Grains Report 10/25/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: The markets were higher yesterday and rallied in part due to a relatively strong weekly export sales report from USDA. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 564, 561, and 556 December, with resistance at 589, 595, and 598 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 577, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 592, 603, and 608 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 609, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 624, 632, and 646 December.

RICE:
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The US Dollar was higher and this hurt demand ideas. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice in recent weeks. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest is over for most US producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1495, 1489, and 1475 November and resistance is at 1508, 1525, and 1532 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on a very strong weekly export sales report and despite active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Oats were higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 8% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already among the cheapest in the world and on the threat of a new Trump presidency that could impose tariffs on overseas customers again.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 136,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 413, 408, and 399 December, and resistance is at 424, 428, and 434 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 374, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 384, 390, and 394 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were higher and Soybean Meal was lower yesterday on demand reports that were strong again for export in the weekly and daily export sales reports yesterday. Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. An uptrend is most likely starting. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. It could be that export buyers and sellers are getting ahead of any threat of a new Trump presidency and the threat of another big round of tariffs now. China has announced new economic support measures for its economy this week. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil rains will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 116,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 984, 968, and 961 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 323.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4300, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4530, 4560, and 4670 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower today on speculative profit taking. There are ideas of weaker production to go along with the reports of good demand. Canola was higher as competing oils also rallied. Ideas are that China might be buying ahead to get imports in place before any new tariffs are decided and the Canadian Grain Commission reported strong Chinese demand earlier in the week. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 627.00, 614.00, and 6w07.00 November, with resistance at 647.00, 668.00, and 681.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4360, 4310, and 4230 January, with resistance at 4660, 4720, and 4780 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1115.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1107.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1077.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1035.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 995.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1120.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1112.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1082.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1040.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 1000.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1110.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 940.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4,680.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 415.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.34)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 197,471 lots, or 7.85 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,973 3,980 3,899 3,899 3,980 3,955 -25 1,498 6,933
Jan-25 4,016 4,020 3,920 3,925 4,016 3,973 -43 164,965 205,065
Mar-25 4,003 4,012 3,921 3,926 4,004 3,971 -33 8,816 32,228
May-25 4,035 4,043 3,958 3,961 4,029 4,003 -26 17,898 33,195
Jul-25 4,055 4,060 3,978 3,981 4,046 4,020 -26 2,418 5,250
Sep-25 4,065 4,075 3,998 3,999 4,060 4,035 -25 1,876 7,510
Corn
Turnover: 711,787 lots, or 15.91 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,188 2,197 2,180 2,183 2,191 2,188 -3 21,059 72,821
Jan-25 2,228 2,240 2,220 2,225 2,231 2,228 -3 553,369 838,443
Mar-25 2,243 2,260 2,241 2,247 2,251 2,250 -1 78,086 267,271
May-25 2,283 2,298 2,279 2,284 2,285 2,287 2 42,553 125,477
Jul-25 2,300 2,313 2,294 2,298 2,302 2,302 0 14,285 81,927
Sep-25 2,317 2,330 2,312 2,315 2,319 2,319 0 2,435 9,037
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,107,980 lots, or 61.90 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,918 2,931 2,857 2,875 2,913 2,889 -24 10,771 39,420
Dec-24 2,997 3,020 2,943 2,944 2,994 2,970 -24 20,877 200,431
Jan-25 3,007 3,022 2,946 2,948 2,989 2,979 -10 1,337,716 1,650,157
Mar-25 2,974 2,997 2,935 2,937 2,954 2,960 6 39,732 178,089
May-25 2,847 2,868 2,810 2,816 2,834 2,840 6 575,934 1,420,657
Jul-25 2,837 2,858 2,800 2,805 2,827 2,829 2 24,412 145,611
Aug-25 2,930 2,948 2,896 2,900 2,914 2,921 7 7,895 87,906
Sep-25 2,934 2,950 2,896 2,902 2,915 2,923 8 90,643 243,798
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,121,522 lots, or 10.47 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 9,488 9,594 9,374 9,414 9,340 9,466 126 871 1,517
Dec-24 9,448 9,614 9,360 9,374 9,326 9,490 164 15,080 9,412
Jan-25 9,336 9,474 9,266 9,302 9,202 9,376 174 995,125 578,692
Feb-25 9,212 9,340 9,178 9,218 9,092 9,250 158 412 515
Mar-25 9,126 9,260 9,070 9,122 9,030 9,164 134 689 3,293
Apr-25 9,038 9,154 8,978 9,038 8,932 9,068 136 144 461
May-25 8,950 9,066 8,860 8,902 8,842 8,970 128 107,173 153,533
Jun-25 8,844 8,936 8,754 8,800 8,716 8,838 122 86 219
Jul-25 8,692 8,802 8,656 8,670 8,620 8,706 86 70 263
Aug-25 8,604 8,666 8,546 8,564 8,498 8,582 84 35 55
Sep-25 8,442 8,580 8,400 8,436 8,392 8,500 108 1,734 4,507
Oct-25 8,450 8,556 8,390 8,448 8,356 8,514 158 103 134
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 836,311 lots, or 70.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,296 8,418 8,296 8,336 8,238 8,366 128 3,379 7,602
Dec-24 8,470 8,572 8,470 8,480 8,398 8,526 128 8,319 12,925
Jan-25 8,504 8,606 8,496 8,518 8,428 8,558 130 641,793 710,129
Mar-25 8,318 8,404 8,300 8,306 8,248 8,350 102 1,292 5,181
May-25 8,126 8,216 8,116 8,122 8,046 8,164 118 176,087 394,942
Jul-25 7,922 7,992 7,906 7,914 7,838 7,948 110 140 1,530
Aug-25 7,920 7,982 7,906 7,922 7,846 7,944 98 51 224
Sep-25 7,900 7,984 7,882 7,888 7,804 7,930 126 5,250 10,577
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322