Softs Report 11/13/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower again and closed at a new low for the move on the stronger US Dollar. A stronger US Dollar has weighed on Cotton futures prices in recent days. The USDA reports showed unchanged domestic production and a cut in export demand for ending stocks 20 thousand bales higher at 4.30 million bales. Trends are mixed to down in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate and domestic consumption of goods and services has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: USDA said that Cotton was 71% harvested, from 63% last week, 64% last year, and 63% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 68.30, 67.50, and 66.60 December, with resistance of 70.00, 71.40 and 72.70 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher again yesterday and held inside the longer term trading range and also the range set on Monday. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 465.00, 454.00, and 447.00 January, with resistance at a 481.00, 491.00, and 498.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher again yesterday as the US Dollar moved higher. Both market closed at new highs for the move. Reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops continue. The chart trends are turning up again in both markets. The harvest in Vietnam is active, but selling has been slow. Strong harvest activity is expected to continue in Vietnam this month, but a new tropical storm named Yinxing has now entered Coffee areas and could slow down the harvest and hurt yields. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 256.33 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 259.00, 253.00, and 251.00 December, and resistance is at 268.00, 272.00 and 275.00 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 4470, 4340, and 4240 January, with resistance at 4610, 4670, and 4770 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and both markets made new lows for the move before showing recoveries. Unica released new center south Brazil production data and it was 1.785 million tons, about 24.3% less than last year but stronger than trade expectations. The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are still sideways in both markets. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2100, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2210, 2260, and 2300 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 540.00, 535.00, and 530.00 December, with resistance at 550.00, 559.00, and 561.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed higher yesterday and at new highs for the move. Chart trends are up in both markets as a contra seasonal rally continues. Reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower. Producers in Ghana and in Ivory Coast have been fighting against too much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on the overall improved weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Arrivals at Ivory Coast ports are no estimated at 455,000 tons, up 30% from last year. The Ivory Coast government has now reduced contract offers by about 40% on worries about less production due to too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 7390, 7060, and 6890 December, with resistance at 8170, 8370, and 8780 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5940, 5840, and 5470 December, with resistance at 6330, 6520, and 6590 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322