Grains Report 12/04/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Dec 4
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL December Dec 05, 2024 5 Nov 27, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL December Dec 05, 2024 228 Nov 22, 2024
CORN December Dec 05, 2024 111 Oct 23, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little higher yesterday on stable world markets. Egypt is moving its Wheat buying to a new agency that will close deals privately and make it harder to track Russian prices. It is something the Russian government wanted. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. There was no news about the conflict seen in recent days to move markets, but Russia today announced an export quota for Wheat of 11 million tons, down from 29 million in 2024. It also increased export taxes yesterday. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. The growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia and Argentina were negative for prices. Wheat farmers in the US can plant the Winter crops under good conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 539, 536, and 530 March, with resistance at 553, 563, and 571 March. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 535, 529, and 523 March, with resistance at 551, 566, and 577 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 585, 578, and 572 March, and resistance is at 602, 608, and 613 March.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher after trading lower early in the day. The trends are still mixed on the charts, but are trying to turn up. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied above 15.00/cwt.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1544, and 1558 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump has promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA in the last week. Trading volumes are down and it feels like the holiday market is already here. Oats were higher as Canada is also looking at 25% tariffs imposed on exports to the US. The majority of the Oats consumed in the US comes from Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 426, 423, and 418 March, and resistance is at 437, 442, and 445 March. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 361, 354, and 351 March, and resistance is at 374, 379, and 384 March.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday as ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans continue. Trump has proposed to bring tariffs to China that could raise the price of used cooking oil to levels unprofitable for US makers of bio fuels. A major competitor to Soy Oil for bio fuels would be removed. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 175 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest this year has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. The harvest should be wrapped up this week. Soybeans are often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 30,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 287.00, 284.00, and 281.00 January, and resistance is at 294.00, 299.00, and 304.00 January. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4060, 3960, and 3780 January, with resistance at 4300, 4450, and 4640 January.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday in response to ideas of weaker production and on stronger Soybean Oil prices in Chicago. Demand from China has not been good, but demand from India has been seasonally strong. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was higher on a strong US Dollar. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 580.00, 568.00, and 554.00 January, with resistance at 601.00, 609.00, and 625.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up Support is at 5040, 4930, and 4800 February, with resistance at 5200, 5260, and 5320 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Dec 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1255.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1200.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1025.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1260.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1205.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1097.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1030.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1235.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1025.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,350.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 517.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.455)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Dec 04
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 164,999 lots, or 6.38 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,898 3,898 3,824 3,829 3,885 3,857 -28 103,660 163,090
Mar-25 3,890 3,896 3,824 3,833 3,886 3,851 -35 8,385 30,160
May-25 3,909 3,916 3,857 3,858 3,908 3,882 -26 49,748 80,540
Jul-25 3,938 3,946 3,888 3,890 3,942 3,911 -31 1,368 8,797
Sep-25 3,972 3,978 3,918 3,918 3,970 3,945 -25 1,814 14,557
Nov-25 3,993 3,993 3,938 3,938 3,987 3,958 -29 24 115
Corn
Turnover: 1,038,106 lots, or 2.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,127 2,128 2,082 2,084 2,123 2,099 -24 652,976 861,967
Mar-25 2,159 2,159 2,112 2,113 2,150 2,127 -23 125,976 423,698
May-25 2,210 2,215 2,175 2,176 2,210 2,190 -20 196,956 471,335
Jul-25 2,242 2,243 2,206 2,206 2,239 2,221 -18 42,942 133,798
Sep-25 2,261 2,261 2,221 2,224 2,259 2,239 -20 15,965 34,484
Nov-25 2,250 2,251 2,212 2,212 2,248 2,226 -22 3,291 10,738
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,957,397 lots, or 53.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,792 2,799 2,792 2,799 2,875 2,794 -81 83 1,709
Jan-25 2,866 2,874 2,801 2,819 2,861 2,830 -31 233,231 754,473
Mar-25 2,855 2,857 2,788 2,801 2,850 2,816 -34 30,748 310,884
May-25 2,761 2,766 2,694 2,706 2,760 2,726 -34 1,453,540 2,494,350
Jul-25 2,766 2,767 2,699 2,710 2,761 2,730 -31 33,264 212,253
Aug-25 2,876 2,877 2,810 2,820 2,869 2,839 -30 9,754 132,035
Sep-25 2,880 2,882 2,814 2,824 2,874 2,842 -32 181,930 541,672
Nov-25 2,894 2,895 2,827 2,837 2,890 2,858 -32 14,847 121,793
Palm Oil
Turnover: 2,195,813 lots, or 22.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 10,300 10,300 10,300 10,300 10,274 10,300 26 206 990
Jan-25 10,458 10,518 10,272 10,328 10,254 10,390 136 1,533,316 444,836
Feb-25 10,290 10,348 10,134 10,212 10,100 10,258 158 34,438 22,796
Mar-25 10,034 10,096 9,924 9,984 9,852 10,028 176 11,056 10,176
Apr-25 9,772 9,848 9,516 9,748 9,602 9,784 182 1,263 1,093
May-25 9,456 9,578 9,410 9,454 9,286 9,498 212 582,950 334,391
Jun-25 9,212 9,310 9,182 9,188 9,032 9,234 202 163 441
Jul-25 9,010 9,098 8,978 9,006 8,842 9,030 188 329 375
Aug-25 8,820 8,902 8,770 8,834 8,712 8,818 106 92 89
Sep-25 8,636 8,724 8,604 8,624 8,510 8,664 154 31,853 36,811
Oct-25 8,510 8,550 8,450 8,450 8,390 8,516 126 79 305
Nov-25 8,386 8,418 8,300 8,318 8,304 8,366 62 68 104
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 761,550 lots, or 60.73 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 – – – 8,020 8,246 8,020 -226 0 2,722
Jan-25 8,082 8,124 8,030 8,038 8,058 8,082 24 209,496 303,241
Mar-25 8,036 8,090 7,988 8,002 8,006 8,040 34 4,467 18,710
May-25 7,934 7,992 7,888 7,900 7,886 7,938 52 507,697 553,367
Jul-25 7,794 7,872 7,768 7,774 7,746 7,816 70 1,012 3,127
Aug-25 7,794 7,912 7,790 7,818 7,766 7,862 96 165 566
Sep-25 7,764 7,894 7,752 7,802 7,732 7,832 100 38,634 60,940
Nov-25 7,758 7,848 7,758 7,776 7,712 7,806 94 79 119
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322