Softs Report 12/13/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday in follow through selling and the trends are still turning down. There was not much in the way of news or action in outside markets to spur Cotton in one direction or the other. Selling has come from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 68.40, 67.90, and 66.40 March, with resistance of 71.00, 71.90 and 72.40 March.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher yesterday and the chart trends are still mixed as futures are mired in a short term trading range. USDA estimated all Oranges production at 2.48 million tons for the US and 12 million boxes. The estimates are down a lot from early forecasts and from the previous year. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil or Florida right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 470.00 January, with resistance at 506.00, 516.00, and 533.00 January

COFFEE
General Comments: New York was lower and London closed higher yesterday. It appears that New York made a reversal on Tuesday. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. The chart trends are still up in both markets. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 303.97 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 335.00, 346.00 and 352.00 March. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5060, 4910, and 4770 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5550 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday despite supportive production data from Brazil. UNICA said that the second half of November crush was down 15% from the previous year at 20.4 million tons. Sugar production was 1.1 million tons, down 23%, and ethanol production was 1.2 billion liters, down 5%. Both markets are starting new moves lower. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts in New York and mixed to down on both sets of charts in London. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2080, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2200, 2240, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 529.00, 524.00, and 513.00 March, with resistance at 545.00, 551.00, and 564.00 March.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on weather and production related buying. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 10250, 10000, and 9790 March, with resistance at 10940, 11060, and 11180 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 8160, 7890, and 7640 March, with resistance at 8760, 8880, and 9000 March.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322