About The Author

Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 18
For the week ended Oct 10, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 504.1 0.0 12552.6 10723.1 3773.6 27.0
hrw 76.7 0.0 2874.2 1850.3 814.7 0.0
srw 37.9 0.0 1982.4 2600.7 597.5 27.0
hrs 208.5 0.0 4153.8 3653.1 1266.7 0.0
white 151.0 0.0 3305.3 2337.3 999.2 0.0
durum 30.0 0.0 237.0 281.8 95.6 0.0
corn 2225.7 0.0 19875.5 16176.3 14908.3 112.0
soybeans 1702.7 0.0 21840.8 20796.1 16416.7 1.0
soymeal 251.4 0.8 5169.0 5014.1 4878.8 2.1
soyoil 0.4 0.0 80.0 20.9 71.7 0.0
upland cotton 159.8 0.0 5304.2 5895.1 4085.4 411.3
pima cotton 2.6 0.0 172.2 89.0 95.4 0.0
sorghum 9.4 0.0 678.3 2356.3 370.2 0.0
barley 1.0 0.0 20.7 16.1 17.1 0.0
rice 126.8 0.0 1152.4 851.6 598.1 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher again yesterday on follow through buying. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 575, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 589, 598, and 611 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 593, 608, and 623 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 611, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 632, 646, and 655 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower early and gave back the Wednesday gains yesterday. Trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The USDA reports released on Friday showed no changes to US supply and demand results. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest should be wrapping up this week for most producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1475, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1524, 1532, and 1540 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher on follow through buying with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Oats were higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 8% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 125,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 399, 397, and 387 December, and resistance is at 409, 413, and 420 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 377, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 394, 397, and 400 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Soybean Oil closed higher. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 292,800 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 968, 961, and 948 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 4020 December, with resistance at 4330, 4430, and 4530 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on strength in the outside markets. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 595.00, 588.00, and 572.00 November, with resistance at 616.00, 627.00, and 633.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4360, 4420, and 4480 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1062.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1050.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1020.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1000.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1067.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1005.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1060.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 905.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,380.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 376.00 +06.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3025)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 111,160 lots, or 4.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,926 3,949 3,912 3,942 3,936 3,932 -4 1,735 7,460
Jan-25 3,962 3,985 3,941 3,975 3,971 3,966 -5 94,623 190,942
Mar-25 3,952 3,976 3,940 3,966 3,966 3,961 -5 5,002 31,147
May-25 3,982 4,006 3,972 3,991 4,002 3,990 -12 8,388 28,569
Jul-25 4,002 4,021 3,989 4,008 4,018 4,005 -13 860 5,556
Sep-25 4,022 4,038 4,004 4,024 4,034 4,023 -11 552 5,701
Corn
Turnover: 762,207 lots, or 16.70 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,155 2,171 2,144 2,165 2,173 2,157 -16 109,546 109,925
Jan-25 2,190 2,205 2,176 2,198 2,203 2,190 -13 555,164 744,107
Mar-25 2,198 2,215 2,188 2,207 2,214 2,200 -14 43,657 269,502
May-25 2,255 2,262 2,241 2,256 2,261 2,250 -11 34,164 119,731
Jul-25 2,271 2,279 2,258 2,272 2,280 2,267 -13 17,670 74,012
Sep-25 2,285 2,296 2,276 2,293 2,296 2,283 -13 2,006 6,658
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,851,589 lots, or 54.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,926 2,965 2,904 2,954 2,964 2,945 -19 45,442 93,855
Dec-24 2,972 3,013 2,948 3,005 3,006 2,977 -29 16,525 191,771
Jan-25 2,960 3,005 2,931 2,995 2,993 2,970 -23 1,260,723 1,514,911
Mar-25 2,890 2,939 2,868 2,930 2,910 2,911 1 26,743 151,895
May-25 2,764 2,801 2,742 2,793 2,785 2,772 -13 431,734 1,328,097
Jul-25 2,762 2,796 2,745 2,789 2,780 2,772 -8 16,089 133,500
Aug-25 2,845 2,879 2,830 2,875 2,868 2,857 -11 3,047 74,211
Sep-25 2,843 2,879 2,826 2,874 2,862 2,856 -6 51,286 180,448
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,374,828 lots, or 12.26 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,928 9,164 8,906 8,920 8,998 9,018 20 7,081 3,600
Dec-24 8,926 9,170 8,908 8,920 8,986 9,026 40 10,202 7,005
Jan-25 8,888 9,092 8,824 8,836 8,922 8,940 18 1,254,730 507,704
Feb-25 8,798 8,984 8,736 8,754 8,828 8,858 30 358 395
Mar-25 8,728 8,906 8,672 8,682 8,756 8,794 38 611 3,220
Apr-25 8,644 8,794 8,592 8,618 8,658 8,674 16 150 373
May-25 8,526 8,716 8,492 8,524 8,580 8,596 16 99,461 143,084
Jun-25 8,488 8,580 8,404 8,426 8,468 8,484 16 68 164
Jul-25 8,350 8,454 8,300 8,306 8,340 8,378 38 96 248
Aug-25 8,256 8,344 8,230 8,276 8,246 8,282 36 41 57
Sep-25 8,150 8,282 8,110 8,172 8,172 8,216 44 2,030 2,755
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 770,923 lots, or 6.33 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,038 8,220 8,030 8,088 8,128 8,104 -24 11,499 11,420
Dec-24 8,198 8,362 8,168 8,218 8,256 8,256 0 7,331 10,386
Jan-25 8,224 8,388 8,186 8,244 8,282 8,282 0 626,389 696,365
Mar-25 8,042 8,192 8,006 8,058 8,096 8,076 -20 320 4,408
May-25 7,822 7,988 7,800 7,866 7,888 7,898 10 118,822 353,329
Jul-25 7,664 7,800 7,642 7,684 7,704 7,712 8 209 1,293
Aug-25 7,646 7,798 7,646 7,716 7,692 7,718 26 72 190
Sep-25 7,638 7,790 7,614 7,684 7,680 7,678 -2 6,281 6,967
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322