Softs Report 11/05/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little lower yesterday as export demand remains weak. The export sales report showed improved sales, but the sales were still down overall. Trends are mixed in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News: USDA said that Cotton was 63% harvested, from 52% last week, 55% last year, and 54% average.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 69.30, 68.30, and 67.50 December, with resistance of 71.40, 71.90 and 72.70 December.

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply lower yesterday. Trends are mixed to down in this market as the market remains short juice for delivery. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 454.00, and 447.00 January, with resistance at a 481.00, 492.00, and 498.00 January.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday on reports of reduced offers from Brazil and Vietnam on weather induced short crops. The harvest in Vietnam is starting again. The chart trends are mixed in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active. Strong harvest activity is expected to start in Vietnam thismonth. The demand for Vietnamese Coffee is reported to be less right now and this has been a big problem for bullish traders. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions. Brazil yields have been a little less so far.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 242.12 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 228.00 December, and resistance is at 248.00, 256.00 and 265.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4270, 4000, and 3790 January, with resistance at 4350, 4470, and 4560 January.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London were lower yesterday despite reports of too much rain in Brazil. The rains have kept the harvest and crushing pace down but could provide a boost to production for next year. Trends are still sideways in both markets but are trying to turn down. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. It is also wet in Brazil, and this has affected harvest progress. Supplies available to the market could be less in the next six months. Total Brazil production has been affected by drought seen earlier in the year and the fires that destroyed crops in some areas.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2160, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2260, 2300, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 552.00, 541.00, and 537.00 December, with resistance at 568.00, 580.00, and 584.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower yesterday on ideas of good harvest progress. Reports of better harvest conditions in West Africa have helped push differentials lower, but it has been wet there and Ghana now estimates production this year at 650,000 tons from 700,000 tons previously. Producers in Ghana are protesting against Cocobod and claim that the authority has been unfair to them. Producers there and in Ivory Coast have been fighting to much rain that has made it hard to harvest and deliver crops. An Ivory Coast government official said that the country could produce 10% more Cocoa this year although he noted that it has been very wet recently and yields could be affected. It has been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bringing concerns that pod disease could develop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 7120, 6920, and 6820 December, with resistance at 7520, 7650, and 7850 December. Trends in London are up. Support is at 5720, 5620, and 5520 December, with resistance at 5940, 5980, and 6060 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322