Christmas is known as the season of giving, for the most part anyway. Amongst all the chaos of family, delicious meals, and unwrapping gifts, there’s always that one reminder that it is at times more fun to give than the get. Only try telling that to a 1, 3, or 5 year old.. Their responses are not always the best, but at times they’ll surprise you. I think the whole giving part gets more fun as you get older. I guess maybe that’s the reason Santa isn’t the most strapping young man. In terms of the commodities this week, Santa, aka Mr. Market, was a little more generous, as most ags were higher. Albeit the gains may have been limited in some cases, oats were the only to see a loss on the week. What do they know anyway?..
Corn futures are continuing their upward swing, with a 4th consecutive week higher, as Marc was up 7 ¾ cent (1.74%). The trade was overall quiet on the holiday market, but bulls did manage to come out on top. Short covering from the bean side, mainly meal, provided spillover support. EIA data showed ethanol production ticking slightly higher, up 4,000 barrels per day to 1.107 million bpd in the week of 12/20. Stocks of ethanol were building by 438,000 barrels to 23.074 million barrels. Export Sales data saw 2024/25 corn bookings back up to a 3-week high of 1.71 MMT for the week ending on December 19. That took export commitments to 38.02 MMT, which is 60% of the fresh US export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 57%.
Wheat found some buying get spurred in this week, as all three markets were in the green. Chicago March was back up 13 1/2 cents (2.53%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a gain of 9 3/4 cents (1.79%) this week. MPLS March was 3 3/4 cents (-0.64%) higher since last Friday. Precip is in the forecast for some SRW areas, with HRW missing out on much of the moisture. Algeria issued a large export tender this week that ended with a total of 1.17 MMT of wheat purchased. Although the origin was likely Russian, the large splash is a positive sign for demand. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business improving to a 25-week high at 612,408 MT during the week of 12/19. That took export sale commitments to 16.93 MMT, which is now 73% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 81% average selling pace.
Soybeans came out on a positive side of trade this week as January was up 5 ½ cents. Bean oil was up just 4 ticks on the week, thanks to Friday trade. Much of the strength came from the meal side, as that shot up $6.40 in January and $8.30 in March. The main reason for the meal support was dryness creeping into Argentina’s forecast for next week and the first 10 day of January. Mix that with a record spec short in meal and that makes a recipe for short covering, even in a thin holiday market. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 978,351 MT, the lowest sales total we have seen this marketing year. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 39.68 MMT. That is 80% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 78% average pace.
Live cattle were busy taking back most of last week’s losses, as February was down $2.25 (1.19%). Cash trade was slow to develop this week with $192-193 reported in the South, up $1-2, and the North $1 higher at $196. Feeders were the leaders this go ‘round, up $5.775 (2.26%) in the January contract on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $3.83 week/week to $258.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $31.25/cwt. Choice was down $6.53 (2.1%) to $322.38, while Select was $5.22 higher (1.8%) to $291.13. Weekly beef production was down 11.4% from the same week last year at 376.2 million lbs. Year to date production is down 0.6% on 3.7% fewer head sent to slaughter. Beef stocks at the end of November were reported at 440.5 million lbs, which was down 3.69% from last year and 1.8% above October per the seasonal shift.
Hogs pushed through a slightly bearish Hogs & Pigs report as Feb was up 50 cents (0.65%) this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 89 cents this week at $85.10 as of December 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $2.21 (2.3%) this week to $95.07. The ham was the only primal reported higher, with the picnic and belly the leaders to the downside, $7.04 and 8.13 lower respectively. Pork production totaled 444 million lbs this week, back down 8.1% from the same week last year. On the year, production is up 1.1%, with hog slaughter up 0.6%. November 30 pork stocks were 391.08 million lbs according to the NASS Cold Storage report, which was the tightest stocks for any month since August 2010 and the lowest November total since 1997. The quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed the December 1 inventory at 75.845 million head, a 0.51% increase from last year. Hogs kept for breeding were up just 0.08% at 6.004 million, as market hogs were up 0.54% at 68.841 million head.
Cotton futures put on a rebound this week, as the outside market provided some support. March was up 83 points since last Friday, a 1.22% bounce. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales up again from the week prior at 279,056 RB of cotton sold in the week of 12/19, the largest total in 4 weeks. Shipments were back up to 140,484 RB. Commitments are now at 7.49 million RB, which is 71% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 77% of USDA’s export projection by now. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down another 54 points this week, to 54.55 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Next week will again be limited on trade due to the New Years Day holiday. We will see the Export Inspections report on Monday morning per normal. Tuesday is first notice day for January soybean complex futures, as well as the last trade day for December live cattle futures The markets will close at a normal time on Tuesday, but are closed on Wednesday in observance of the holiday. We will again get a hard open on Thursday morning. EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report should be published on Thursday morning. The monthly domestic use data via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be out on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, FAS will release the weekly Export Sales report, delayed due to the holiday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March Soybeans had a decent week, considering the fact we were looking at contract lows last week. After breaking out of a Bollinger pinch to the downside last week and spiking to the 1.618 Fib expansion support at $9.53, the market recovered. An RSI buy signal led the market back to the Bollinger midline at $9.88 ¼ on Thursday with the upper band at $10.14 ¾. March took out the 1/3 speedline at $9.89 on Thursday as well and held a retest on Friday. Next up is the 40-day moving average at $9.99 ¾, with a 38.2 Fib retracement resistance off the fall high at $10.05 ½. If we can get another extended look at drier weather in Argentina by Monday, the spec shorts in meal may be forced to cover more, which would help the beans. Still, we have to remember that there are plenty in Brazil, and the bean market is reluctant to get long ahead of Trump taking office in less than a month with all of the trade uncertainty.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2024 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.
Season of Giving. Ag Marketing Report 12/30/2024
Christmas is known as the season of giving, for the most part anyway. Amongst all the chaos of family, delicious meals, and unwrapping gifts, there’s always that one reminder that it is at times more fun to give than the get. Only try telling that to a 1, 3, or 5 year old.. Their responses are not always the best, but at times they’ll surprise you. I think the whole giving part gets more fun as you get older. I guess maybe that’s the reason Santa isn’t the most strapping young man. In terms of the commodities this week, Santa, aka Mr. Market, was a little more generous, as most ags were higher. Albeit the gains may have been limited in some cases, oats were the only to see a loss on the week. What do they know anyway?..
Corn futures are continuing their upward swing, with a 4th consecutive week higher, as Marc was up 7 ¾ cent (1.74%). The trade was overall quiet on the holiday market, but bulls did manage to come out on top. Short covering from the bean side, mainly meal, provided spillover support. EIA data showed ethanol production ticking slightly higher, up 4,000 barrels per day to 1.107 million bpd in the week of 12/20. Stocks of ethanol were building by 438,000 barrels to 23.074 million barrels. Export Sales data saw 2024/25 corn bookings back up to a 3-week high of 1.71 MMT for the week ending on December 19. That took export commitments to 38.02 MMT, which is 60% of the fresh US export forecast and still ahead of the average sales pace of 57%.
Wheat found some buying get spurred in this week, as all three markets were in the green. Chicago March was back up 13 1/2 cents (2.53%) on the week. March Kansas City posted a gain of 9 3/4 cents (1.79%) this week. MPLS March was 3 3/4 cents (-0.64%) higher since last Friday. Precip is in the forecast for some SRW areas, with HRW missing out on much of the moisture. Algeria issued a large export tender this week that ended with a total of 1.17 MMT of wheat purchased. Although the origin was likely Russian, the large splash is a positive sign for demand. The weekly Export Sales report showed US wheat export business improving to a 25-week high at 612,408 MT during the week of 12/19. That took export sale commitments to 16.93 MMT, which is now 73% of the USDA forecast for exports and still lagging the 81% average selling pace.
Soybeans came out on a positive side of trade this week as January was up 5 ½ cents. Bean oil was up just 4 ticks on the week, thanks to Friday trade. Much of the strength came from the meal side, as that shot up $6.40 in January and $8.30 in March. The main reason for the meal support was dryness creeping into Argentina’s forecast for next week and the first 10 day of January. Mix that with a record spec short in meal and that makes a recipe for short covering, even in a thin holiday market. This week’s Export Sales report tallied 2024/25 soybean bookings at 978,351 MT, the lowest sales total we have seen this marketing year. That took the accumulated shipped and unshipped sales to 39.68 MMT. That is 80% of USDA’s expected export total for the marketing year, above the 78% average pace.
Live cattle were busy taking back most of last week’s losses, as February was down $2.25 (1.19%). Cash trade was slow to develop this week with $192-193 reported in the South, up $1-2, and the North $1 higher at $196. Feeders were the leaders this go ‘round, up $5.775 (2.26%) in the January contract on the week. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was down $3.83 week/week to $258.32. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher this week, as the Chc/Sel spread widened to $31.25/cwt. Choice was down $6.53 (2.1%) to $322.38, while Select was $5.22 higher (1.8%) to $291.13. Weekly beef production was down 11.4% from the same week last year at 376.2 million lbs. Year to date production is down 0.6% on 3.7% fewer head sent to slaughter. Beef stocks at the end of November were reported at 440.5 million lbs, which was down 3.69% from last year and 1.8% above October per the seasonal shift.
Hogs pushed through a slightly bearish Hogs & Pigs report as Feb was up 50 cents (0.65%) this week. The CME Lean Hog Index was back up 89 cents this week at $85.10 as of December 23. USDA’s Pork Carcass Cutout was back down $2.21 (2.3%) this week to $95.07. The ham was the only primal reported higher, with the picnic and belly the leaders to the downside, $7.04 and 8.13 lower respectively. Pork production totaled 444 million lbs this week, back down 8.1% from the same week last year. On the year, production is up 1.1%, with hog slaughter up 0.6%. November 30 pork stocks were 391.08 million lbs according to the NASS Cold Storage report, which was the tightest stocks for any month since August 2010 and the lowest November total since 1997. The quarterly Hogs & Pigs report showed the December 1 inventory at 75.845 million head, a 0.51% increase from last year. Hogs kept for breeding were up just 0.08% at 6.004 million, as market hogs were up 0.54% at 68.841 million head.
Cotton futures put on a rebound this week, as the outside market provided some support. March was up 83 points since last Friday, a 1.22% bounce. The weekly Export Sales report tallied cotton sales up again from the week prior at 279,056 RB of cotton sold in the week of 12/19, the largest total in 4 weeks. Shipments were back up to 140,484 RB. Commitments are now at 7.49 million RB, which is 71% of the USDA forecast, compared to the normal sales pace of 77% of USDA’s export projection by now. The FSA Adjusted World Price for cotton was down another 54 points this week, to 54.55 cents/lb.
Market Watch
Next week will again be limited on trade due to the New Years Day holiday. We will see the Export Inspections report on Monday morning per normal. Tuesday is first notice day for January soybean complex futures, as well as the last trade day for December live cattle futures The markets will close at a normal time on Tuesday, but are closed on Wednesday in observance of the holiday. We will again get a hard open on Thursday morning. EIA’s weekly Petroleum Status Report should be published on Thursday morning. The monthly domestic use data via the Grain Crushing, Fats & Oils, and Cotton Systems reports will be out on Thursday afternoon. On Friday, FAS will release the weekly Export Sales report, delayed due to the holiday.
Tech Talk: March Soybeans
March Soybeans had a decent week, considering the fact we were looking at contract lows last week. After breaking out of a Bollinger pinch to the downside last week and spiking to the 1.618 Fib expansion support at $9.53, the market recovered. An RSI buy signal led the market back to the Bollinger midline at $9.88 ¼ on Thursday with the upper band at $10.14 ¾. March took out the 1/3 speedline at $9.89 on Thursday as well and held a retest on Friday. Next up is the 40-day moving average at $9.99 ¾, with a 38.2 Fib retracement resistance off the fall high at $10.05 ½. If we can get another extended look at drier weather in Argentina by Monday, the spec shorts in meal may be forced to cover more, which would help the beans. Still, we have to remember that there are plenty in Brazil, and the bean market is reluctant to get long ahead of Trump taking office in less than a month with all of the trade uncertainty.
There is a risk of loss in futures and options trading. Similar risks exist for cash commodity producers. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copyright 2024 Brugler Marketing & Management. All rights reserved.