Grains Report 12/10/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Tuesday.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA Nov.
Corn 1,887 1,800-1,938 1,938
Soybeans 471 430-531 470
Wheat 816 787-835 815
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 314.1 313.5-314.3 314.2
Soybeans 112.3 112.0-112.5 112.4
Wheat 266.3 266.0-267.4 266.3
2024-25
Average Range USDA Nov
Corn 303.4 300.0-305.3 304.1
Soybeans 132.9 132.0-135.0 131.7
Wheat 257.6 255.5-259.9 257.6

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Dec 9
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Mon Dec 09, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING DEC 05, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 12/05/2024 11/28/2024 12/07/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 1,298 821 0 7,210 1,614
CORN 1,049,690 948,812 725,330 12,132,898 9,193,427
FLAXSEED 0 24 0 240 0
MIXED 0 0 0 49 24
OATS 0 0 0 148 3,794
RYE 0 0 72 0 72
SORGHUM 73,790 196,364 340,384 1,159,458 1,426,031
SOYBEANS 1,622,197 2,109,665 999,790 23,437,833 19,756,890
SUNFLOWER 0 0 576 0 3,965
WHEAT 226,513 298,550 293,756 11,217,114 8,629,970
Total 2,973,488 3,554,236 2,359,908 47,954,950 39,015,787
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little higher yesterday in all three markets in response to news that the Surian president had been deposed. Ideas are that Russian shipments could be affected as Russia had bases in Syria and the loss is considered a blow to Russian influence. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia and Argentina were negative for prices. Wheat farmers in the US can plant the Winter crops under good conditions. Australia has seen too much rain recently that has downgraded about 4.0 million tons of production to feed instead of food. Australia still has a very big crop to sell into world markets.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 553, 550, and 543 March, with resistance at 565, 571, and 577 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 551, 544, and 535 March, with resistance at 566, 577, and 591 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 593, 586, and 585 March, and resistance is at 608, 613, and 629 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed q little higher yesterday on short covering before the release of the USDA WASDE reports later today. The trends are still mixed on the charts. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied above 15.00/cwt.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The weekly export sales report showed strong sales. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Trading volumes are down and it feels like the holiday market is already here. Oats were lower. Canada is also looking at 25% tariffs imposed on exports to the US. The majority of the Oats consumed in the US comes from Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 434, 428, and 426 March, and resistance is at 442, 445, and 448 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 348, 339, and 332 March, and resistance is at 370, 374, and 376 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday as ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans continue. Soybean Oil could be stronger today as the WASDE data is expected to show a sharp increase in demand. Soybean Meal was higher on spreading against Soybean Oil. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans are often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 284.00, 281.00, and 278.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4220, 4100, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4450, 4640, and 4770 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on reports of weaker exports. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was higher and the charts show that a low has been completed. The harvest is over in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much, especially with the cold weather in place now.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up. Support is at 596.00, 585.00, and 577.00 January, with resistance at 624.00, 633.00, and 643.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up Support is at 4990, 4930, and 4800 February, with resistance at 5200, 5260, and 5320 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1245.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1195.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1090.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1025.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1250.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1200.00 -37.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1095.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1240.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1030.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,320.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 510.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4255)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
12-10-24 0529ET
Copyright (c) 2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,522 lots, or 4.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,856 3,878 3,848 3,858 3,862 3,861 -1 73,042 130,621
Mar-25 3,859 3,883 3,853 3,868 3,857 3,870 13 9,077 32,911
May-25 3,875 3,892 3,868 3,880 3,873 3,880 7 36,733 88,674
Jul-25 3,907 3,920 3,897 3,907 3,901 3,908 7 1,012 8,763
Sep-25 3,932 3,949 3,925 3,934 3,929 3,935 6 1,620 14,510
Nov-25 3,957 3,963 3,945 3,945 3,948 3,953 5 38 136
Corn
Turnover: 1,202,632 lots, or 25.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,091 2,125 2,091 2,113 2,091 2,108 17 635,366 598,655
Mar-25 2,130 2,154 2,121 2,142 2,121 2,137 16 171,562 484,017
May-25 2,190 2,222 2,189 2,215 2,189 2,207 18 311,255 609,610
Jul-25 2,220 2,253 2,220 2,245 2,220 2,239 19 56,553 149,261
Sep-25 2,226 2,263 2,223 2,254 2,229 2,247 18 17,200 45,133
Nov-25 2,216 2,244 2,216 2,230 2,213 2,228 15 10,696 13,381
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,627,231 lots, or 44.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 2,802 2,802 2,802 0 0 406
Jan-25 2,860 2,864 2,841 2,857 2,829 2,853 24 185,880 568,476
Mar-25 2,814 2,833 2,794 2,809 2,790 2,813 23 49,266 324,692
May-25 2,682 2,699 2,662 2,673 2,665 2,681 16 1,205,796 2,440,356
Jul-25 2,691 2,704 2,671 2,681 2,672 2,686 14 17,595 222,396
Aug-25 2,820 2,834 2,795 2,805 2,800 2,815 15 10,490 137,271
Sep-25 2,825 2,840 2,799 2,809 2,805 2,819 14 132,310 600,353
Nov-25 2,847 2,859 2,820 2,832 2,825 2,838 13 25,894 148,336
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,962,051 lots, or 19.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open Settle Interest
Dec-24 10,500 10,500 10,200 10,200 10,318 10,268 -50 14 990
Jan-25 10,240 10,326 9,944 9,998 10,228 10,180 -48 1,109,399 315,897
Feb-25 10,198 10,258 9,886 9,930 10,198 10,106 -92 32,342 27,201
Mar-25 10,038 10,102 9,738 9,780 10,034 9,936 -98 12,348 13,032
Apr-25 9,824 9,866 9,508 9,546 9,816 9,696 -120 1,715 1,103
May-25 9,600 9,630 9,258 9,292 9,598 9,460 -138 765,098 398,873
Jun-25 9,354 9,364 9,038 9,066 9,364 9,214 -150 235 562
Jul-25 9,108 9,122 8,838 8,868 9,120 8,986 -134 227 415
Aug-25 8,898 8,924 8,664 8,676 8,902 8,828 -74 96 116
Sep-25 8,690 8,746 8,496 8,530 8,716 8,634 -82 40,362 41,612
Oct-25 8,492 8,552 8,350 8,374 8,532 8,446 -86 131 370
Nov-25 8,358 8,402 8,218 8,266 8,406 8,316 -90 84 136
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 800,113 lots, or 63.44 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 7,950 7,950 7,950 0 0 2,082
Jan-25 7,980 8,092 7,966 7,986 7,990 8,020 30 141,732 229,050
Mar-25 7,948 8,058 7,934 7,954 7,948 7,992 44 7,839 21,020
May-25 7,856 7,994 7,852 7,872 7,870 7,912 42 618,411 593,406
Jul-25 7,770 7,874 7,742 7,766 7,760 7,798 38 1,490 4,511
Aug-25 7,826 7,910 7,782 7,790 7,810 7,848 38 92 559
Sep-25 7,792 7,894 7,760 7,778 7,786 7,820 34 30,506 84,246
Nov-25 7,790 7,852 7,750 7,762 7,748 7,808 60 43 138
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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