Grains Report 12/26/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower on weaker world prices. World Wheat demand has been strong with Saudi Arabia buying over 800,000 tons of optional origin Wheat as tender results were announced early this week that likely to come from Russia, Europe, and perhaps South America. There has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 550, 554, and 561 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 541, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 557, 566, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 602, 606, and 6 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher on Tuesday in some light volume short covering after making a major new leg down on the daily charts. Commercials and speculators seemed to be on both sides of the market. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1389, 1369, and 1356 January and resistance is at 1439, 1457, and 1486 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on Tuesday in consolidation trading. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. Oats were lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 441, 436, and 431 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 458 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 324, 320, and 313 March, and resistance is at 350, 356, and 364 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal closed higher on Tuesday and Soybean Oil was lower. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 945, 938, and 926 January, and resistance is at 989, 1003, and 1014 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 285.00, 278.00, and 272.00 January, and resistance is at 299.00, 304.00, and 309.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 3880, 3780, and 3720 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4350 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was a little lower today. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Chart trends are down. Canola was higher. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. Prices tested the breakout area higher and held last week, so the uptrend might be starting again. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 600.00, 584.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 626.00, 633.00, and 643.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4290, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4570, 4650, and 4770 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light and scattered precipitation. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 26
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1170.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1135.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1125.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1030.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1005.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1175.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1140.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 1130.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1,175.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1,010.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 5,000.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 489.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.467)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 26
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 142,128 lots, or 5.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,840 3,840 3,811 3,823 3,807 3,822 15 8,546 21,380
Mar-25 3,860 3,869 3,843 3,860 3,841 3,854 13 7,960 42,023
May-25 3,928 3,938 3,915 3,924 3,912 3,926 14 119,537 192,220
Jul-25 3,944 3,956 3,934 3,943 3,925 3,943 18 2,773 9,901
Sep-25 3,967 3,979 3,957 3,966 3,948 3,968 20 3,256 16,584
Nov-25 3,977 3,981 3,962 3,972 3,957 3,973 16 56 312
Corn
Turnover: 610,815 lots, or 13.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,084 2,086 2,077 2,081 2,079 2,081 2 60,452 115,183
Mar-25 2,128 2,128 2,118 2,124 2,119 2,123 4 98,151 554,075
May-25 2,206 2,211 2,199 2,204 2,203 2,204 1 401,944 1,104,236
Jul-25 2,237 2,242 2,232 2,237 2,234 2,237 3 26,586 204,549
Sep-25 2,249 2,256 2,245 2,256 2,245 2,251 6 17,396 52,421
Nov-25 2,218 2,222 2,212 2,218 2,215 2,216 1 6,286 20,227
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,515,566 lots, or 40.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,844 2,873 2,831 2,872 2,834 2,852 18 26,853 49,943
Mar-25 2,836 2,858 2,813 2,852 2,815 2,836 21 38,372 353,359
May-25 2,638 2,672 2,624 2,668 2,631 2,649 18 1,272,960 2,511,561
Jul-25 2,640 2,660 2,627 2,658 2,633 2,645 12 18,723 241,777
Aug-25 2,782 2,802 2,770 2,801 2,778 2,786 8 3,468 142,593
Sep-25 2,790 2,810 2,776 2,808 2,784 2,794 10 134,411 812,955
Nov-25 2,810 2,831 2,799 2,831 2,808 2,816 8 18,414 199,045
Dec-25 2,871 2,876 2,855 2,876 2,869 2,866 -3 2,365 12,913
Palm Oil
Turnover: 832,704 lots, or 72.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,672 9,776 9,638 9,758 9,712 9,700 -12 26,031 35,122
Feb-25 9,460 9,550 9,364 9,508 9,498 9,462 -36 14,141 20,759
Mar-25 9,186 9,280 9,110 9,242 9,252 9,204 -48 5,873 15,677
Apr-25 8,942 9,018 8,866 8,986 8,994 8,934 -60 640 1,302
May-25 8,704 8,774 8,638 8,740 8,770 8,704 -66 762,623 478,105
Jun-25 8,556 8,580 8,466 8,562 8,556 8,520 -36 180 651
Jul-25 8,402 8,452 8,348 8,432 8,442 8,400 -42 74 687
Aug-25 8,296 8,358 8,290 8,344 8,378 8,312 -66 20 148
Sep-25 8,260 8,292 8,200 8,256 8,278 8,250 -28 23,085 64,386
Oct-25 8,150 8,188 8,138 8,180 8,222 8,174 -48 16 417
Nov-25 8,124 8,164 8,114 8,164 8,168 8,140 -28 18 196
Dec-25 8,082 8,120 8,082 8,120 8,132 8,096 -36 3 44
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 362,704 lots, or 27.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,702 7,758 7,684 7,750 7,742 7,724 -18 10,836 20,337
Mar-25 7,758 7,776 7,710 7,764 7,760 7,746 -14 3,065 21,973
May-25 7,640 7,692 7,616 7,682 7,678 7,656 -22 327,307 683,910
Jul-25 7,564 7,598 7,538 7,592 7,582 7,570 -12 631 7,028
Aug-25 7,592 7,614 7,578 7,612 7,608 7,594 -14 52 538
Sep-25 7,592 7,598 7,548 7,586 7,590 7,576 -14 20,798 115,491
Nov-25 7,590 7,622 7,580 7,622 7,616 7,602 -14 12 932
Dec-25 7,668 7,686 7,666 7,686 7,680 7,672 -8 3 139
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322