Grains Report 10/23/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets mostly higher yesterday, but nearby months in Chicago closed slightly lower. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 564, 561, and 556 December, with resistance at 589, 595, and 598 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 577, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 592, 603, and 608 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 609, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 624, 632, and 646 December.

RICE: Rice closed higher again yesterday and trends are still mixed on the daily charts. It appears that Rice charts are in the process of posting a bottom. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest is wrapping up this week for most US producers.
General Comments:
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1501, 1489, and 1475 November and resistance is at 1525, 1532, and 1540 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher despite active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Oats were higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 8% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already among the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 100,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 408, 399, and 397 December, and resistance is at 420, 424, and 428 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 374, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 382, 390, and 394 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher again yesterday and the carry spreads were firm as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. It might be an indication that an uptrend is about to start. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves to support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations boyght 259,000 tons of US Soybeans and China bought 130,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 968, 961, and 948 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 323.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 4020 December, with resistance at 4430, 4530, and 4560 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on strength in outside markets and on reports from private sources of good demand. There are ideas of weaker production to along with the reports of good demand. Canola was a little higher on reports from the Canadian Grain Commission of very good demand from China. Ideas are that China might be buying ahead t get imports in place before any new tariffs are decided. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 614.00, 607.00, and 595.00 November, with resistance at 633.00, 647.00, and 668.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up. Support is at 4360, 4310, and 4230 January, with resistance at 4480, 4540, and 4600 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1112.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1100.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1065.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1027.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Seep 992.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1117.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1105.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1070.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1032.50 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 997.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 1105.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 925.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 4,590.00 +100.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Nov 406.00 +18.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.353)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 141,489 lots, or .56 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,936 3,962 3,936 3,962 3,933 3,953 20 1,734 6,910
Jan-25 3,969 4,002 3,969 4,000 3,969 3,989 20 117,182 191,897
Mar-25 3,961 3,991 3,961 3,991 3,963 3,982 19 5,671 31,160
May-25 3,996 4,026 3,987 4,019 3,989 4,011 22 13,936 29,251
Jul-25 4,004 4,036 3,985 4,036 4,003 4,019 16 1,613 5,387
Sep-25 4,019 4,050 4,014 4,050 4,019 4,040 21 1,353 6,106
Corn
Turnover: 1,055,053 lots, or 23.27 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,141 2,187 2,141 2,187 2,135 2,160 25 94,697 76,816
Jan-25 2,181 2,228 2,178 2,228 2,170 2,201 31 787,407 841,466
Mar-25 2,194 2,248 2,194 2,248 2,185 2,220 35 75,527 270,697
May-25 2,245 2,284 2,245 2,284 2,235 2,263 28 55,536 134,875
Jul-25 2,260 2,300 2,260 2,300 2,253 2,283 30 37,954 81,515
Sep-25 2,278 2,318 2,278 2,317 2,270 2,300 30 3,932 8,622
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,148,765 lots, or 63.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,932 2,952 2,892 2,919 2,922 2,924 2 34,353 54,125
Dec-24 2,980 3,022 2,969 2,992 2,982 2,998 16 20,277 199,361
Jan-25 2,982 3,017 2,966 2,988 2,976 2,993 17 1,267,512 1,522,343
Mar-25 2,910 2,968 2,905 2,944 2,904 2,934 30 55,349 165,583
May-25 2,793 2,843 2,792 2,829 2,787 2,819 32 632,609 1,354,754
Jul-25 2,787 2,832 2,787 2,823 2,785 2,811 26 15,243 136,579
Aug-25 2,879 2,922 2,879 2,910 2,873 2,908 35 15,686 85,510
Sep-25 2,877 2,921 2,876 2,910 2,870 2,902 32 107,736 211,844
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,020,142 lots, or 92.94 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 9,112 9,386 9,110 9,376 9,004 9,248 244 3,883 2,317
Dec-24 9,098 9,354 9,084 9,350 8,988 9,258 270 12,391 8,374
Jan-25 9,026 9,232 9,014 9,230 8,920 9,138 218 915,544 577,374
Feb-25 8,948 9,122 8,932 9,122 8,832 9,028 196 377 500
Mar-25 8,878 9,058 8,852 9,056 8,780 8,952 172 503 3,363
Apr-25 8,798 8,928 8,788 8,904 8,700 8,848 148 170 449
May-25 8,730 8,874 8,702 8,870 8,626 8,794 168 85,802 152,793
Jun-25 8,684 8,744 8,680 8,740 8,528 8,682 154 58 201
Jul-25 8,522 8,600 8,522 8,592 8,418 8,516 98 28 256
Aug-25 8,412 8,496 8,402 8,486 8,328 8,442 114 27 58
Sep-25 8,298 8,412 8,298 8,412 8,252 8,376 124 1,358 3,649
Oct-25 8,332 8,332 8,332 8,332 8,196 8,332 136 1 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 705,319 lots, or 58.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,130 8,286 8,130 8,274 8,096 8,212 116 3,076 10,215
Dec-24 8,298 8,446 8,284 8,436 8,236 8,386 150 5,560 10,903
Jan-25 8,330 8,474 8,312 8,466 8,262 8,404 142 550,123 732,739
Mar-25 8,154 8,274 8,128 8,268 8,074 8,224 150 806 4,738
May-25 7,944 8,078 7,928 8,070 7,878 8,014 136 143,027 376,466
Jul-25 7,768 7,868 7,768 7,868 7,700 7,814 114 231 1,531
Aug-25 7,782 7,864 7,776 7,864 7,694 7,820 126 56 227
Sep-25 7,716 7,860 7,716 7,854 7,672 7,808 136 2,440 8,158
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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