Grains Report 12/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower in all three markets on follow through selling seen after a disappointing weekly export sales report. World Wheat demand has been strong with Saudi Arabia buying over 800,000 tons of optional origin Wheat as tender results were announced early this week that likely to come from Russia, Europe, and perhaps South America. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 528, 522, and 516 March, with resistance at 540, 550, and 554 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 541, 535, and 528 March, with resistance at 5567, 566, and 571 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 572, and 566 March, and resistance is at 592, 602, and 606 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower yesterday on what appeared to be liquidation selling by market longs. Commercials and speculators seemed to be sellers. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices but the difference is now less as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1436, 1415, and 1400 January and resistance is at 1500, 1513, and 1531 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday on what appeared to be new buying tied to stronger weekly export sales. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News: Colombia bought 150,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 436, 431, and 428 March, and resistance is at 441, 448, and 452 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 350, 348, and 339 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed higher yesterday on the back of very strong weekly export sales reports. Supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 945, 938, and 926 January, and resistance is at 975, 1989, and 1003 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 278.00, 272.00, and 266.00 January, and resistance is at 285.00, 291.00, and 294.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 3880, 3780, and 3720 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4350 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on ideas that Palm is overpriced in the world market when compared to other vegetable oils. Demand from China has not been good and demand from India has been reduced. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Canola was higher with Chicago. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 584.00, 577.00, and 570.00 January, with resistance at 612.00, 618.00, and 626.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4370, 4290, and 4170 March, with resistance at 4540, 4650, and 4770 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Light to moderate snow. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1140.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1115.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1010.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1145.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1120.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1015.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1145.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 975.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,900.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 485.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.505)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 164,820 lots, or 6.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,733 3,756 3,728 3,749 3,726 3,742 16 47,683 59,629
Mar-25 3,750 3,788 3,746 3,781 3,741 3,769 28 10,311 40,350
May-25 3,778 3,823 3,767 3,816 3,756 3,797 41 98,523 168,231
Jul-25 3,795 3,839 3,792 3,836 3,781 3,815 34 4,590 10,887
Sep-25 3,819 3,866 3,817 3,861 3,805 3,840 35 3,657 16,770
Nov-25 3,842 3,881 3,842 3,881 3,827 3,863 36 56 292
Corn
Turnover: 714,103 lots, or 15.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,065 2,075 2,057 2,073 2,071 2,066 -5 99,802 213,306
Mar-25 2,091 2,106 2,088 2,105 2,101 2,098 -3 90,903 533,924
May-25 2,173 2,186 2,168 2,184 2,180 2,177 -3 466,979 976,885
Jul-25 2,208 2,222 2,203 2,221 2,212 2,214 2 42,647 186,226
Sep-25 2,227 2,240 2,218 2,239 2,227 2,231 4 10,298 47,666
Nov-25 2,210 2,222 2,205 2,221 2,210 2,214 4 3,474 16,616
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,683,185 lots, or 70.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,740 2,798 2,719 2,790 2,735 2,757 22 118,556 138,172
Mar-25 2,723 2,798 2,722 2,792 2,722 2,762 40 60,418 359,834
May-25 2,567 2,637 2,561 2,633 2,565 2,600 35 2,116,166 2,666,258
Jul-25 2,579 2,643 2,571 2,639 2,574 2,609 35 28,180 237,746
Aug-25 2,727 2,793 2,722 2,791 2,724 2,759 35 13,676 143,146
Sep-25 2,736 2,802 2,729 2,799 2,732 2,765 33 284,698 786,015
Nov-25 2,762 2,826 2,757 2,824 2,760 2,786 26 55,558 200,832
Dec-25 2,866 2,929 2,866 2,927 2,866 2,892 26 5,933 9,726
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,411,507 lots, or 12.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,610 9,648 9,450 9,470 9,712 9,564 -148 110,507 63,098
Feb-25 9,420 9,490 9,338 9,360 9,538 9,408 -130 21,146 20,647
Mar-25 9,222 9,266 9,118 9,170 9,298 9,192 -106 9,587 14,845
Apr-25 9,004 9,046 8,892 8,954 9,082 8,974 -108 909 1,162
May-25 8,818 8,840 8,668 8,750 8,860 8,762 -98 1,236,483 450,483
Jun-25 8,618 8,646 8,496 8,566 8,664 8,592 -72 164 590
Jul-25 8,456 8,510 8,364 8,454 8,504 8,452 -52 155 588
Aug-25 8,334 8,390 8,272 8,374 8,408 8,344 -64 54 165
Sep-25 8,220 8,328 8,190 8,280 8,272 8,254 -18 32,381 51,092
Oct-25 8,166 8,234 8,100 8,212 8,168 8,160 -8 66 424
Nov-25 8,112 8,190 8,058 8,152 8,118 8,124 6 50 180
Dec-25 8,072 8,102 8,048 8,098 8,068 8,080 12 5 40
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 690,620 lots, or 51.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,536 7,646 7,502 7,636 7,578 7,564 -14 46,111 74,982
Mar-25 7,558 7,658 7,532 7,648 7,584 7,592 8 4,134 22,000
May-25 7,488 7,574 7,434 7,570 7,496 7,496 0 582,343 671,167
Jul-25 7,406 7,510 7,370 7,506 7,406 7,434 28 2,101 6,972
Aug-25 7,442 7,558 7,412 7,542 7,440 7,484 44 389 587
Sep-25 7,418 7,552 7,390 7,532 7,420 7,466 46 55,427 115,944
Nov-25 7,442 7,582 7,442 7,574 7,474 7,508 34 66 926
Dec-25 7,576 7,656 7,556 7,656 7,548 7,616 68 49 158
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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