Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
Translate
Grains Report 10/31/2024
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 31
For the week ended Oct 24, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 411.4 0.0 13496.9 11362.4 4197.0 27.0
hrw 138.2 0.0 3073.2 2069.0 856.7 0.0
srw 23.7 0.0 2211.4 2668.0 732.2 27.0
hrs 125.1 0.0 4457.2 3922.9 1419.6 0.0
white 124.4 0.0 3517.4 2415.7 1092.2 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 237.8 286.8 96.4 0.0
corn 2341.7 0.0 25819.8 18275.4 19065.6 693.2
soybeans 2273.3 0.0 26265.9 23160.9 15950.0 1.0
soymeal 208.4 0.1 5533.5 5598.3 4714.4 2.0
soyoil 10.4 0.0 119.3 22.7 106.3 0.0
upland cotton 189.4 0.0 5663.4 6538.3 4211.8 411.3
pima cotton 11.5 0.0 188.2 128.9 98.0 0.0
sorghum 5.7 0.0 756.0 2926.9 443.9 0.0
barley 2.6 0.0 24.6 16.1 20.1 0.0
rice 12.7 0.0 1231.0 1010.2 546.3 0.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 31
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
ROUGH RICE November Nov 01, 2024 162 Aug 27, 2024
SOYBEAN November Nov 01, 2024 97 Sep 04, 2024
WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were a little higher yesterday after trading both sides of unchanged despite forecasts for very beneficial rains for the Great Plains and Midwest. The rains started to fall last night and will allow Wheat farmers to plant the Winter crops. The US Dollar was lower. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Both areas could get better rains in the next two weeks. Cash markets in Russia were higher as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 556, 544, and 538 December, with resistance at 589, 595, and 598 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 561, 556, and 549 December, with resistance at 583, 593, and 603 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 595, 586, and 580 December, and resistance is at 617, 624, and 632 December.
RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed sharply lower yesterday and trends are now down on the daily charts. The US Dollar was higher and this hurt demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice in recent weeks. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest is over for most US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1464, 1452, and 1440 January and resistance is at 1490, 1503, and 1513 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher as demand remains strong. There were no new demand announcements made yesterday but the demand in recent weeks have been very strong. The US Dollar was lower. Oats were higher. The harvest is winding down, but is still active and yield reports in general have been strong. It remains very dry in the Midwest to promote the very active harvest progress. The harvest will be complete in two weeks or less. Some rain is in the forecast for later this week. Corn is being harvested with dry grain. The Corn is often well below 12% moisture level and this could cost some yield at the end of the day. Crop conditions in southern Brazil and Argentina with reports of ample moisture in southern Brail and report of improving moisture levels in Argentina. The demand has been strong and it could be that the US political situation is playing a part in the strength in demand as many fear that Trump can win and would impose new tariffs and create trade wars.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 399, and 397 December, and resistance is at 418, 424, and 428 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 374, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 394, 397, and 400 December.
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were mostly higher yesterday as demand news was seen. China and Unknown destinations were the buyers. The US Dollar was lower. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. An uptrend is still possible. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. It could be that export buyers and sellers are getting ahead of any threat of a new Trump presidency and the threat of another big round of tariffs now. China has announced new economic support measures for its economy last week. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans harvest but now are almost done and are moving through Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Rains are now in the forecast for the next few days. Central and northern Brazil rains will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 150,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 977, 974, and 962 January, and resistance is at 1003, 1018, and 1030 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 300.00, 294.00, and 288.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 323.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4260, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4420, 4530, and 4560 December.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was closed for a holiday. There are ideas of weaker production to go along with the reports of good demand. Canola was lower as the Canadian Dollar held higher. Ideas are that China might be buying ahead to get imports in place before any new tariffs are decided and the Canadian Grain Commission reported strong Chinese demand earlier in the week. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 635.00, 623.00, and 605.00 January, with resistance at 658.00, 673.00, and 685.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4590, 4480, and 4370 January, with resistance at 4720, 4780, and 4840 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast Scattered showers. Temperatures should average near normal.
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 31
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 103,379 lots, or 4.13 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,931 3,969 3,931 3,957 3,923 3,947 24 1,769 5,611
Jan-25 4,000 4,010 3,981 3,994 3,963 3,993 30 88,586 205,576
Mar-25 3,973 3,988 3,966 3,978 3,952 3,975 23 4,396 31,486
May-25 4,010 4,022 4,002 4,016 3,988 4,013 25 7,498 37,093
Jul-25 4,028 4,041 4,021 4,035 4,010 4,031 21 523 5,795
Sep-25 4,049 4,058 4,040 4,052 4,028 4,050 22 607 8,080
Corn
Turnover: 513,666 lots, or 11.59 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,215 2,215 2,197 2,206 2,192 2,204 12 15,691 49,581
Jan-25 2,248 2,254 2,239 2,248 2,236 2,245 9 393,584 891,715
Mar-25 2,265 2,273 2,260 2,266 2,256 2,265 9 35,904 285,007
May-25 2,316 2,320 2,306 2,314 2,305 2,311 6 45,483 153,138
Jul-25 2,329 2,336 2,324 2,333 2,322 2,329 7 16,077 88,138
Sep-25 2,352 2,355 2,345 2,352 2,341 2,350 9 6,927 14,385
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,532,410 lots, or 4.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,946 2,946 2,895 2,895 2,905 2,910 5 6,294 18,949
Dec-24 3,018 3,025 2,984 2,993 2,991 3,005 14 37,328 176,053
Jan-25 3,015 3,020 2,983 2,992 2,995 2,999 4 985,734 1,521,998
Mar-25 2,975 2,981 2,939 2,950 2,969 2,955 -14 57,265 241,772
May-25 2,839 2,844 2,824 2,829 2,826 2,832 6 377,784 1,501,905
Jul-25 2,821 2,829 2,816 2,820 2,815 2,821 6 15,938 150,949
Aug-25 2,915 2,921 2,910 2,912 2,909 2,914 5 3,413 92,620
Sep-25 2,917 2,926 2,912 2,915 2,910 2,917 7 48,654 290,433
Palm Oil
Turnover: 796,197 lots, or 74.79 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 9,550 9,632 9,486 9,486 9,480 9,588 108 384 848
Dec-24 9,506 9,528 9,418 9,522 9,412 9,488 76 12,122 12,066
Jan-25 9,438 9,492 9,354 9,478 9,342 9,436 94 707,413 597,891
Feb-25 9,330 9,384 9,260 9,380 9,244 9,332 88 312 486
Mar-25 9,220 9,280 9,158 9,268 9,130 9,226 96 504 2,709
Apr-25 9,112 9,150 9,044 9,150 9,026 9,100 74 73 438
May-25 8,986 9,044 8,914 9,036 8,910 8,990 80 73,544 157,514
Jun-25 8,828 8,892 8,828 8,852 8,784 8,860 76 36 280
Jul-25 8,676 8,750 8,650 8,698 8,626 8,712 86 57 292
Aug-25 8,480 8,586 8,480 8,586 8,502 8,544 42 8 71
Sep-25 8,408 8,498 8,368 8,484 8,376 8,440 64 1,730 5,512
Oct-25 8,358 8,392 8,334 8,392 8,328 8,356 28 14 154
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 482,740 lots, or 40.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,232 8,232 8,168 8,194 8,180 8,194 14 2,711 4,179
Dec-24 8,428 8,444 8,366 8,432 8,370 8,412 42 5,926 12,428
Jan-25 8,476 8,478 8,390 8,460 8,408 8,440 32 366,120 654,223
Mar-25 8,284 8,308 8,232 8,274 8,230 8,270 40 613 5,413
May-25 8,080 8,100 8,014 8,078 8,036 8,062 26 102,377 410,243
Jul-25 7,880 7,888 7,824 7,868 7,838 7,862 24 92 1,551
Aug-25 7,876 7,876 7,828 7,860 7,830 7,860 30 45 231
Sep-25 7,834 7,860 7,798 7,826 7,806 7,830 24 4,856 15,864
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.