Grains Report 11/27/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher yesterday on steady quotes for export Wheat from Russia. Tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia. There was no news about the conflict seen in recent days to move markets. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. Russia also updated its nuclear use doctrine to include threats against it from the deployment of US missiles against Russian interests and shot seven ICBM missiles into Ukraine late last week. There were reports of stable price last week in Russia and the growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 526, 521, and 515 December, with resistance at 548, 559, and 565 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 542, 532, and 527 December, with resistance at 569, 580, and 583 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 574, 565, and 563 December, and resistance is at 597, 603, and 613 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday in recovery trading, and the trends are still mixed on the charts. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied above 15.00/cwt.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1486, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1522, 1538, and 1544 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower yesterday and is falling away from resistance above 430 December as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. Mr. Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico that could total 25% and this news led in part to the decline. Mexico is the largest buyer of US Corn n the world. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong and it seems like some of the buying is in anticipation of the new presidential regime starting here in January. President Trump ha promised new tariffs on goods and services and some buyers may be making purchases now to avoid the potential for the tariff at a later date. There were no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA last week. Oats were higher as Canada is also looking at 25% tariffs imposed on exports to the US. The majority of the Oats consumed in the US comes from Canada..
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 415, 409, and 407 December, and resistance is at 427, 433, and 435 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 325, and 314 December, and resistance is at 358, 372, and 384 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher yesterday on short covering and despite ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans and Trump plans to curb the use of bio fuels order to promote more use of petroleum. Trump has proposed to bring tariffs to China that could raise the price of used cooking oil to levels unprofitable for US makers of bio fuels. A major competitor to Soy Oil for bio fuels would be removed. The tariffs that Trump plans to impose could be another detriment to sales of all products. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 170 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. The harvest should be wrapped up this week. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down. Support is at 3950, 3870, and 3770 December, with resistance at 4360, 4450, and 4600 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today in response to ideas of weaker production and on stronger Soybean Oil prices in Chicago. Demand from China has not been good. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was lower. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 568.00, 554.00, and 548.00 January, with resistance at 601.00, 609.00, and 625.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4630, 4530, and 4430 February, with resistance at 4800, 4880, and 5060 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry north, scattered showers south. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1180.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1150.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1072.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1030.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1185.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1155.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1077.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1035.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1175.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 970.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,000.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 497.00 +07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.435)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 120,574 lots, or 4.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,905 3,925 3,885 3,906 3,895 3,899 4 95,421 162,752
Mar-25 3,899 3,916 3,888 3,909 3,895 3,900 5 4,781 30,206
May-25 3,930 3,947 3,922 3,930 3,929 3,930 1 18,429 74,110
Jul-25 3,963 3,975 3,951 3,958 3,960 3,960 0 1,019 8,405
Sep-25 3,990 4,001 3,981 3,988 3,991 3,989 -2 923 13,878
Nov-25 4,009 4,009 4,009 4,009 4,008 4,009 1 1 85
Corn
Turnover: 950,326 lots, or 20.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,193 2,197 2,172 2,187 2,193 2,183 -10 671,490 831,261
Mar-25 2,220 2,226 2,206 2,217 2,220 2,214 -6 130,330 396,431
May-25 2,271 2,271 2,252 2,262 2,267 2,259 -8 119,792 336,531
Jul-25 2,295 2,295 2,278 2,286 2,293 2,285 -8 22,387 110,872
Sep-25 2,316 2,320 2,303 2,310 2,319 2,310 -9 4,521 24,903
Nov-25 2,308 2,312 2,301 2,307 2,308 2,306 -2 1,806 5,948
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,384,384 lots, or 39.36 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,913 2,945 2,883 2,891 2,897 2,911 14 5,622 6,245
Jan-25 2,940 2,952 2,900 2,912 2,917 2,918 1 311,147 848,827
Mar-25 2,930 2,942 2,892 2,907 2,916 2,913 -3 64,272 305,369
May-25 2,813 2,824 2,793 2,804 2,801 2,806 5 904,606 2,114,896
Jul-25 2,809 2,821 2,791 2,801 2,802 2,804 2 22,831 200,236
Aug-25 2,919 2,925 2,899 2,909 2,911 2,910 -1 6,265 128,508
Sep-25 2,924 2,930 2,903 2,914 2,916 2,914 -2 61,479 470,628
Nov-25 2,937 2,946 2,919 2,934 2,931 2,932 1 8,162 117,668
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,293,363 lots, or 12.43 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 9,834 9,940 9,798 9,940 9,834 9,842 8 1,090 1,994
Jan-25 9,776 9,880 9,676 9,874 9,712 9,756 44 998,648 441,392
Feb-25 9,598 9,734 9,524 9,722 9,524 9,616 92 10,407 17,386
Mar-25 9,428 9,566 9,378 9,554 9,360 9,444 84 2,927 3,775
Apr-25 9,246 9,376 9,208 9,368 9,170 9,262 92 486 396
May-25 9,050 9,214 9,024 9,202 8,994 9,100 106 271,617 288,132
Jun-25 8,838 9,018 8,836 9,014 8,800 8,932 132 64 465
Jul-25 8,672 8,830 8,654 8,830 8,626 8,740 114 95 360
Aug-25 8,488 8,660 8,480 8,660 8,454 8,518 64 20 75
Sep-25 8,358 8,510 8,322 8,498 8,306 8,416 110 7,930 26,119
Oct-25 8,248 8,356 8,224 8,356 8,176 8,298 122 8 302
Nov-25 8,156 8,310 8,126 8,306 8,120 8,230 110 71 91
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 512,430 lots, or 40.96 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,034 8,102 8,020 8,102 8,036 8,042 6 303 8,135
Jan-25 8,062 8,124 8,032 8,110 8,058 8,070 12 303,744 389,430
Mar-25 8,010 8,086 7,988 8,076 7,996 8,028 32 3,729 18,203
May-25 7,870 7,960 7,840 7,952 7,854 7,886 32 192,655 479,559
Jul-25 7,702 7,804 7,696 7,790 7,696 7,740 44 112 1,992
Aug-25 7,704 7,800 7,694 7,788 7,688 7,746 58 82 376
Sep-25 7,660 7,764 7,654 7,750 7,650 7,700 50 11,762 49,829
Nov-25 7,650 7,722 7,640 7,722 7,638 7,680 42 43 90
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322