Softs Report 12/23/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again last week and made new lows for the move and new contract lows. The trends are down. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. The government has said it will take stimulus measures for the economy there next year. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for good US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are down. Support is at 67.50, 66.40, and 65.80 March, with resistance of 69.10, 69.90 and 70.40 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 276,603
: Positions :
: 32,815 77,619 67,450 76,802 95,252 85,236 21,928 262,302 262,249: 14,301 14,354
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,725) :
: 225 6,293 4,864 3,061 -3,595 1,988 1,555 10,138 9,117: -413 608
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.9 28.1 24.4 27.8 34.4 30.8 7.9 94.8 94.8: 5.2 5.2
: Total Traders: 304 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 104 98 66 58 44 25 241 228:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher yesterday and the chart trends are mixed on the daily charts and are still turning up on the weekly charts. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are up. Support is at 521.00, 516.00, and 502.00 January, with resistance at 551.00, 556.00, and 562.00 January

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 17,052 :
: Positions :
: 2,342 11,127 574 81 301 5,610 80 1 1,255 273 4,194 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 :
: 321 1,472 -3 3 22 788 80 -83 373 1 906 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 65.3 3.4 0.5 1.8 32.9 0.5 0.0 7.4 1.6 24.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 55 :
: 11 10 . . . 20 . . 11 5 8 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed lower last week as tight Arabica availability went against increasing availability of Robusta with the harvest of Robusta continuing and expanding in both Vietnam and Brazil. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 298.82 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 342.00, 347.00 and 353.00 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4910, 4770, and 4630 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 257,008
: Positions :
: 49,508 11,352 84,546 52,591 143,955 60,311 10,656 246,956 250,510: 10,052 6,498
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: -21,269) :
: -1,329 -238 -11,634 -7,467 -8,770 -1,092 -173 -21,522 -20,815: 253 -454
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.3 4.4 32.9 20.5 56.0 23.5 4.1 96.1 97.5: 3.9 2.5
: Total Traders: 372 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 128 62 100 83 115 51 21 301 266:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed moderately higher on Friday on what seemed to be speculative short covering, but both markets were lower for the week. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are down in both markets on the daily charts and on the weekly charts in both markets. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 1920, 1880, and 1850 March and resistance is at 2070, 2140, and 2200 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 503.00, 495.00, and 490.00 March, with resistance at 526.00, 538.00, and 545.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,072,224
: Positions :
: 95,440 143,208 230,925 391,500 596,484 282,222 42,503 1,000,088 1,013,120: 72,136 59,104
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: -5,829) :
: -18,539 11,700 -9,699 9,866 -12,836 15,874 1,545 -2,497 -9,289: -3,332 3,460
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.9 13.4 21.5 36.5 55.6 26.3 4.0 93.3 94.5: 6.7 5.5
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 59 80 69 67 43 20 208 184:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week, but well off the highs on what appeared to be speculative profit taking seen later in the week. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very dry in West Africa lately. The trade also noted ICE-certified cocoa stocks have been rising of late, but that overall cocoa supply is set to remain sharply constrained for several seasons due to structural problems in Ivory Coast and Ghana.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10660, 10250, and 9790 March, with resistance at 13000, 13600, and 14200 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 9100, 8960, and 8500 March, with resistance at 10200, 10500, and 10700 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 182,864
: Positions :
: 34,669 13,740 50,576 62,465 104,569 22,681 8,276 170,391 177,161: 12,472 5,702
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: -315) :
: -1,287 57 -1,061 2,071 836 180 200 -96 33: -220 -349
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.0 7.5 27.7 34.2 57.2 12.4 4.5 93.2 96.9: 6.8 3.1
: Total Traders: 175 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 68 33 60 35 41 28 13 156 123:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322