Grains Report 11/21/2024

DJ Global Grain Output Estimates Tweaked Lower But Record High Still Expected
By Joe Hoppe
Global grain production is still expected at a record high for the harvest ending next year, though estimates have been lowered, the International Grains Council said Thursday.
The IGC forecasts global grain output at 2.311 billion metric tons in 2024-25, down by 4 million tons from October’s estimate. This would still reflect a record high, rising from 2023-24’s estimated harvest of 2.308 billion tons.
The new high mainly reflects larger sorghum, oats and barley harvests, the IGC said. Consumption is also expected to set records, with new highs for food, feed and industrial uses. The combination of a small reduction in estimated supply and higher consumption will lead to smaller carryover stocks, now forecast 3% lower on year at 576 million tons.
For corn, the IGC expects output of 1.225 billion tons in 2024-25, up 1 million tons on last month’s estimate, the grains body said.
Wheat output is expected at 796 million tons, down 2 million tons from October, while rice is expected at 535 million tons, a 4 million ton boost from an upgraded outlook for Indian producers. Soybean output expectations have been cut by 2 million tons to 419 million tons on a reduced U.S. crop estimate, though this remains 5.8% higher on year.
The forecast uses the latest acreage estimates and yield prospects.

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Nov 21

For the week ended Nov 14, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 549.6 0.0 14801.3 12064.7 4829.3 27.0
hrw 73.0 0.0 3432.8 2243.8 1059.0 0.0
srw 37.2 0.0 2330.6 2746.0 741.0 27.0
hrs 135.5 0.0 4788.8 4207.4 1565.7 0.0
white 269.8 0.0 3972.2 2558.2 1333.5 0.0
durum 34.1 0.0 276.9 309.4 130.0 0.0
corn 1494.6 0.0 31396.0 22530.7 22068.5 758.7
soybeans 1860.6 0.0 31584.3 28986.9 14189.7 1.0
soymeal 274.9 0.7 6509.4 6140.1 4782.8 2.8
soyoil 21.9 0.0 272.1 29.0 238.3 0.0
upland cotton 318.5 16.0 6364.2 7584.0 4506.6 428.3
pima cotton 8.9 0.0 214.3 165.4 104.4 0.0
sorghum 121.1 0.0 1025.4 3282.0 515.8 0.0
barley 0.9 0.0 26.0 16.1 18.8 3.0
rice 68.9 0.0 1482.2 1333.9 645.4 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher again yesterday as tensions r3emined high between Ukraine, the US, and Russia once again. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. Russia also updated its nuclear use doctrine to include threats against it from the deployment of US missiles against Russian interests. There were reports of increasing price yesterday price in Russia for the first time in a while and improved growing conditions in the US. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions. Russian export offers were under pressure all week. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and as demand has waned. Ideas are that Russian exporters are trying to maintain export volumes at the expense of price
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 526, 521, and 514 December, with resistance at 559, 565, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 544, 532, and 527 December, with resistance at 569, 580, and 583 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 575, 565, and 563 December, and resistance is at 585, 603, and 613 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday and the trends are still up on the charts. The US Dollar was a little lower. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1498, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1543, and 1556 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher again yesterday, and futures seem to have found a comfort level around the 430 December area as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong, but the US Dollar has also turned strong and has hurt demand ideas. Thee have been no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA so far this week. Oats were mixed to higher. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to feature off and on showers over the early and middle parts of the week. The harvest will be complete once the rains move out. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 422, 425, and 409 December, and resistance is at 433, 435, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 325, and 314 December, and resistance is at 354, 372, and 384 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday on ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans and Trump plans to curb the use of bio fuels order to promote more use of petroleum.. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. It is currently raining in the Midwest so the last of the harvest will be delayed by at least a few days. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: USDA said that 198,000 tons of US Soybeans were sold to China and 135,000 tons were sold to unknown destinations. Philippines bought 133,000 tons of US Soybean Meal.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 986, 977, and 974 January, and resistance is at 1014, 1020, and 1030 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4260, 4150, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4450, 4630, and 4770 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today in response to weaker demand ideas as demand from China has not been good. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 609.00, 605.00, and 601.00 January, with resistance at 633.00, 652.00, and 660.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4720, 4640, and 4530 February, with resistance at 4880, 5060, and 5140 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Rain ane snow. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 21
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1170.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1145.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1062.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1022.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1175.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1150.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1067.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1027.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1155.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 960.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,000.00 -60.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 495.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.46)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 21
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 88,773 lots, or 3.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,893 3,905 3,877 3,888 3,889 3,887 -2 73,233 188,039
Mar-25 3,901 3,914 3,889 3,896 3,897 3,897 0 3,129 31,124
May-25 3,930 3,951 3,930 3,940 3,935 3,937 2 10,793 67,290
Jul-25 3,969 3,979 3,962 3,970 3,963 3,967 4 647 8,370
Sep-25 3,997 4,009 3,991 4,000 3,994 3,998 4 965 12,984
Nov-25 4,030 4,030 4,025 4,027 4,018 4,026 8 6 66
Corn
Turnover: 563,428 lots, or 12.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,196 2,206 2,188 2,206 2,199 2,196 -3 414,515 885,746
Mar-25 2,223 2,226 2,211 2,226 2,224 2,219 -5 75,749 355,819
May-25 2,269 2,277 2,264 2,276 2,274 2,270 -4 51,843 282,716
Jul-25 2,292 2,303 2,292 2,302 2,301 2,297 -4 15,877 106,084
Sep-25 2,318 2,326 2,316 2,325 2,325 2,321 -4 2,314 21,912
Nov-25 2,304 2,311 2,299 2,308 2,304 2,305 1 3,130 4,356
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,295,395 lots, or 37.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,926 2,932 2,910 2,927 2,946 2,923 -23 2,138 10,266
Jan-25 2,930 2,935 2,912 2,929 2,940 2,924 -16 337,979 1,126,599
Mar-25 2,917 2,917 2,893 2,905 2,916 2,904 -12 39,819 306,533
May-25 2,821 2,830 2,807 2,822 2,824 2,820 -4 780,874 1,968,363
Jul-25 2,816 2,824 2,805 2,819 2,819 2,817 -2 21,856 195,804
Aug-25 2,927 2,937 2,920 2,933 2,930 2,930 0 6,272 125,687
Sep-25 2,928 2,944 2,925 2,938 2,932 2,935 3 80,785 437,017
Nov-25 2,939 2,958 2,939 2,952 2,943 2,949 6 25,672 78,097
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,958,749 lots, or 18.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 9,982 9,982 9,626 9,626 9,986 9,794 -192 1,058 2,169
Jan-25 9,878 9,886 9,532 9,556 9,948 9,696 -252 1,569,711 451,831
Feb-25 9,726 9,726 9,300 9,328 9,790 9,492 -298 14,798 15,847
Mar-25 9,488 9,488 9,132 9,160 9,572 9,272 -300 3,182 3,130
Apr-25 9,296 9,304 8,978 8,996 9,400 9,104 -296 762 469
May-25 9,140 9,144 8,830 8,854 9,240 8,964 -276 355,268 228,438
Jun-25 8,892 8,932 8,658 8,658 9,062 8,794 -268 173 493
Jul-25 8,694 8,708 8,486 8,486 8,824 8,562 -262 176 366
Aug-25 8,512 8,512 8,322 8,330 8,650 8,384 -266 58 81
Sep-25 8,358 8,362 8,170 8,190 8,466 8,238 -228 13,434 22,423
Oct-25 8,230 8,234 8,062 8,090 8,362 8,142 -220 68 290
Nov-25 8,170 8,170 8,010 8,030 8,258 8,092 -166 61 102
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 761,671 lots, or 61.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,198 8,198 8,074 8,128 8,208 8,158 -50 182 8,242
Jan-25 8,200 8,208 8,086 8,112 8,228 8,142 -86 515,412 446,176
Mar-25 8,044 8,064 7,960 7,994 8,096 8,010 -86 7,541 15,982
May-25 7,860 7,898 7,788 7,836 7,934 7,842 -92 218,635 459,542
Jul-25 7,698 7,722 7,626 7,664 7,774 7,678 -96 173 1,972
Aug-25 7,676 7,702 7,612 7,662 7,766 7,666 -100 87 339
Sep-25 7,640 7,654 7,552 7,608 7,702 7,608 -94 19,566 44,729
Nov-25 7,628 7,632 7,548 7,612 7,666 7,598 -68 75 90
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322