Softs Report 10/21/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower last week as export demand remains weak and trader do not expect much improvement in at least the short term. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and both areas also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down. Support is at 70.20, 69.30, and 67.50 December, with resistance of 72.00, 72.70 and 73.50 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 296,469
: Positions :
: 24,912 61,758 76,411 86,717 125,430 93,162 18,597 281,202 282,196: 15,267 14,273
: Changes from: October 8, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,596) :
: 2,452 1,928 -2,331 1,083 95 1,811 2,518 3,015 2,210: -420 386
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.4 20.8 25.8 29.3 42.3 31.4 6.3 94.9 95.2: 5.1 4.8
: Total Traders: 296 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 75 89 98 67 65 45 25 246 222:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed slightly higher last week as the effects of Hurricane Milton are now part of the price. The storm brought reports of more damage to orange trees and to infrastructure to the state and its industry. USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 18 million in its previous report and 20 million last year. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 474.00, 458.00, and 454.00 November, with resistance at a 490.00, 509.00, and 512.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 14,650 :
: Positions :
: 2,311 8,335 658 0 345 3,416 159 25 1,069 541 4,050 :
: Changes from: October 8, 2024 :
: 147 704 5 0 -41 70 -56 2 154 -1 323 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.8 56.9 4.5 0.0 2.4 23.3 1.1 0.2 7.3 3.7 27.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 56 :
: 11 10 . 0 . 17 . . 10 9 9 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York was higher last week, but London was lower, and the chart trends in London remain down as the harvest in Vietnam becomes more active. New York chart trends are mixed. Rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. There are now reports for some rains in Brazil as the rainy season is now under way after very dry conditions. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is 253.54 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 249.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 265.00, 268.00 and 271.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4670, 4540, and 4450 November, with resistance at 4900, 5000, and 5100 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 257,132
: Positions :
: 51,798 11,142 69,771 61,927 157,681 64,859 12,996 248,355 251,589: 8,777 5,543
: Changes from: October 8, 2024 (Change in open interest: 918) :
: 2,836 -1,797 -1,345 -1,705 3,665 1,415 382 1,200 905: -282 13
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.1 4.3 27.1 24.1 61.3 25.2 5.1 96.6 97.8: 3.4 2.2
: Total Traders: 390 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 139 59 117 97 122 50 21 330 283:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed a little lower last week on reports of better rains starting early in the month and variable world petroleum prices. A cold front has moved north from southern Brazil last week that has spread north and brought much needed rains to Sugar areas. Harvest progress is active in Brazil and growing conditions are much improved in India and Thailand. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down. Support is at 2170, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2290, 2340, and 2360 March. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 555.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 586.00, 590.00, and 593.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 993,519
: Positions :
: 130,450 114,050 229,060 318,130 576,864 228,793 26,504 906,433 946,478: 87,086 47,041
: Changes from: October 8, 2024 (Change in open interest: 2,086) :
: 4,766 2,536 -2,504 -7,154 690 3,610 2,313 -1,283 3,035: 3,369 -949
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 11.5 23.1 32.0 58.1 23.0 2.7 91.2 95.3: 8.8 4.7
: Total Traders: 236 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 77 37 78 68 72 41 17 213 179:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed higher and London closed a little lower last week with the weather once again playing a price supporting role and the ongoing harvest keeping prices weaker. It had been very wet in West Africa lately and this is bring concerns that pod disease could develop. The current rally attempt is not expected to go very far as the harvest has started in West Africa. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to keep conditions too wet in West Africa.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up. Support is at 7490, 7230, and 7060 December, with resistance at 8170, 8240, and 8800 December. Trends in London are mixed to up. Support is at 5620, 5490, and 5350 December, with resistance at 6060, 6250, and 6580 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 194,838
: Positions :
: 29,915 11,187 68,425 55,536 100,284 29,840 9,886 183,716 189,782: 11,122 5,056
: Changes from: October 8, 2024 (Change in open interest: 8,037) :
: 2,377 34 -2 5,594 7,634 355 -270 8,324 7,395: -287 642
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.4 5.7 35.1 28.5 51.5 15.3 5.1 94.3 97.4: 5.7 2.6
: Total Traders: 175 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 59 41 60 37 35 30 12 159 119:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322