Grains Report 11/04/2024

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions Breakdown: Soybeans – Nov 4
Delivery detail of issues/stops for next business day, in contracts.
Source: CME Group
NOVEMBER 2024 SOYBEAN FUTURES
NEXT AVAILABLE DATE: 10/18/2024
INTENT DATE: 11/01/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/05/2024
FIRM NBR ORIG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
660 CUST JP MORGAN 440 107
905 CUST ADM INV SER 333
TOTAL: 440 440
MONTH TO DATE: 634

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were lower last week on forecasts for very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest and reports of weaker offers in Russia. The rains are falling and will allow Wheat farmers to plant the Winter crops. Little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US but that is starting to change. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Both areas could get better rain in the next two weeks. Cash markets in Russia were lower as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 556, 544, and 538 December, with resistance at 589, 595, and 598 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 561, 556, and 549 December, with resistance at 583, 593, and 603 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 595, 586, and 580 December, and resistance is at 617, 624, and 632 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 484,496
: Positions :
: 43,593 111,989 155,342 101,624 106,025 151,036 70,417 451,595 443,773: 32,901 40,723
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,454) :
: 164 2,247 -8,892 3,265 -6,845 2,422 7,012 -3,041 -6,478: -413 3,024
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 23.1 32.1 21.0 21.9 31.2 14.5 93.2 91.6: 6.8 8.4
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 103 121 102 108 47 33 304 301:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 279,555
: Positions :
: 26,745 50,180 70,563 64,712 97,622 97,373 37,800 259,393 256,164: 20,162 23,392
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: 12,643) :
: 1,382 8,270 5,629 3,406 -3,543 1,140 2,672 11,557 13,027: 1,086 -384
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.6 17.9 25.2 23.1 34.9 34.8 13.5 92.8 91.6: 7.2 8.4
: Total Traders: 249 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 47 60 63 79 74 39 22 200 188:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 78,880 :
: Positions :
: 37,910 24,373 3,982 379 124 7,781 23,762 9,469 2,560 3,890 5,093 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 :
: 3,205 -2,814 442 379 -8 -583 5,181 1,682 -24 926 1,295 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 48.1 30.9 5.0 0.5 0.2 9.9 30.1 12.0 3.2 4.9 6.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 120 :
: 55 36 6 . 4 10 25 13 10 8 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower last week and trends are now down on the charts. The US Dollar was higher and this hurt demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. The harvest is over for most US producers and yield reports have had a wide range from poor to good. Export demand was not strong last week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1464, 1452, and 1440 January and resistance is at 1490, 1503, and 1513 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,727 :
: Positions :
: 5,738 6,137 86 218 0 462 1,824 0 1,766 66 298 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 :
: 658 -256 17 15 0 -190 364 -76 -97 3 -386 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.0 63.1 0.9 2.2 0.0 4.7 18.8 0.0 18.2 0.7 3.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 54 :
: 22 15 . . 0 . 9 0 12 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower last week as the US harvest wraps up and as demand remains strong. The weekly export sales report showed less sales from last week, but the sales were still strong. There was a new demand announcement made Friday that Mexico bought over 781,000 tons and the demand in recent weeks has been very strong. Oats were higher. The harvest is winding down but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It has been very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress gut rain is forecast for much of his week in the Midwest. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brail and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 150,000 tons of US Corn and unknown destinatios bought 120,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 399, and 397 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 428 September. Trends in Oats are up. Support is at 390, 381, and 374 December, and resistance is at 406, 412, and 415 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,131,836
: Positions :
: 194,168 235,620 650,627 672,518 857,638 435,194 148,416 1,952,507 1,892,302: 179,329 239,534
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: 10,449) :
: 17,358 -23,322 -10,763 3,984 65,681 3 -23,799 10,583 7,797: -134 2,652
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.1 11.1 30.5 31.5 40.2 20.4 7.0 91.6 88.8: 8.4 11.2
: Total Traders: 842 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 155 149 210 393 398 51 31 702 699:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 4,212 :
: Positions :
: 694 2,269 198 250 0 786 136 0 657 237 163 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 :
: -9 31 1 0 0 15 5 0 -3 84 -8 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.5 53.9 4.7 5.9 0.0 18.7 3.2 0.0 15.6 5.6 3.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 20 :
: 6 6 . . 0 4 . 0 4 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans were a little lower and Soybean Meal was lower last week as demand news was seen and on ideas that the US government is about to announce new limits on biofuels production that could greatly increase the demand for Soybean Oil. Soybean Meal was hurt on spreads against Soybean Oil.. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are moving through Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Rains are now in the forecast for much of this week. Central and northern Brazil rains will continue as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destination bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 977, 974, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1018, and 1030 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 294.00, 288.00, and 285.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 323.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up. Support is at 4750, 4700, and 4590 December, with resistance at 4890, 4940, and 5000 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,077,260
: Positions :
: 95,309 173,977 307,586 418,388 420,967 195,031 94,272 1,016,315 996,802: 60,945 80,458
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: -200,338) :
: 4,628 11,394 -102,851 -86,222 -77,565 -13,914 -23,617 -198,358 -192,639: -1,980 -7,699
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.8 16.1 28.6 38.8 39.1 18.1 8.8 94.3 92.5: 5.7 7.5
: Total Traders: 589 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97 154 170 238 243 45 22 492 488:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 588,076
: Positions :
: 80,417 80,682 120,645 181,565 319,727 172,602 40,545 555,230 561,598: 32,847 26,478
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: -6,028) :
: -2,497 7,932 -11,627 5,847 -6,129 5,539 3,158 -2,738 -6,666: -3,290 639
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.7 13.7 20.5 30.9 54.4 29.4 6.9 94.4 95.5: 5.6 4.5
: Total Traders: 329 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 72 79 96 108 96 48 26 284 245:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 661,109
: Positions :
: 81,747 95,522 164,419 203,527 331,494 150,770 38,564 600,463 629,999: 60,646 31,110
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 (Change in open interest: 17,442) :
: -14,091 24,937 7,871 17,112 -21,231 3,665 6,633 14,557 18,210: 2,885 -768
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.4 14.4 24.9 30.8 50.1 22.8 5.8 90.8 95.3: 9.2 4.7
: Total Traders: 340 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 87 99 125 112 41 20 292 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher last week in reaction to strong monthly export news. AmSpec said exports were 1.5812 million tons in October, up 13.7% from the previous month. There are ideas of weaker production to go along with the reports of good demand. Canola was lower, but support came from Soybean Oil on ideas that the US government will soon increase demand for biofuels and therefore vegetable oils.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 635.00, 623.00, and 605.00 January, with resistance at 659.00, 673.00, and 685.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4590, 4480, and 4370 January, with resistance at 4720, 4780, and 4840 January.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 35,909 :
: Positions :
: 30,331 13,752 220 12,094 730 870 1,806 120 378 4,125 3,260 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 :
: 930 820 0 0 0 0 160 0 30 -20 -140 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 84.5 38.3 0.6 33.7 2.0 2.4 5.0 0.3 1.1 11.5 9.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 38 :
: 10 11 . 7 5 . . . . 8 4 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 29, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 217,976 :
: Positions :
: 151,112 100,422 3,422 10,479 588 26,638 59,141 15,349 8,467 18,465 11,014 :
: Changes from: October 22, 2024 :
: -21,787 15,299 -375 -2,181 -695 11,969 -20,609 -2,248 2,309 78 -3,185 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 69.3 46.1 1.6 4.8 0.3 12.2 27.1 7.0 3.9 8.5 5.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 320 :
: 52 67 4 5 4 30 52 27 54 79 60 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Rain. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Nov 4
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1192.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1185.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1155.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1092.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 1042.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1197.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1190.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1160.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1097.50 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1047.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1182.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 5,020.00 +40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 447.00 +13.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.373)

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322