Grains Report 11/22/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher early yesterday as tensions remined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia once again. The markets could not hold the gains and closed lower. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. Russia also updated its nuclear use doctrine to include threats against it from the deployment of US missiles against Russian interests and shot seven ICBM missiles into Ukraine yesterday. There were reports of stable price yesterday in Russia and the growing conditions in the US are very good. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 541, 526, and 521 December, with resistance at 559, 565, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 544, 532, and 527 December, with resistance at 569, 580, and 583 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 575, 565, and 563 December, and resistance is at 597, 603, and 613 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday and the trends are still up on the charts. However, current prices seem to be in a good spot right now with supply and demand seen about even at this time. The US Dollar was a little lower. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1498, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1543, and 1556 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower yesterday after trading a little higher early in the day. Futures seem to have found a comfort level around the 430 December area as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong, but the US Dollar has also turned strong and has hurt demand ideas. There have been no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA so far this week. Oats were mixed to higher. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress but it has turned wet in the last couple of weeks. The harvest will be complete once the rains move out. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 422, 425, and 409 December, and resistance is at 433, 435, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 325, and 314 December, and resistance is at 354, 372, and 384 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday on ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans and Trump plans to curb the use of bio fuels order to promote more use of petroleum. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago and some estimates range as high as 170 million tons for the country. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. It is currently raining in the Midwest so the last of the harvest will be delayed by at least a few days. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 198,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 974, 968, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1000, 1014, and 1020 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4150, 4070, and 3950 December, with resistance at 43s60, 4450, and 46s30 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in response to weaker demand ideas. Demand from China has not been good. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 578.00, 582.00, and 554.00 January, with resistance at 609.00, 625.00, and 633.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4630, 4530, and 4430 February, with resistance at 4800, 4880, and 5060 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 22
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1145.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1115.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 995.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1150.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1120.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1040.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 -27.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1140.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 935.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 4,950.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 490.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.465)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 22
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 85,724 lots, or 3.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,881 3,888 3,870 3,878 3,887 3,879 -8 68,398 189,457
Mar-25 3,896 3,896 3,878 3,886 3,897 3,888 -9 2,502 31,066
May-25 3,940 3,940 3,918 3,928 3,937 3,929 -8 13,041 67,207
Jul-25 3,963 3,967 3,948 3,956 3,967 3,957 -10 619 8,357
Sep-25 3,994 3,998 3,978 3,987 3,998 3,988 -10 1,130 13,036
Nov-25 4,015 4,016 3,998 4,004 4,026 4,009 -17 34 89
Corn
Turnover: 672,083 lots, or 14.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,207 2,215 2,188 2,190 2,196 2,201 5 507,671 863,690
Mar-25 2,225 2,234 2,213 2,216 2,219 2,222 3 65,948 364,485
May-25 2,277 2,283 2,263 2,264 2,270 2,273 3 70,049 288,415
Jul-25 2,304 2,308 2,289 2,291 2,297 2,297 0 22,701 108,445
Sep-25 2,326 2,331 2,314 2,315 2,321 2,321 0 3,516 22,468
Nov-25 2,308 2,318 2,301 2,307 2,305 2,308 3 2,198 4,804
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,012,774 lots, or 56.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,927 2,927 2,872 2,872 2,923 2,893 -30 2,966 8,535
Jan-25 2,925 2,930 2,873 2,874 2,924 2,894 -30 445,503 1,087,252
Mar-25 2,891 2,903 2,848 2,849 2,904 2,873 -31 69,125 301,002
May-25 2,818 2,819 2,766 2,767 2,820 2,791 -29 1,269,653 2,091,800
Jul-25 2,815 2,816 2,766 2,767 2,817 2,789 -28 32,306 199,127
Aug-25 2,929 2,929 2,879 2,879 2,930 2,903 -27 9,566 126,674
Sep-25 2,936 2,936 2,883 2,884 2,935 2,908 -27 153,037 450,368
Nov-25 2,948 2,951 2,897 2,901 2,949 2,924 -25 30,618 96,803
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,394,047 lots, or 13.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 9,714 9,764 9,620 9,692 9,794 9,692 -102 278 2,078
Jan-25 9,652 9,668 9,518 9,570 9,696 9,600 -96 1,106,401 425,227
Feb-25 9,408 9,452 9,288 9,330 9,492 9,368 -124 10,929 16,018
Mar-25 9,214 9,272 9,102 9,144 9,272 9,192 -80 1,895 3,350
Apr-25 9,052 9,106 8,940 8,988 9,104 9,030 -74 503 439
May-25 8,964 8,970 8,772 8,806 8,964 8,864 -100 264,402 233,191
Jun-25 8,784 8,784 8,602 8,646 8,794 8,684 -110 161 472
Jul-25 8,598 8,606 8,420 8,468 8,562 8,504 -58 94 375
Aug-25 8,402 8,420 8,256 8,324 8,384 8,348 -36 27 83
Sep-25 8,254 8,296 8,102 8,118 8,238 8,180 -58 9,290 23,501
Oct-25 8,154 8,158 8,016 8,044 8,142 8,104 -38 33 309
Nov-25 8,106 8,106 7,950 7,982 8,092 8,018 -74 34 121
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 722,289 lots, or 57.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,164 8,164 7,990 8,024 8,158 8,076 -82 1,050 8,310
Jan-25 8,188 8,190 7,988 8,018 8,142 8,060 -82 482,244 423,259
Mar-25 8,038 8,054 7,888 7,918 8,010 7,956 -54 5,680 16,142
May-25 7,880 7,902 7,734 7,774 7,842 7,806 -36 212,331 461,158
Jul-25 7,708 7,736 7,588 7,618 7,678 7,648 -30 265 1,951
Aug-25 7,714 7,730 7,586 7,608 7,666 7,630 -36 201 350
Sep-25 7,646 7,670 7,540 7,580 7,608 7,590 -18 20,463 48,523
Nov-25 7,628 7,638 7,546 7,576 7,598 7,582 -16 55 128
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322