Grains Report 10/17/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher yesterday in recovery trading. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 588, 598, and 611 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 592, 608, and 623 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 611, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 632, 646, and 655 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher after trading lower early in the session yesterday. Trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The USDA reports released on Friday showed no changes to US supply and demand results. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest should be wrapping up this week for most producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1475, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1524, 1532, and 1540 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher in recovery trading from losses seen earlier in the week with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Oats were higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 8% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 101,000 tons of US Corn and Mexico bought 197,180 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 401, 397, and 387 December, and resistance is at 409, 413, and 420 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 380, 370, and 357 December, and resistance is at 394, 397, and 400 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country and in response to the USDA reports released on Friday morning. Crude Oil closed a little lower yesterday. Soybean Meal closed higher. Ideas are that a potential Trump presidency would hurt trade potential with many countries, but especially China. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 972, 961, and 948 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 316.00, 320.00, and 327.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 4020 December, with resistance at 4330, 4430, and 4530 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on strength in the outside markets. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was a little higher on a weaker Canadian Dollar. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 596.00, 588.00, and 572.00 November, with resistance at 616.00, 627.00, and 633.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4360, 4420, and 4480 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1070.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1050.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1025.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1005.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1075.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1030.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1010.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 910.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,380.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 370.00 -04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.313)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 99,865 lots, or 3.97 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,933 3,954 3,917 3,917 3,933 3,936 3 2,953 7,917
Jan-25 3,976 3,990 3,947 3,950 3,961 3,971 10 83,006 188,151
Mar-25 3,963 3,984 3,944 3,944 3,961 3,966 5 4,373 31,538
May-25 4,015 4,028 3,979 3,979 4,005 4,002 -3 7,092 27,859
Jul-25 4,029 4,042 3,996 3,996 4,019 4,018 -1 1,292 5,638
Sep-25 4,045 4,057 4,014 4,015 4,035 4,034 -1 1,149 5,662
Corn
Turnover: 907,426 lots, or 19.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,189 2,189 2,156 2,159 2,182 2,173 -9 122,547 137,734
Jan-25 2,209 2,218 2,188 2,193 2,209 2,203 -6 683,450 715,252
Mar-25 2,220 2,225 2,197 2,201 2,218 2,214 -4 59,162 263,699
May-25 2,268 2,274 2,248 2,252 2,267 2,261 -6 28,189 115,272
Jul-25 2,285 2,292 2,266 2,268 2,285 2,280 -5 12,462 71,910
Sep-25 2,304 2,307 2,283 2,285 2,300 2,296 -4 1,616 6,661
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,028,514 lots, or 59.58 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,994 3,014 2,917 2,928 2,980 2,964 -16 66,759 110,328
Dec-24 3,017 3,047 2,964 2,970 3,010 3,006 -4 24,626 188,961
Jan-25 3,006 3,033 2,952 2,961 2,998 2,993 -5 1,358,422 1,578,174
Mar-25 2,920 2,942 2,882 2,891 2,918 2,910 -8 18,692 142,124
May-25 2,793 2,813 2,757 2,764 2,794 2,785 -9 474,615 1,320,018
Jul-25 2,792 2,809 2,757 2,762 2,791 2,780 -11 13,109 134,759
Aug-25 2,869 2,890 2,841 2,846 2,870 2,868 -2 3,888 73,030
Sep-25 2,873 2,888 2,838 2,845 2,866 2,862 -4 68,403 176,686
Palm Oil
Turnover: 861,835 lots, or 76.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,976 9,058 8,920 8,942 8,962 8,998 36 6,059 4,212
Dec-24 8,962 9,048 8,922 8,944 8,936 8,986 50 10,071 6,842
Jan-25 8,922 8,990 8,838 8,864 8,880 8,922 42 782,581 503,156
Feb-25 8,878 8,896 8,770 8,786 8,772 8,828 56 207 395
Mar-25 8,786 8,812 8,690 8,704 8,722 8,756 34 206 3,199
Apr-25 8,716 8,718 8,618 8,648 8,626 8,658 32 42 373
May-25 8,600 8,636 8,506 8,526 8,554 8,580 26 62,082 138,957
Jun-25 8,482 8,502 8,406 8,406 8,448 8,468 20 33 164
Jul-25 8,356 8,384 8,300 8,304 8,318 8,340 22 36 246
Aug-25 8,296 8,296 8,218 8,230 8,234 8,246 12 5 54
Sep-25 8,184 8,218 8,112 8,130 8,130 8,172 42 513 2,196
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 592,485 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,126 8,190 8,026 8,038 8,086 8,128 42 8,558 15,294
Dec-24 8,276 8,322 8,172 8,182 8,232 8,256 24 5,824 9,942
Jan-25 8,296 8,340 8,196 8,206 8,248 8,282 34 481,693 699,224
Mar-25 8,084 8,148 8,016 8,016 8,068 8,096 28 302 4,482
May-25 7,882 7,940 7,806 7,818 7,868 7,888 20 94,767 345,359
Jul-25 7,740 7,758 7,636 7,638 7,716 7,704 -12 154 1,284
Aug-25 7,738 7,744 7,632 7,632 7,704 7,692 -12 62 184
Sep-25 7,698 7,736 7,610 7,626 7,666 7,680 14 1,125 3,262
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322