Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Softs Report 10/24/2024
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was a little higher again yesterday as export demand remains weak but improvement is possible. Trends are still turning up in this market. China moved to lower interest rates again and there are hopes this move will help restart the economic engine there. Real estate has been the big problem there. There are still reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 72.70, 73.50 and 74.10 December.
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 24
For the week ended Oct 17, in thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales, less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
upland cotton 169.7 0.0 5473.9 6081.2 4156.7 411.3
pima cotton 4.4 0.0 176.6 103.1 95.7 0.0
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed mostly higher yesterday, with November the leader as the market remains short of juice. Trends are turning up again in this market. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to up. Support is at 474.00, 458.00, and 454.00 November, with resistance at a 509.00, 512.00, and 518.00 November
COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London were higher yesterday in recovery trading, but London November closed slightly lower, and the chart trends are down in both markets as the harvest in Vietnam is more active. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for good rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 248.05 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 248.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 265.00, 268.00 and 271.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4410, 4320, and 4160 November, with resistance at 4650, 4800, and 4900 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday ad speculators bought the market despite reports of better rains that started early in the month and variable world petroleum prices. Crude Oil futures were lower yesterday and trends are turning up again in that market. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2100, 2020, and 1980 March and resistance is at 2260, 2290, and 2340 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 577.00, 586.00, and 590.00 December.
COCOA
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322General Comments: New York and London closed lower again yesterday on better harvest conditions in West Africa. It had been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bring concerns that pod disease could develop. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to keep conditions too wet in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6850, 6820, and 6600 December, with resistance at 7440, 7510, and 7650 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 5300, 5130, and 4960 December, with resistance at 5610, 5720, and 6050 December.