Softs Report 12/09/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week after a weaker weekly export sales report and the trends are turning down. There was not much in the way of news or action in outside markets to spur Cotton in one direction or the other. Selling came from news that Trump will impose some big tariffs on China, but the tariffs posted were not as high as he had threatened before during the campaign. China has big problems with its domestic economy with consumer buying interest not strong and many people not working. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved but still rather low US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 69.70, 69.40, and 68.40 March, with resistance of 72.70, 73.50 and 74.70 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 264,946
: Positions :
: 31,672 65,905 64,210 72,887 102,156 81,919 19,263 250,687 251,534: 14,259 13,412
: Changes from: November 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 603) :
: 673 -1,504 -1,333 -3,715 3,798 4,558 -90 183 871: 420 -268
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.0 24.9 24.2 27.5 38.6 30.9 7.3 94.6 94.9: 5.4 5.1
: Total Traders: 295 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 103 92 62 58 45 25 232 222:
——————————————————————————————————————-

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed a little higher last week and the chart trends are mixed. The short term supply scenario remains very tight. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease and some extreme weather seen in the last couple of years. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down. Support is at 484.00, 480.00, and 470.00 January, with resistance at 504.00, 516.00, and 533.00 January

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of December 3, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,766 :
: Positions :
: 1,941 9,865 591 131 248 4,738 0 3 1,172 290 3,240 :
: Changes from: November 26, 2024 :
: 28 186 -4 0 51 84 0 -2 102 8 93 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 66.8 4.0 0.9 1.7 32.1 0.0 0.0 7.9 2.0 21.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 11 10 . . . 20 0 . 13 4 10 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher again on Friday on what appeared to be speculative buying. Commercials also bought and were leaving short hedges. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil on weather induced short crops continue and there are also reports of too much rain in parts of Central America damaging crops there. There are reports from Brazil that producers have already sold a lot of Coffee and are holding back on selling more even with good demand. Offers from Vietnam are increasing now as the harvest has been expanding. The chart trends are still up in both markets. There are reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 309.43 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 314.00, 301.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 335.00, 340.00 and 346.00 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 4910, 4770, and 4540 January, with resistance at 5350, 5400, and 5460 January.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 256,527
: Positions :
: 50,398 11,353 78,127 57,547 149,613 61,104 11,050 247,174 250,143: 9,352 6,384
: Changes from: November 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,490) :
: -1,071 -390 4,210 -3,873 -7,155 -2,425 91 -3,159 -3,243: -332 -247
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 4.4 30.5 22.4 58.3 23.8 4.3 96.4 97.5: 3.6 2.5
: Total Traders: 377 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 126 65 99 82 118 50 23 301 270:
——————————————————————————————————————-

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week. Both markets remain in ranges with a slight downside bias. The current Brazil rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are mixed in both markets on the daily charts and mixed on the weekly charts. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months due to adverse growing conditions seen in Brazil during the production period. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas. Brazil exported 3.39 million tons of Sugar in November, from 3.64 million last year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2080, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2200, 2240, and 2250 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 540.00, 536.00, and 529.00 March, with resistance at 568.00, 581.00, and 592.00 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,041,607
: Positions :
: 110,737 131,195 229,963 370,132 588,780 254,784 36,075 965,616 986,013: 75,990 55,594
: Changes from: November 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: 14,007) :
: -98 -7,497 6,149 3,075 11,114 3,223 -287 12,349 9,480: 1,658 4,527
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.6 12.6 22.1 35.5 56.5 24.5 3.5 92.7 94.7: 7.3 5.3
: Total Traders: 234 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 66 44 81 69 67 43 20 214 180:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed higher on some weather induced buying. There is talk that production will be short of demand for the fourth year in a row. Chart trends are up in both markets on the daily charts. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 9400, 8870, and 8750 March, with resistance at 10100, 10160, and 10220 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 7590, 7300, and 6920 March, with resistance at 8100, 8160, and 8220 March.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of December 03, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 181,889
: Positions :
: 34,909 15,397 51,751 59,395 100,074 23,843 9,055 169,899 176,277: 11,990 5,612
: Changes from: November 26, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,880) :
: -1,469 -209 -676 34 -2,317 -1,155 -832 -3,266 -4,035: -614 154
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.2 8.5 28.5 32.7 55.0 13.1 5.0 93.4 96.9: 6.6 3.1
: Total Traders: 176 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 62 38 56 36 39 31 13 152 124:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322