Grains Report 12/27/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 27
For the week ended Dec 19, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 612.4 12.6 16764.2 15133.6 5197.8 39.6
hrw 196.7 12.6 3950.2 2629.8 1191.8 12.6
srw 24.7 0.0 2573.5 4292.5 850.8 27.0
hrs 114.0 0.0 5469.5 4833.4 1657.2 0.0
white 259.1 0.0 4454.9 3016.8 1368.0 0.0
durum 18.0 0.0 316.0 361.1 130.0 0.0
corn 1711.3 10.0 38023.9 29421.2 23278.6 860.6
soybeans 978.4 125.0 39686.7 36124.6 12940.3 144.2
soymeal 389.6 96.0 8100.3 7057.0 4662.9 103.3
soyoil 40.4 0.0 526.7 32.3 392.3 0.3
upland cotton 279.1 29.5 7485.9 8492.4 4934.0 467.9
pima cotton 2.6 0.0 238.8 187.3 83.3 0.0
sorghum 0.0 0.0 1097.9 3914.4 92.8 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 30.3 16.6 19.1 3.0
rice 91.6 0.0 1844.7 1811.3 606.3 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher on what appeared to be no selling interest. World Wheat demand has been strong, but there has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 550, 554, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 541, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 557, 566, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 579, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 602, 606, and 6 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday in some light volume speculative selling after making a major new leg down on the daily charts last week. Commercials and speculators seemed to be on both sides of the market, but speculators seemed to be the better sellers. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices, but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1389, 1369, and 1356 January and resistance is at 1439, 1457, and 1486 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on some new buying and no selling interest. There were no new export sales announcements from USDA. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. Sellers were hard to find with most producers still on holiday break. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 448, 441, and 436 March, and resistance is at 458, 464, and 470 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 324, 320, and 313 March, and resistance is at 339, 350, and 356 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on Tuesday and Soybean Oil was lower. It seemed that there was no selling interest in futures yesterday. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 945, 938, and 926 January, and resistance is at 989, 1003, and 1014 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up. Support is at 294.00, 289.00, and 285.00 January, and resistance is at 310.00, 312.00, and 319.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 3880, 3780, and 3720 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4350 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher. The charts show that a low has been completed and a new uptrend could be underway. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 612.00, 600.00, and 584.00 January, with resistance at 626.00, 633.00, and 643.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4290, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4570, 4650, and 4770 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light and scattered precipitation. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1175.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1140.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1130.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1037.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1005.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1180.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1145.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1135.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1042.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1180.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1020.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,050.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 492.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.468)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,784 lots, or 6.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,823 3,840 3,809 3,834 3,822 3,824 2 11,383 15,226
Mar-25 3,860 3,873 3,847 3,866 3,854 3,859 5 17,800 42,218
May-25 3,927 3,933 3,905 3,926 3,926 3,919 -7 120,099 191,663
Jul-25 3,931 3,955 3,927 3,949 3,943 3,940 -3 2,663 9,445
Sep-25 3,977 3,977 3,952 3,971 3,968 3,965 -3 2,804 16,937
Nov-25 3,968 3,975 3,951 3,975 3,973 3,963 -10 35 333
Corn
Turnover: 1,083,832 lots, or 23.95 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,085 2,117 2,083 2,106 2,081 2,099 18 65,558 90,982
Mar-25 2,126 2,156 2,125 2,147 2,123 2,142 19 165,329 563,420
May-25 2,208 2,243 2,206 2,234 2,204 2,227 23 757,547 1,100,060
Jul-25 2,239 2,273 2,239 2,262 2,237 2,258 21 56,101 206,936
Sep-25 2,254 2,290 2,254 2,279 2,251 2,273 22 26,686 57,091
Nov-25 2,218 2,238 2,217 2,227 2,216 2,225 9 12,611 21,867
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,925,095 lots, or 52.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,878 2,892 2,863 2,863 2,852 2,878 26 25,793 37,819
Mar-25 2,852 2,886 2,835 2,844 2,836 2,861 25 60,533 352,095
May-25 2,672 2,698 2,665 2,670 2,649 2,679 30 1,528,419 2,467,545
Jul-25 2,659 2,696 2,657 2,669 2,645 2,676 31 33,260 241,985
Aug-25 2,802 2,842 2,798 2,816 2,786 2,820 34 10,355 143,565
Sep-25 2,806 2,849 2,804 2,821 2,794 2,827 33 235,411 829,574
Nov-25 2,829 2,874 2,827 2,843 2,816 2,852 36 27,129 202,714
Dec-25 2,876 2,924 2,873 2,896 2,866 2,901 35 4,195 14,233
Palm Oil
Turnover: 834,725 lots, or 73.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,770 9,864 9,738 9,834 9,700 9,808 108 24,756 29,328
Feb-25 9,538 9,636 9,516 9,602 9,462 9,576 114 14,341 22,511
Mar-25 9,242 9,348 9,236 9,316 9,204 9,302 98 6,297 16,401
Apr-25 9,004 9,076 8,968 9,034 8,934 9,028 94 472 1,338
May-25 8,758 8,828 8,722 8,786 8,704 8,774 70 764,005 480,050
Jun-25 8,580 8,618 8,530 8,594 8,520 8,562 42 98 670
Jul-25 8,452 8,494 8,400 8,458 8,400 8,438 38 97 702
Aug-25 8,340 8,390 8,324 8,370 8,312 8,348 36 27 150
Sep-25 8,272 8,342 8,244 8,292 8,250 8,290 40 24,571 68,039
Oct-25 8,196 8,242 8,182 8,212 8,174 8,200 26 23 418
Nov-25 8,154 8,204 8,138 8,174 8,140 8,168 28 28 194
Dec-25 8,124 8,134 8,118 8,118 8,096 8,128 32 10 42
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 441,477 lots, or 34.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,760 7,842 7,728 7,792 7,724 7,784 60 12,932 13,726
Mar-25 7,772 7,862 7,742 7,812 7,746 7,814 68 3,363 22,139
May-25 7,682 7,772 7,656 7,716 7,656 7,714 58 396,813 677,609
Jul-25 7,592 7,670 7,572 7,620 7,570 7,620 50 1,144 7,081
Aug-25 7,606 7,696 7,594 7,660 7,594 7,656 62 102 571
Sep-25 7,590 7,668 7,568 7,618 7,576 7,620 44 27,043 114,985
Nov-25 7,600 7,688 7,600 7,652 7,602 7,642 40 56 918
Dec-25 7,690 7,728 7,690 7,728 7,672 7,710 38 24 120
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322