Grains Report 12/23/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower in Chicago, but higher in the other markets with the best price action on Friday seen in Minneapolis. World Wheat demand has been strong with Saudi Arabia buying over 800,000 tons of optional origin Wheat as tender results were announced early this week that likely to come from Russia, Europe, and perhaps South America. There has not been much demand in world markets for US Wheat. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 554 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 541, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 557, 566, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 595, 602, and 606 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 527,377
: Positions :
: 66,541 169,639 158,896 117,991 77,634 148,188 85,523 491,616 491,692: 35,760 35,685
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 24,327) :
: 2,534 10,418 11,470 8,539 -9,945 -1,717 12,551 20,825 24,494: 3,502 -167
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 32.2 30.1 22.4 14.7 28.1 16.2 93.2 93.2: 6.8 6.8
: Total Traders: 408 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 115 128 103 102 47 30 329 308:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 287,856
: Positions :
: 33,444 71,829 68,330 66,361 85,226 100,315 42,940 268,450 268,326: 19,406 19,530
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,283) :
: 1,892 -1,922 -1,223 1,744 4,791 -571 826 1,843 2,472: 440 -189
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.6 25.0 23.7 23.1 29.6 34.8 14.9 93.3 93.2: 6.7 6.8
: Total Traders: 246 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 51 60 60 71 69 37 21 191 183:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MIAX FUTURES EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 87,078 :
: Positions :
: 42,940 22,325 3,193 0 259 11,762 38,779 8,616 5,127 1,977 4,420 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 :
: 1,186 2,673 -86 0 10 2,138 -1,907 1,192 -244 1,168 134 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.3 25.6 3.7 0.0 0.3 13.5 44.5 9.9 5.9 2.3 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 124 :
: 52 35 8 0 . 10 24 11 11 7 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower last week on what appeared to be liquidation selling by market longs. Commercials and speculators seemed to be sellers. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices but the difference is now less to world buyers as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1394, 1482, and 1370 January and resistance is at 1439, 1457, and 1486 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,635 :
: Positions :
: 6,276 5,708 0 206 0 223 2,271 115 1,818 122 930 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 :
: -192 -384 0 12 0 -86 -113 20 -111 -57 35 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.0 53.7 0.0 1.9 0.0 2.1 21.4 1.1 17.1 1.1 8.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 62 :
: 25 16 0 . 0 . 12 . 13 5 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week on what appeared to be new buying tied to stronger weekly export sales. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were lower.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 441, 436, and 431 March, and resistance is at 448, 452, and 458 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 350, 348, and 339 March, and resistance is at 364, 370, and 374 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,029,695
: Positions :
: 240,401 219,473 530,574 612,497 960,504 482,438 102,672 1,865,910 1,813,222: 163,785 216,473
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 21,013) :
: -20,521 -9,881 7,282 11,646 20,357 25,485 -8,601 23,893 9,157: -2,880 11,857
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 11.8 10.8 26.1 30.2 47.3 23.8 5.1 91.9 89.3: 8.1 10.7
: Total Traders: 828 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 134 149 184 368 412 53 29 661 679:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower and Soybean Meal closed higher last week on the back of very strong weekly export sales reports for Soybeans. Meal was supported on spreads against Soybean Oil and posted a reversal on the weekly charts. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News: China and unknown destinations each bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 945, 938, and 926 January, and resistance is at 989, 1003, and 1014 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 285.00, 278.00, and 272.00 January, and resistance is at 299.00, 304.00, and 309.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 3880, 3780, and 3720 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4350 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,187,520
: Positions :
: 93,250 196,208 374,031 457,304 432,363 203,093 102,880 1,127,678 1,105,483: 59,842 82,037
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 30,691) :
: -8,681 18,000 17,226 20,984 -8,622 -434 1,548 29,096 28,152: 1,595 2,538
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 7.9 16.5 31.5 38.5 36.4 17.1 8.7 95.0 93.1: 5.0 6.9
: Total Traders: 589 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 110 169 182 220 215 48 29 492 492:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 636,951
: Positions :
: 79,060 105,840 136,179 230,530 320,619 157,469 43,001 603,238 605,640: 33,713 31,311
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 6,949) :
: -4,111 8,075 9,343 5,999 -18,944 -2,573 3,874 8,659 2,349: -1,709 4,601
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 16.6 21.4 36.2 50.3 24.7 6.8 94.7 95.1: 5.3 4.9
: Total Traders: 352 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 89 80 104 112 99 45 26 300 264:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 714,466
: Positions :
: 66,270 156,709 201,371 247,554 277,620 136,052 43,383 651,247 679,082: 63,219 35,383
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 29,645) :
: -5,732 10,896 16,750 17,009 1,411 292 -1,424 28,319 27,633: 1,326 2,012
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.3 21.9 28.2 34.6 38.9 19.0 6.1 91.2 95.0: 8.8 5.0
: Total Traders: 367 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 86 101 137 119 37 21 304 283:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week on ideas that Palm is overpriced in the world market when compared to other vegetable oils. The market closed higher today. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Canola was higher with Chicago. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. Prices tested the breakout area higher and held last week, so the uptrend might be starting again. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 584.00, 577.00, and 570.00 January, with resistance at 612.00, 618.00, and 626.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4290, 4170, and 4070 March, with resistance at 4540, 4650, and 4770 March.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 27,088 :
: Positions :
: 23,320 12,681 520 5,400 650 870 3,200 0 418 3,840 1,300 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 :
: -140 160 0 80 0 0 120 0 0 -500 0 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 86.1 46.8 1.9 19.9 2.4 3.2 11.8 0.0 1.5 14.2 4.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 34 :
: 11 7 . 5 4 . . 0 . 9 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 251,641 :
: Positions :
: 186,679 99,115 11,627 9,484 2,839 9,777 91,754 16,596 9,725 17,286 11,570 :
: Changes from: December 10, 2024 :
: -21,950 -390 379 411 -29 -369 -25,831 -8,313 -2,038 2,097 -1,555 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 74.2 39.4 4.6 3.8 1.1 3.9 36.5 6.6 3.9 6.9 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 294 :
: 72 64 6 . 4 18 59 26 74 43 60 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mixed rain and snow. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1165.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1130.00 — Unquoted – –
Mar 1120.00 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1032.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1007.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1170.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Feb 1135.00 — Unquoted – –
Mar 1125.00 — Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1037.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1012.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1160.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 980.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,960.00 +60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 489.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4875)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 201,370 lots, or 7.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,769 3,775 3,750 3,767 3,742 3,764 22 50,320 42,628
Mar-25 3,775 3,808 3,775 3,795 3,769 3,796 27 11,892 42,210
May-25 3,815 3,857 3,806 3,845 3,797 3,838 41 132,463 174,289
Jul-25 3,829 3,872 3,825 3,862 3,815 3,858 43 3,669 10,651
Sep-25 3,858 3,894 3,854 3,886 3,840 3,880 40 2,966 16,634
Nov-25 3,884 3,910 3,884 3,892 3,863 3,899 36 60 285
Corn
Turnover: 806,690 lots, or 17.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,079 2,084 2,064 2,065 2,066 2,072 6 72,202 195,708
Mar-25 2,104 2,119 2,097 2,101 2,098 2,106 8 95,831 538,437
May-25 2,185 2,200 2,177 2,182 2,177 2,186 9 571,518 1,026,414
Jul-25 2,218 2,236 2,211 2,216 2,214 2,221 7 51,562 191,936
Sep-25 2,239 2,247 2,227 2,230 2,231 2,236 5 12,227 49,644
Nov-25 2,220 2,227 2,210 2,213 2,214 2,217 3 3,350 16,898
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,188,339 lots, or 58.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,800 2,831 2,789 2,815 2,757 2,810 53 74,337 107,864
Mar-25 2,799 2,820 2,784 2,806 2,762 2,797 35 63,699 357,114
May-25 2,638 2,659 2,608 2,616 2,600 2,627 27 1,791,827 2,581,872
Jul-25 2,638 2,663 2,614 2,624 2,609 2,633 24 25,210 238,560
Aug-25 2,794 2,807 2,758 2,767 2,759 2,777 18 10,490 142,952
Sep-25 2,801 2,815 2,765 2,776 2,765 2,788 23 191,566 797,251
Nov-25 2,818 2,840 2,792 2,802 2,786 2,815 29 25,251 205,331
Dec-25 2,923 2,935 2,892 2,900 2,892 2,913 21 5,959 10,865
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,556,540 lots, or 13.62 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,442 9,656 9,286 9,652 9,564 9,434 -130 117,904 49,283
Feb-25 9,326 9,504 9,150 9,496 9,408 9,298 -110 28,409 19,484
Mar-25 9,146 9,282 8,974 9,270 9,192 9,134 -58 12,165 14,734
Apr-25 8,922 9,052 8,770 9,044 8,974 8,916 -58 1,436 1,143
May-25 8,710 8,830 8,572 8,812 8,762 8,694 -68 1,351,481 461,142
Jun-25 8,562 8,636 8,424 8,626 8,592 8,560 -32 226 586
Jul-25 8,428 8,504 8,320 8,504 8,452 8,406 -46 376 573
Aug-25 8,326 8,376 8,250 8,376 8,344 8,300 -44 77 148
Sep-25 8,258 8,294 8,164 8,280 8,254 8,230 -24 44,372 55,837
Oct-25 8,160 8,192 8,108 8,188 8,160 8,150 -10 41 422
Nov-25 8,124 8,152 8,074 8,138 8,124 8,110 -14 40 177
Dec-25 8,100 8,108 8,014 8,086 8,080 8,082 2 13 45
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 556,022 lots, or 42.02 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,612 7,650 7,576 7,642 7,564 7,620 56 40,802 54,445
Mar-25 7,640 7,676 7,598 7,666 7,592 7,640 48 3,672 21,900
May-25 7,562 7,590 7,514 7,578 7,496 7,554 58 467,702 675,030
Jul-25 7,482 7,522 7,448 7,514 7,434 7,488 54 1,071 6,967
Aug-25 7,518 7,556 7,494 7,544 7,484 7,516 32 103 580
Sep-25 7,496 7,556 7,470 7,536 7,466 7,508 42 42,585 121,537
Nov-25 7,548 7,580 7,502 7,566 7,508 7,538 30 66 961
Dec-25 7,658 7,660 7,600 7,628 7,616 7,620 4 21 158
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322