Grains Report 12/19/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Dec 19
For the week ended Dec 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 457.9 0.0 16151.9 14857.1 4961.7 27.0
hrw 160.5 0.0 3753.5 2546.6 1013.0 0.0
srw 43.2 0.0 2548.9 4227.9 846.7 27.0
hrs 188.2 0.0 5355.5 4718.8 1684.6 0.0
white 52.9 0.0 4195.9 3002.8 1305.3 0.0
durum 13.2 0.0 298.0 361.0 112.0 0.0
corn 1174.6 2.5 36312.7 28179.1 22691.2 850.6
soybeans 1424.2 0.0 38708.4 35275.0 13535.2 19.2
soymeal 261.6 0.0 7710.7 6788.3 4565.4 7.3
soyoil 6.0 0.3 486.3 31.5 381.1 0.3
upland cotton 194.9 6.9 7206.8 8122.5 4795.4 438.5
pima cotton 0.5 0.0 236.2 183.3 94.0 0.0
sorghum -59.2 0.0 1097.9 3902.7 97.1 0.0
barley 0.1 0.0 29.3 16.6 18.8 3.0
rice 103.0 0.0 1753.2 1755.4 610.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower in all three markets after trading higher for a large part of the day. World Wheat demand has been strong with Saudi Arabia buying over 800,000 tons of optional origin Wheat as tender results were announced early this week that likely to come from Russia, Europe, and perhaps South America. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of steady to firm prices quoted in Russia and steady prices Argentina were around and helped keep the US market mostly steady in current ranges. Wheat farmers in the US planted the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded Wheat quality, but Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 540, 534, and 528 March, with resistance at 554, 560, and 571 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 544, 541, and 535 March, with resistance at 561, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 586, 585, and 579 March, and resistance is at 602, 606, and 611 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday, and the holiday market seems to be underway. The trends are down on the daily charts. Generally weak Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices but the difference is now less as the Real is much lower against the US Dollar.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1457, 1445, and 1434 January and resistance is at 1500, 1513, and 1531 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday on what appeared to be long liquidation after failing to hold support areas on the daily charts. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Oats were a little lower.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 436, 431, and 428 March, and resistance is at 441, 448, and 452 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to up. Support is at 350, 348, and 339 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products closed lower yesterday as supplies are very large now and look to get even bigger with the coming South American harvest. Talk that President Trump wants to stop the use of bio fuels as part of his war on the green economy hurt demand ideas for Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be a detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers have planted what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Demand has been very strong so far this year, in part as many buyers try to get bought ahead of any new tariffs that the Trump administration might impose. Even so, supplies are very large and ending stocks projections for the USDA WASDE reports are a burden for prices.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 227,200 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 950, 938, and 926 January, and resistance is at 975, 1989, and 1003 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 278.00, 272.00, and 266.00 January, and resistance is at 285.00, 291.00, and 294.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 3880, 3780, and 3720 January, with resistance at 4100, 4200, and 4350 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on continued Soybean Oil weakness. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. Canola was lower with Chicago. The charts show that a low has been completed but that the rally off the lows has run out for now. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 584.00, 577.00, and 570.00 January, with resistance at 601.00, 607.00, and 618.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 4470, 4370, and 4290 March, with resistance at 4540, 4650, and 4770 March.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered rain and snow showers. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1245.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1120.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 985.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1250.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Feb/Mar 1125.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1040.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 990.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 1120.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 965.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 4,900.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Jan 481.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.505)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 195,195 lots, or 7.31 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,729 3,741 3,711 3,733 3,764 3,726 -38 91,261 71,267
Mar-25 3,759 3,759 3,724 3,752 3,776 3,741 -35 11,289 40,309
May-25 3,779 3,779 3,739 3,775 3,792 3,756 -36 85,876 160,782
Jul-25 3,804 3,804 3,763 3,795 3,819 3,781 -38 3,727 9,755
Sep-25 3,829 3,831 3,789 3,820 3,844 3,805 -39 2,968 16,406
Nov-25 3,846 3,846 3,810 3,810 3,868 3,827 -41 74 298
Corn
Turnover: 947,245 lots, or 20.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,078 2,085 2,057 2,068 2,073 2,071 -2 162,556 252,439
Mar-25 2,111 2,115 2,087 2,099 2,102 2,101 -1 128,220 530,502
May-25 2,179 2,192 2,166 2,177 2,175 2,180 5 604,379 932,807
Jul-25 2,211 2,225 2,201 2,212 2,210 2,212 2 41,311 179,166
Sep-25 2,228 2,241 2,216 2,226 2,225 2,227 2 8,191 48,761
Nov-25 2,215 2,224 2,202 2,211 2,211 2,210 -1 2,588 15,567
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,227,950 lots, or 58.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,750 2,768 2,685 2,732 2,782 2,735 -47 225,403 163,068
Mar-25 2,710 2,742 2,698 2,733 2,735 2,722 -13 79,696 362,204
May-25 2,561 2,586 2,549 2,572 2,585 2,565 -20 1,665,243 2,752,639
Jul-25 2,570 2,592 2,559 2,581 2,590 2,574 -16 29,036 240,939
Aug-25 2,721 2,740 2,710 2,732 2,741 2,724 -17 6,168 142,722
Sep-25 2,730 2,749 2,717 2,740 2,751 2,732 -19 192,508 776,528
Nov-25 2,759 2,776 2,745 2,768 2,774 2,760 -14 22,257 205,686
Dec-25 2,860 2,886 2,848 2,873 2,866 2,866 0 7,639 8,385
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,609,003 lots, or 14.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 9,840 9,860 9,494 9,532 9,924 9,712 -212 241,239 84,005
Feb-25 9,674 9,682 9,354 9,372 9,742 9,538 -204 32,307 21,181
Mar-25 9,450 9,450 9,146 9,156 9,526 9,298 -228 13,142 15,239
Apr-25 9,212 9,212 8,930 8,938 9,296 9,082 -214 1,238 1,215
May-25 8,950 8,980 8,720 8,736 9,084 8,860 -224 1,277,848 447,766
Jun-25 8,768 8,768 8,538 8,544 8,902 8,664 -238 274 595
Jul-25 8,608 8,608 8,394 8,402 8,704 8,504 -200 255 562
Aug-25 8,464 8,466 8,286 8,286 8,570 8,408 -162 80 163
Sep-25 8,332 8,354 8,182 8,200 8,422 8,272 -150 42,464 47,486
Oct-25 8,224 8,244 8,094 8,094 8,310 8,168 -142 63 436
Nov-25 8,158 8,160 8,064 8,064 8,232 8,118 -114 79 187
Dec-25 8,150 8,150 8,018 8,034 8,186 8,068 -118 14 41
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 803,602 lots, or 6.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 7,612 7,662 7,484 7,516 7,810 7,578 -232 84,322 90,390
Mar-25 7,658 7,660 7,502 7,526 7,786 7,584 -202 6,937 22,050
May-25 7,558 7,584 7,414 7,438 7,706 7,496 -210 681,077 682,211
Jul-25 7,486 7,494 7,336 7,362 7,592 7,406 -186 1,867 6,919
Aug-25 7,534 7,534 7,368 7,402 7,648 7,440 -208 98 567
Sep-25 7,510 7,516 7,346 7,384 7,614 7,420 -194 28,972 105,678
Nov-25 7,550 7,550 7,382 7,410 7,576 7,474 -102 214 936
Dec-25 7,606 7,614 7,500 7,530 7,684 7,548 -136 115 156
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322