Grains Report 11/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher yesterday as tensions ramped up even more between Ukraine, the US, and Russia once again. The threat of war expanded with the US allowing longer range missiles to be used and as Russia is deploying North Korean soldiers alongside its own in battles. Russia also updated its nuclear use doctrine to include threats against it from the deployment of US missiles against Russian interests. There were reports of increasing price yesterday price in Russia for the first time in a while and improved growing conditions in the US. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions. Russian export offers were under pressure all week. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and as demand has waned. Ideas are that Russian exporters are trying to maintain export volumes at the expense of price
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 526, 521, and 514 December, with resistance at 559, 565, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 544, 532, and 527 December, with resistance at 564, 569, and 580 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 575, 565, and 563 December, and resistance is at 585, 603, and 613 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower yesterday and the trends are still up on the charts. The US Dollar was a little lower. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely at this time as futures have rallied.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are up. Support is at 1499, 1481, and 1457 January and resistance is at 1538, 1543, and 1556 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher yesterday, but futures seem to have found a comfort level around the 430 December area as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong, but the US Dollar has also turned strong and has hurt demand ideas. Thee have been no sales announcements in the daily reports from USDA so far this week. Oats were also higher. The Corn harvest is almost over and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to feature off and on showers over the early and middle parts of the week. The harvest will be complete once the rains move out. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 422, 425, and 409 December, and resistance is at 433, 435, and 445 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 336, 325, and 314 December, and resistance is at 354, 372, and 384 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday on ideas of big south American production potential of Soybeans. Brazil looks to produce much more than a year ago. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt US production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. It is currently raining in the Midwest so the last of the harvest will be delayed by at least a few days. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 202,000 tons of US Soybeans and 226,200 tons of Soybeans were received for shipment to unknown destinations.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 986, 977, and 974 January, and resistance is at 1014, 1020, and 1030 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 285.00, 282.00, and 279.00 December, and resistance is at 293.00, 297.00, and 303.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4440, 4350, and 4260 December, with resistance at 4640, 4770, and 4920 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today in response to higher Palm Oil prices reported from China. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been weaker so far this month. Canola was lower along with Soybean Oil. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 625.00, 617.00, and 609.00 January, with resistance at 665.00, 673.00, and 685.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4770, 4720, and 464a0 February, with resistance at 5060, 5140, and 5200 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1175.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1155.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1015.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1180.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1160.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1075.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 1157.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 950.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 5,060.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Dec 498.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.463)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 69,126 lots, or 2.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 3,889 3,901 3,883 3,892 3,894 3,889 -5 55,393 187,099
Mar-25 3,898 3,905 3,889 3,903 3,901 3,897 -4 2,942 31,119
May-25 3,941 3,948 3,928 3,940 3,940 3,935 -5 9,078 65,693
Jul-25 3,970 3,976 3,959 3,969 3,970 3,963 -7 806 8,317
Sep-25 4,000 4,005 3,988 3,997 4,001 3,994 -7 905 12,912
Nov-25 4,026 4,026 4,011 4,011 4,029 4,018 -11 2 62
Corn
Turnover: 554,244 lots, or 12.28 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Jan-25 2,208 2,212 2,191 2,195 2,206 2,199 -7 410,786 902,775
Mar-25 2,229 2,235 2,217 2,223 2,227 2,224 -3 54,822 348,814
May-25 2,282 2,286 2,267 2,269 2,278 2,274 -4 67,809 285,231
Jul-25 2,303 2,311 2,295 2,298 2,304 2,301 -3 14,053 106,015
Sep-25 2,329 2,332 2,319 2,322 2,326 2,325 -1 2,548 21,454
Nov-25 2,315 2,320 2,299 2,309 2,307 2,304 -3 4,226 4,021
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,268,825 lots, or 36.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 2,958 2,972 2,928 2,932 2,956 2,946 -10 8,838 11,916
Jan-25 2,964 2,971 2,927 2,937 2,962 2,940 -22 355,323 1,121,200
Mar-25 2,930 2,935 2,907 2,918 2,928 2,916 -12 49,227 307,083
May-25 2,839 2,840 2,813 2,827 2,829 2,824 -5 699,709 1,915,684
Jul-25 2,831 2,832 2,811 2,819 2,823 2,819 -4 20,785 192,703
Aug-25 2,945 2,945 2,924 2,928 2,938 2,930 -8 11,081 124,859
Sep-25 2,946 2,947 2,924 2,932 2,940 2,932 -8 93,772 419,888
Nov-25 2,956 2,959 2,936 2,940 2,952 2,943 -9 30,090 61,586
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,329,550 lots, or 13.07 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 9,960 10,044 9,928 10,012 9,928 9,986 58 793 2,632
Jan-25 9,928 10,002 9,864 9,954 9,876 9,948 72 1,100,966 477,573
Feb-25 9,774 9,856 9,726 9,784 9,720 9,790 70 10,678 14,344
Mar-25 9,578 9,660 9,514 9,558 9,492 9,572 80 1,793 3,008
Apr-25 9,398 9,490 9,348 9,382 9,314 9,400 86 435 440
May-25 9,236 9,336 9,178 9,210 9,172 9,240 68 210,627 225,563
Jun-25 9,108 9,136 8,984 8,990 9,032 9,062 30 96 458
Jul-25 8,896 8,898 8,780 8,808 8,738 8,824 86 75 362
Aug-25 8,698 8,698 8,618 8,618 8,570 8,650 80 6 80
Sep-25 8,480 8,554 8,402 8,426 8,426 8,466 40 4,029 20,085
Oct-25 8,384 8,426 8,300 8,318 8,280 8,362 82 19 271
Nov-25 8,336 8,338 8,210 8,230 8,224 8,258 34 33 75
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 598,865 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Dec-24 8,206 8,250 8,148 8,222 8,150 8,208 58 715 8,292
Jan-25 8,238 8,276 8,166 8,240 8,188 8,228 40 423,477 457,091
Mar-25 8,090 8,142 8,032 8,088 8,042 8,096 54 7,007 15,632
May-25 7,944 8,000 7,878 7,918 7,922 7,934 12 154,540 458,589
Jul-25 7,796 7,828 7,716 7,750 7,714 7,774 60 106 1,990
Aug-25 7,784 7,812 7,718 7,736 7,712 7,766 54 46 345
Sep-25 7,724 7,764 7,644 7,676 7,684 7,702 18 12,940 42,721
Nov-25 7,706 7,708 7,630 7,662 7,662 7,666 4 34 58
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322