Grains Report 11/08/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,179 15,006-15,300 15,203 15,341
Corn Yield 183.7 182.5-185.0 183.8 177.3
Harvested Acres 82.6 82.0-82.8 82.7 86.5
Soybean Production 4,553 4,488-4,640 4,582 4,162
Soybean Yield 52.8 52.0-53.8 53.1 50.6
Harvested Acres 86.2 85.8-86.3 86.3 82.3
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA Oct
Corn 1,921 1,801-2,071 1,999
Soybeans 535 480-602 550
Wheat 812 800-830 812
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 312.5 312.0-313.0 312.7
Soybeans 112.3 112.0-112.6 112.4
Wheat 266.2 266.0-266.4 266.2
2024-25
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 305.9 304.0-308.5 306.5
Soybeans 134.0 131.5-135.0 134.7
Wheat 256.8 255.4-258.0 257.7

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Nov 8
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 11, 2024 4 Oct 31, 2024
SOYBEAN November Nov 11, 2024 91 Oct 31, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little lower again yesterday on poor weekly export sales. Reports of very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia were also negative for prices. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers in the US to plant the Winter crops. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 562, 556, and 548 December, with resistance at 580, 589, and 595 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 561, 556, and 549 December, with resistance at 583, 593, and 603 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 595, 586, and 580 December, and resistance is at 617, 624, and 632 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed a little lower and trends are down on the charts. The US Dollar was lower, and this did not help demand ideas. USA Rice said that Iraq bought 44,000 tons of milled Rice yesterday but this did not help the market, either. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. The harvest is over for most US producers and yield reports have had a wide range from poor to good.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1429, 1416, and 1404 January and resistance is at 1465, 1474, and 1492 January.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher again yesterday as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The export demand in recent weeks has been very strong. Oats were lower. The harvest is winding down but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress gut rain is forecast for much of his week in the Midwest. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brail and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News: USDA said that 240,480 tons of Corn were received for unknown destinations.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up. Support is at 420, 414, and 409 December, and resistance is at 428, 434, and 440 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 374, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 384, 400, and 4-8 December.

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were sharply higher as the market got ready for the release of the USDA reports today. Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil were also higher as the US government issued some guidelines for bio fuels production. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are moving through Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 107,000 tons of US Soybeans and unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1018, 1004, and 992 January, and resistance is at 1030, 1045, and 1060 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 293.00, 288.00, and 285.00 December, and resistance is at 303.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4590, 4440, and 4350 December, with resistance at 4890, 4990, and 5040 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher on ideas of weaker production caused by too much rain and strength in Chicago Soybean Oil. There are reports of good demand. Canola was higher as support came from Soybean Oil on ideas that the US government has increased demand for biofuels and therefore vegetable oils.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 651.00, 635.00, and 625.00 January, with resistance at 673.00, 685.00, and 692.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4890, 4780, and 4700 January, with resistance at 5000, 5060, and 5120 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1235.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1230.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1210.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1135.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1080.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1240.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1235.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1215.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1140.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1085.00 +35.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1215.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1010.00 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,160.00 +90.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 500.00 +28.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.38)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Nov 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 237,415 lots, or 9.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 3,980 3,980 3,980 0 0 700
Jan-25 4,080 4,094 4,018 4,033 4,047 4,059 12 192,077 224,028
Mar-25 4,060 4,071 4,012 4,024 4,029 4,043 14 10,094 30,870
May-25 4,093 4,112 4,047 4,051 4,066 4,078 12 31,572 41,763
Jul-25 4,112 4,128 4,068 4,070 4,082 4,104 22 1,858 5,568
Sep-25 4,131 4,144 4,087 4,091 4,104 4,121 17 1,814 8,394
Corn
Turnover: 889,296 lots, or 19.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,185 2,200 2,160 2,160 2,185 2,191 6 4,280 13,439
Jan-25 2,225 2,230 2,193 2,199 2,223 2,211 -12 697,604 931,937
Mar-25 2,246 2,250 2,215 2,223 2,244 2,232 -12 67,619 318,238
May-25 2,303 2,306 2,272 2,276 2,297 2,287 -10 86,874 221,459
Jul-25 2,329 2,332 2,297 2,301 2,322 2,314 -8 26,784 99,907
Sep-25 2,348 2,354 2,322 2,328 2,344 2,338 -6 6,135 17,949
Soymeal
Turnover: 3,388,848 lots, or 10.16 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,068 3,078 3,037 3,038 3,068 3,052 -16 25 5,151
Dec-24 3,112 3,127 3,002 3,011 3,082 3,061 -21 39,456 70,338
Jan-25 3,112 3,116 3,005 3,013 3,068 3,061 -7 2,002,591 1,443,959
Mar-25 3,040 3,042 2,942 2,953 3,015 2,998 -17 108,350 288,718
May-25 2,891 2,912 2,840 2,850 2,854 2,879 25 1,022,796 1,717,991
Jul-25 2,876 2,895 2,836 2,846 2,847 2,870 23 34,378 180,158
Aug-25 2,981 3,003 2,934 2,946 2,949 2,970 21 16,870 108,539
Sep-25 2,983 3,005 2,933 2,945 2,946 2,973 27 164,382 337,164
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,076,864 lots, or 10.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 9,844 9,844 9,844 0 0 680
Dec-24 9,978 10,194 9,954 10,152 9,940 10,062 122 13,975 6,765
Jan-25 9,900 10,124 9,892 10,088 9,846 9,996 150 945,138 637,941
Feb-25 9,756 9,942 9,742 9,910 9,726 9,832 106 5,358 6,869
Mar-25 9,594 9,768 9,582 9,746 9,530 9,652 122 932 2,637
Apr-25 9,458 9,590 9,420 9,590 9,380 9,524 144 97 412
May-25 9,262 9,466 9,256 9,422 9,248 9,354 106 107,298 172,541
Jun-25 9,118 9,292 9,100 9,288 9,086 9,214 128 39 390
Jul-25 8,910 9,102 8,904 9,102 8,900 8,980 80 101 318
Aug-25 8,786 8,896 8,750 8,896 8,766 8,818 52 18 71
Sep-25 8,634 8,840 8,616 8,786 8,640 8,734 94 3,887 8,907
Oct-25 8,564 8,706 8,546 8,706 8,564 8,602 38 21 169
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 931,359 lots, or 81.68 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 – – – 8,428 8,428 8,428 0 0 40
Dec-24 8,794 9,010 8,752 8,820 8,794 8,866 72 10,481 12,165
Jan-25 8,816 9,024 8,770 8,840 8,796 8,880 84 694,438 673,910
Mar-25 8,580 8,740 8,542 8,620 8,564 8,626 62 3,798 10,220
May-25 8,362 8,534 8,362 8,450 8,354 8,438 84 209,086 423,578
Jul-25 8,114 8,312 8,114 8,236 8,144 8,216 72 325 1,794
Aug-25 8,144 8,272 8,144 8,216 8,144 8,196 52 46 235
Sep-25 8,100 8,260 8,100 8,176 8,080 8,164 84 13,185 25,692
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322