little higher yesterday in some light volume speculative trading. Commercials and speculators seemed to be on both sides of the market, but speculators seemed to be the better sellers. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices, but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1391, 1382 and 1372 March and resistance is at 1423, 1454, and 1474 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher yesterday on some new buying and no selling interest. There were no new export sales announcements from USDA. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. Sellers were hard to find with most producers still on holiday break. It is about to turn v4ery cold in the Midwest so it will get harder for Corn buyers to convince farmers to sell. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 448, 441, and 436 March, and resistance is at 464, 470, and 476 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 324, 320, and 313 March, and resistance is at 339, 350, and 356 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on Tuesday and Soybean Oil was lower. There was little selling interest in futures yesterday. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices. However, farmers are not selling for tax r3easons and now due to the very clod weather that will be seen in the Midwest over the next couple of weeks.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up. Support is at 998, 987, and 972 March, and resistance is at 1024, 1032, and 1055 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are up. Support is at 316.00, 310.00, and 306.00 March, and resistance is at 326.00, 329.00, and 337.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3980, 3900, and 3840 March, with resistance at 4100, 4160, and 4260 March.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher. The charts show that a low has been completed and a new uptrend could be underway. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 610.00, 601.00, and 592.00 March, with resistance at 626.00, 632.00, and 640.00 MaRch. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4290, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4570, 4650, and 4770 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light and scattered precipitation. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Jan 3
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1125.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1105.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1095.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 972.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1130.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1110.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1100.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 977.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1135.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 982.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,800.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 480.00 -09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.501)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Jan 03
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 137,586 lots, or 5.40 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,834 3,834 3,834 3,834 3,834 3,834 0 314 3,631
Mar-25 3,875 3,875 3,842 3,850 3,864 3,858 -6 17,836 46,741
May-25 3,942 3,944 3,909 3,917 3,938 3,928 -10 104,354 180,381
Jul-25 3,963 3,967 3,934 3,940 3,960 3,948 -12 8,113 14,654
Sep-25 3,975 3,987 3,953 3,959 3,984 3,971 -13 2,862 16,329
Nov-25 3,964 3,974 3,941 3,948 3,966 3,956 -10 4,107 3,417
Corn
Turnover: 720,972 lots, or 15.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,095 2,100 2,089 2,091 2,095 2,093 -2 5,506 18,775
Mar-25 2,137 2,138 2,123 2,133 2,137 2,130 -7 119,206 525,719
May-25 2,230 2,236 2,219 2,228 2,234 2,227 -7 526,813 1,135,305
Jul-25 2,258 2,263 2,247 2,258 2,260 2,255 -5 42,545 243,636
Sep-25 2,279 2,284 2,271 2,280 2,282 2,277 -5 17,567 57,803
Nov-25 2,234 2,237 2,220 2,229 2,236 2,228 -8 9,335 39,737
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,325,332 lots, or 63.42 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,873 2,897 2,840 2,862 2,873 2,869 -4 215 7,990
Mar-25 2,891 2,904 2,848 2,866 2,891 2,883 -8 93,888 352,666
May-25 2,718 2,728 2,671 2,688 2,720 2,703 -17 1,895,027 2,292,291
Jul-25 2,705 2,711 2,653 2,666 2,706 2,686 -20 59,331 260,924
Aug-25 2,849 2,854 2,806 2,820 2,850 2,833 -17 19,770 146,811
Sep-25 2,855 2,863 2,813 2,828 2,858 2,840 -18 210,911 863,224
Nov-25 2,876 2,883 2,835 2,850 2,877 2,861 -16 30,482 191,585
Dec-25 2,937 2,950 2,908 2,921 2,935 2,930 -5 15,708 29,834
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,404,553 lots, or 11.93 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,528 9,578 9,490 9,500 9,916 9,520 -396 124 1,269
Feb-25 9,366 9,432 9,226 9,386 9,540 9,320 -220 36,753 22,371
Mar-25 9,006 9,062 8,858 9,036 9,212 8,968 -244 18,528 14,841
Apr-25 8,732 8,780 8,600 8,764 8,906 8,696 -210 1,723 1,122
May-25 8,470 8,558 8,372 8,530 8,648 8,482 -166 1,269,242 484,663
Jun-25 8,374 8,374 8,236 8,374 8,508 8,332 -176 275 607
Jul-25 8,276 8,278 8,152 8,250 8,362 8,228 -134 323 619
Aug-25 8,160 8,224 8,090 8,166 8,296 8,174 -122 101 175
Sep-25 8,098 8,198 8,048 8,146 8,220 8,128 -92 77,050 79,681
Oct-25 8,070 8,154 8,022 8,116 8,164 8,094 -70 157 454
Nov-25 8,028 8,144 8,010 8,094 8,154 8,076 -78 157 228
Dec-25 8,010 8,104 8,010 8,080 8,126 8,058 -68 120 112
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 602,709 lots, or 46.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,700 7,700 7,660 7,692 7,830 7,680 -150 116 2,024
Mar-25 7,812 7,834 7,678 7,692 7,894 7,742 -152 7,102 21,981
May-25 7,730 7,758 7,590 7,612 7,812 7,670 -142 537,549 656,822
Jul-25 7,642 7,666 7,526 7,550 7,694 7,602 -92 1,888 7,203
Aug-25 7,686 7,700 7,560 7,586 7,736 7,642 -94 121 567
Sep-25 7,644 7,676 7,530 7,568 7,708 7,612 -96 55,867 121,658
Nov-25 7,682 7,696 7,564 7,614 7,744 7,640 -104 52 916
Dec-25 7,694 7,696 7,582 7,594 7,724 7,646 -78 14 38
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322