Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Grains Report 10/16/2024
DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons – Oct 15
WA_GR101
Washington, DC Tue Oct 15, 2024 USDA Market News
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT. NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS,
COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING OCT 10, 2024
— METRIC TONS —
————————————————————————-
CURRENT PREVIOUS
———– WEEK ENDING ———- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN 10/10/2024 10/03/2024 10/12/2023 TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 122 0 0 4,920 643
CORN 430,323 947,963 466,604 4,718,541 3,964,295
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 192 0
MIXED 0 0 0 0 24
OATS 0 0 100 148 3,794
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 80,585 2,860 77,515 413,815 381,372
SOYBEANS 1,575,467 1,625,183 2,110,057 5,130,420 5,503,750
SUNFLOWER 0 0 216 0 2,421
WHEAT 371,004 363,460 356,042 8,983,115 6,754,567
Total 2,457,501 2,939,466 3,010,534 19,251,151 16,610,866
————————————————————————-
CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA
This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 88 82 86 86
Cotton Harvested 34 26 31 30
Corn Mature 94 87 93 89
Corn Harvested 47 30 42 39
Soybeans Dropping Leaves 95 90 96 92
Soybeans Harvsted 67 47 57 51
Sorghum Mature 89 80 89 87
Sorghum Harvsted 53 43 50 50
Peanuts Harvested 30 19 38 41
Sugarbeets Harvested 42 23 42 46
Sunflowers Harvested 14 4 10 16
Rice Harvested 91 86 86 86
Winter Wheat Planted 64 51 65 66
Winter Wheat Emerged 35 25 36 38
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 11 23 32 29 5
Cotton Last Week 14 21 36 26 3
Cotton Last Year 23 20 27 25 5
Corn This Week 4 8 24 49 15
Corn Last Week 5 8 23 49 15
Corn Last Year 6 12 29 43 10
Sorghum This Week 9 15 32 37 7
Sorghum Last Week 9 15 31 37 8
Sorghum Last Year 11 16 31 33 9
Peanuts This Week 2 9 36 46 7
Peanuts Last Week 2 10 38 46 4
Peanuts Last Year 3 11 35 46 5
Pastures and Ranges This Week 21 28 29 19 3
Pastures and Ranges Last Week 20 26 29 20 5
Pastures and Ranges Last Year 16 21 30 28 5
WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower yesterday on follow through selling from speculators. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 588, 598, and 611 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 579, 571, and 566 December, with resistance at 592, 608, and 623 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 611, 604, and 595 December, and resistance is at 632, 646, and 655 December.
RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower and gave back the gains of Monday. Trends are still mixed on the daily charts. The USDA reports released on Friday showed no changes to US supply and demand results. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest should be wrapping up this week for most producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1489, 1475, and 1468 November and resistance is at 1524, 1532, and 1540 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Oats were a little higher. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1.62306 million tons of US Corn and unknown destinations bought 332,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 401, 397, and 387 December, and resistance is at 409, 413, and 420 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 357, 349, and 341 December, and resistance is at 382, 394, and 397 December
SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country and in response to the USDA reports released on Friday morning. Soybean Oil closed higher. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 175,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 972, 961, and 948 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 307.00, 300.00, and 294.00 December, and resistance is at 316.00, 320.00, and 327.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4140, 4070, and 4020 December, with resistance at 4330, 4430, and 4530 December.
Alerts History
• 15 Oct 2024 11:00:00 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYBEAN CRUSH 177.320 MILLION BUSHELS – NOPA
• 15 Oct 2024 11:00:00 AM – U.S. SEPTEMBER SOYOIL STOCKS 1.066 BILLION LBS – NOPA
NOPA September US soybean crush up sharply to 177.320 mln bushels – Reuters News
15 Oct 2024 11:00:33 AM
Open in LSEG Workspace
CHICAGO, Oct 15 (Reuters) – The U.S. soybean crush topped all trade estimates in September in a strong rebound from a near-three-year low the previous month, while soyoil stocks fell to the lowest point in almost a decade, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Tuesday.
NOPA members, which account for around 95% of soybeans processed in the United States, crushed 177.320 million bushels of the oilseed last month, a record amount for September. That was up 12.2% from the 158.008 million bushels crushed in August and up 7.2% from the September 2023 crush of 165.456 million bushels, which was the previous record for the month.
The crush exceeded all trade estimates and was well above the average estimate of 170.331 million bushels, based on a Reuters survey of 10 analysts. Estimates ranged from 164.000 million to 177.000 million bushels, with a median of 170.400 million bushels.
Analysts had expected the September crush to rebound from a 35-month low in August, when more processing plants than expected idled facilities for seasonal pre-harvest repairs and maintenance.
The crush is expected to surge in coming months as a record-large U.S. soybean harvest floods the market.
Soyoil stocks among NOPA members as of Sept. 30 dropped for a sixth straight month to 1.066 billion pounds, the tightest end-of-month supply since November 2014. The stocks were down 6.3% from the 1.138 billion pounds on hand at the end of August and 3.8% below year-ago stocks of 1.108 billion pounds.
Analysts, on average, had expected stocks to decline to 1.083 billion pounds, according to estimates from seven analysts.
Soyoil stocks estimates ranged from 865 million to 1.200 billion lbs, with a median of 1.100 billion lbs.
PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher yesterday on strength in the outside markets. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was lower on weakness in Chicago as the harvest is active but starting to wind down. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 596.00, 588.00, and 572.00 November, with resistance at 611.00, 627.00, and 633.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4310, 4360, and 4420 January.
DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-15 Palm-Oil Exports Up 14% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Kimberley Kao
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-15 period are estimated to have risen 14% on month to 753,102 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Tuesday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct. 1-15 Sept. 1-15
RBD Palm Olein 147,385 144,440
RBD Palm Oil 79,064 91,093
RBD Palm Stearin 54,525 58,838
Crude Palm Oil 237,940 150,600
Total* 753,102 660,767
*Palm-oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average below normal.
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1072.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1032.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1007.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1077.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1070.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1060.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1037.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 1012.50 +17.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1075.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 915.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,430.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 374.00 +08.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.289)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 16
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 156,184 lots, or 6.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,959 3,959 3,907 3,935 3,952 3,933 -19 3,706 8,536
Jan-25 3,983 3,983 3,937 3,969 3,996 3,961 -35 137,265 188,997
Mar-25 3,982 3,982 3,944 3,968 3,989 3,961 -28 5,614 31,306
May-25 4,015 4,021 3,988 4,010 4,016 4,005 -11 7,595 26,711
Jul-25 4,024 4,034 4,003 4,024 4,031 4,019 -12 1,079 5,417
Sep-25 4,043 4,052 4,020 4,037 4,048 4,035 -13 925 5,461
Corn
Turnover: 725,922 lots, or 16.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,194 2,194 2,175 2,183 2,197 2,182 -15 109,794 158,974
Jan-25 2,220 2,220 2,203 2,210 2,223 2,209 -14 529,861 689,740
Mar-25 2,223 2,225 2,212 2,219 2,225 2,218 -7 46,129 251,181
May-25 2,276 2,276 2,262 2,270 2,276 2,267 -9 26,505 111,856
Jul-25 2,293 2,293 2,280 2,289 2,293 2,285 -8 12,342 69,603
Sep-25 2,308 2,308 2,296 2,302 2,308 2,300 -8 1,291 6,370
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,554,740 lots, or 45.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,981 2,999 2,951 2,993 2,997 2,980 -17 55,429 127,320
Dec-24 3,003 3,028 2,981 3,022 3,015 3,010 -5 19,268 183,413
Jan-25 2,989 3,015 2,968 3,009 2,997 2,998 1 1,077,843 1,521,055
Mar-25 2,922 2,933 2,895 2,918 2,918 2,918 0 6,904 138,310
May-25 2,790 2,807 2,773 2,796 2,795 2,794 -1 336,596 1,323,743
Jul-25 2,786 2,804 2,772 2,792 2,791 2,791 0 15,494 132,668
Aug-25 2,868 2,882 2,853 2,873 2,874 2,870 -4 2,806 71,513
Sep-25 2,865 2,880 2,850 2,871 2,872 2,866 -6 40,400 157,737
Palm Oil
Turnover: 829,484 lots, or 73.46 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,832 9,032 8,832 8,972 8,874 8,962 88 6,599 4,568
Dec-24 8,780 9,012 8,780 8,950 8,836 8,936 100 5,349 5,516
Jan-25 8,748 8,968 8,738 8,902 8,788 8,880 92 752,289 511,725
Feb-25 8,680 8,880 8,680 8,818 8,724 8,772 48 128 343
Mar-25 8,590 8,804 8,590 8,740 8,648 8,722 74 311 3,216
Apr-25 8,528 8,716 8,526 8,646 8,590 8,626 36 79 393
May-25 8,436 8,626 8,430 8,564 8,468 8,554 86 63,792 139,779
Jun-25 8,368 8,514 8,362 8,442 8,328 8,448 120 36 168
Jul-25 8,244 8,372 8,244 8,330 8,230 8,318 88 63 236
Aug-25 8,212 8,260 8,212 8,250 8,180 8,234 54 7 53
Sep-25 8,024 8,210 8,024 8,150 8,062 8,130 68 831 2,109
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 535,760 lots, or 43.84 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,994 8,148 7,978 8,110 8,006 8,086 80 10,873 17,541
Dec-24 8,150 8,286 8,140 8,252 8,162 8,232 70 1,998 9,194
Jan-25 8,150 8,304 8,150 8,272 8,178 8,248 70 434,923 691,164
Mar-25 8,014 8,118 7,994 8,084 8,038 8,068 30 180 4,466
May-25 7,780 7,914 7,780 7,880 7,822 7,868 46 86,865 336,337
Jul-25 7,656 7,746 7,656 7,724 7,680 7,716 36 130 1,227
Aug-25 7,650 7,726 7,650 7,718 7,674 7,704 30 38 162
Sep-25 7,610 7,716 7,608 7,684 7,642 7,666 24 753 3,089
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.