Grains Report 11/14/2024

DJ Conab Updates Outlook for Brazilian Crops — Market Talk
0842 ET – Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab has released new estimates for the country’s crops– forecasting that the total harvest will be 322.5 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, which is up 8.2% from the previous cycle. The agency forecasts that soybean production will rise to 166.1 million tons from the 147.4 million tons reported for 2023/24, while corn rises to 119.8 million tons from 115.7 million tons in 2023/24. These figures are slightly higher from Conab’s previous 2024/25 estimates issued last month. Brazilian crops are being closely monitored by U.S. grain traders, who anticipate that a new trade war between the U.S. and China will allow Brazil to rapidly increase its market share in global grain exports. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 14
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November Nov 15, 2024 61 Oct 31, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower again yesterday in all three markets on reports of deteriorating price in Russia and improved growing conditions in the US. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops under good conditions. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and as demand has waned. Ideas are that Russian exporters are trying to maintain export volumes at the expense of price
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are down. Support is at 532, 526, and 521 December, with resistance at 558, 565, and 574 December. Trends in Kansas City are down. Support is at 527, 520, and 514 December, with resistance at 549, 562, and 569 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down. Support is at 563, 556, and 550 December, and resistance is at 580, 595, and 603 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed higher yesterday and trends are turning up on the charts. The US Dollar was higher, and this did not help demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year, but the harvest is over now and the crops are being stored. Increased producer selling interest is likely the farther the market moves above 1500 January.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1465, 1445, and 1434 January and resistance is at 1502, 1513, and 1528 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower again yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong. Oats were also lower. The harvest is winding down but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress and this week looks to be dry after some wet weather passes through today. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brazil and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down. Support is at 420, 414, and 409 December, and resistance is at 433, 435, and 440 September. Trends in Oats are down. Support is at 330, 323, and 314 December, and resistance is at 349, 357, and 370 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are almost done with Corn as well. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destzinations bought 176,000 tons mof US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 992, 986, and 977 January, and resistance is at 1020, 1030, and 1044 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are down. Support is at 288.00, 285.00, and 282.00 December, and resistance is at 297.00, 303.00, and 309.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4440, 4350, and 4260 December, with resistance at 4640, 4770, and 4920 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on what was called profit taking. Ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and reports of good demand provided support. The private surveyors have indicated that exports have been strong. Canola was lower along with other vegetable oils and oilseeds markets. The harvest is winding down in Canada and the crops are locked away in the bin. Producers will try to wait for higher prices before selling much.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 639.00, 635.00, and 625.00 January, with resistance at 665.00, 673.00, and 685.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4780, 4700, and 4590 January, with resistance at 5060, 5120, and 5180 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers and some rain. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1190.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1180.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1160.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1065.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1005.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1195.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1185.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1165.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1070.00 -22.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1010.00 -25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1160.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 955.00 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,100.00 -100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 506.00 -07.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.4895)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 93,623 lots, or 3.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 3,957 4,026 3,957 -69 0 0
Jan-25 3,965 3,969 3,946 3,950 3,977 3,958 -19 78,369 194,643
Mar-25 3,973 3,981 3,964 3,965 3,987 3,971 -16 2,925 29,048
May-25 4,016 4,020 4,005 4,005 4,023 4,011 -12 9,797 51,991
Jul-25 4,040 4,046 4,033 4,035 4,049 4,039 -10 901 7,389
Sep-25 4,066 4,073 4,060 4,061 4,074 4,065 -9 1,631 11,218
Corn
Turnover: 464,142 lots, or 10.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 2,187 2,168 2,187 19 0 0
Jan-25 2,198 2,205 2,194 2,195 2,197 2,199 2 355,867 933,219
Mar-25 2,220 2,229 2,218 2,220 2,218 2,223 5 35,797 342,566
May-25 2,266 2,275 2,265 2,271 2,267 2,270 3 47,005 251,565
Jul-25 2,290 2,302 2,290 2,298 2,295 2,296 1 23,000 100,885
Sep-25 2,318 2,325 2,317 2,320 2,318 2,320 2 2,473 19,441
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,593,220 lots, or 47.50 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,003 3,003 3,003 3,003 3,018 2,952 -66 11 0
Dec-24 3,058 3,058 3,022 3,025 3,065 3,040 -25 8,411 53,685
Jan-25 3,060 3,060 3,031 3,035 3,067 3,045 -22 679,765 1,228,382
Mar-25 3,026 3,026 2,994 3,001 3,034 3,012 -22 40,616 292,143
May-25 2,924 2,927 2,889 2,903 2,926 2,911 -15 693,509 1,724,190
Jul-25 2,922 2,922 2,884 2,895 2,920 2,905 -15 30,116 191,110
Aug-25 3,035 3,035 3,000 3,011 3,033 3,017 -16 15,906 117,413
Sep-25 3,033 3,038 3,003 3,012 3,034 3,020 -14 124,886 380,093
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,416,493 lots, or 13.82 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 10,532 10,532 10,532 10,532 9,844 9,834 -10 1 0
Dec-24 9,952 10,014 9,834 9,978 10,028 9,932 -96 6,497 4,282
Jan-25 9,906 9,962 9,776 9,914 9,958 9,880 -78 1,198,246 491,385
Feb-25 9,644 9,758 9,566 9,688 9,756 9,664 -92 10,344 11,795
Mar-25 9,442 9,548 9,338 9,468 9,586 9,456 -130 1,429 2,578
Apr-25 9,274 9,350 9,154 9,258 9,346 9,256 -90 276 391
May-25 9,170 9,174 8,944 9,082 9,198 9,066 -132 190,592 184,482
Jun-25 8,872 8,988 8,786 8,820 9,042 8,868 -174 68 408
Jul-25 8,748 8,788 8,572 8,660 8,826 8,666 -160 77 322
Aug-25 8,574 8,582 8,394 8,480 8,606 8,454 -152 40 116
Sep-25 8,382 8,420 8,202 8,280 8,392 8,296 -96 8,870 15,836
Oct-25 8,300 8,320 8,120 8,176 8,282 8,186 -96 53 299
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 765,460 lots, or 62.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 8,426 8,428 8,426 -2 0 0
Dec-24 8,334 8,338 8,244 8,310 8,456 8,300 -156 2,092 10,243
Jan-25 8,340 8,354 8,244 8,320 8,456 8,312 -144 550,973 522,405
Mar-25 8,220 8,244 8,114 8,200 8,334 8,194 -140 4,669 12,587
May-25 8,070 8,070 7,922 8,008 8,178 8,004 -174 189,907 441,165
Jul-25 7,872 7,886 7,766 7,818 8,016 7,830 -186 332 1,961
Aug-25 7,866 7,868 7,760 7,786 8,020 7,812 -208 112 302
Sep-25 7,814 7,840 7,690 7,732 7,922 7,748 -174 17,375 37,213
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322