Grains Report 10/15/2024

DJ Conab Releases First Estimates for 2024/25 Brazilian Crop — Market Talk
0957 ET – Brazilian crop agency Conab says it expects total grain production at 322.4 million tons, which is up 8.3% from last year’s figures, or nearly 25 million tons. Corn production is expected at 119.7 million tons, and soybeans are expected to be 166.1 million tons–both up from last year’s figures. Conab is also forecasting higher grain exports, particularly for soybeans. That’s because the amount China is expected to buy is forecast to rise, says the agency. CBOT grains are lower, with most-active corn down 0.6%, soybeans off 1.1%, and wheat dropping 0.9%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 15
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct 16, 2024 50 Sep 26, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 16, 2024 1 Sep 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed lower yesterday in response to the USDA reports and on follow through selling from Friday. The dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. USDA cut yield and production and demand in the reports on Friday and ending stocks were a little lower. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have been declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 1`20,000 tons of US SRW.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 598, 611, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 590, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 608, 623, and 633 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down. Support is at 624, 611, and 604 December, and resistance is at 646, 655, and 693 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher, and trends are mixed on the daily charts. The USDA reports released on Friday showed no changes to US supply and demand results. Lower Asian prices are still reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down. The harvest should be wrapping up this week for most producers.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1506, 1495, and 1489 November and resistance is at 1539, 1540, and 1556 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest and in response to the USDA reports released on Friday morning. USDA increased yields, production, and ending stocks more than expected by the trade. Yield reports have been mixed, with many now complaining about the dry weather hurting yield potential. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week. Most producers have concentrated on the Soybeans harvest and are turning attention to Corn with Soybeans mostly in the bin for a lot of them. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down. Support is at 409, 401, and 397 December, and resistance is at 420, 424, and 428 September. Trends in Oats are mixed to down. Support is at 357, 349, and 341 December, and resistance is at 382, 394, and 397 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Oil were lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country and in response to the USDA reports released on Friday morning. Brazil has planted 8% of the planned area to Soybeans so far. USDA estimated Soybean yields and production above trade estimates. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. Many had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Farmers have focused on Soybeans ha rest but now are almost done and are switching to Corn. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains have appeared and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News: China bought 131,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down. Support is at 996, 972, and 961 November, and resistance is at 1012, 1025, and 1039 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 313.00, 307.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 320.00, 327.00, and 332.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4180, 4140, and 4070 December, with resistance at 4330, 4430, and 4530 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday on weakness in the outside markets. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was a little higher despite weakness in Chicago as the harvest is active but starting to wind down. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 606.00, 596.00, and 588.00 November, with resistance at 627.00, 633.00, and 638.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4200, 4140, and 4070 January, with resistance at 4300, 4360, and 4420 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1050.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1015.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1070.50 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1020.00 -17.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 995.00 -12.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 905.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,400.00 -50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 366.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.308)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 121,845 lots, or 4.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,883 3,975 3,883 3,947 3,959 3,952 -7 6,089 10,011
Jan-25 3,992 4,014 3,980 3,983 3,982 3,996 14 103,022 183,458
Mar-25 3,983 4,000 3,976 3,979 3,971 3,989 18 5,345 29,926
May-25 4,005 4,023 4,004 4,016 4,004 4,016 12 6,195 24,703
Jul-25 4,028 4,037 4,025 4,032 4,017 4,031 14 567 5,107
Sep-25 4,038 4,053 4,038 4,047 4,034 4,048 14 627 5,170
Corn
Turnover: 518,611 lots, or 11.53 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,201 2,203 2,194 2,196 2,201 2,197 -4 83,730 187,062
Jan-25 2,223 2,229 2,218 2,222 2,226 2,223 -3 376,956 679,726
Mar-25 2,225 2,230 2,219 2,226 2,226 2,225 -1 30,397 239,600
May-25 2,280 2,281 2,270 2,277 2,277 2,276 -1 16,239 109,095
Jul-25 2,295 2,298 2,286 2,295 2,294 2,293 -1 9,875 68,684
Sep-25 2,308 2,313 2,303 2,310 2,311 2,308 -3 1,414 6,307
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,573,762 lots, or 46.52 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,987 3,022 2,969 2,979 2,989 2,997 8 63,598 147,418
Dec-24 2,994 3,038 2,991 3,004 2,991 3,015 24 20,405 175,906
Jan-25 2,983 3,019 2,977 2,992 2,983 2,997 14 1,138,013 1,532,553
Mar-25 2,918 2,941 2,901 2,917 2,911 2,918 7 11,263 137,135
May-25 2,787 2,812 2,782 2,791 2,785 2,795 10 273,681 1,295,880
Jul-25 2,780 2,806 2,780 2,788 2,781 2,791 10 14,029 131,446
Aug-25 2,869 2,890 2,860 2,867 2,865 2,874 9 4,148 70,522
Sep-25 2,861 2,893 2,857 2,866 2,864 2,872 8 48,625 153,080
Palm Oil
Turnover: 795,165 lots, or 69.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,910 8,932 8,798 8,822 8,986 8,874 -112 11,589 5,594
Dec-24 8,922 8,922 8,758 8,776 8,962 8,836 -126 5,048 4,802
Jan-25 8,844 8,876 8,714 8,724 8,920 8,788 -132 718,291 491,462
Feb-25 8,762 8,788 8,644 8,646 8,834 8,724 -110 215 318
Mar-25 8,672 8,710 8,566 8,578 8,738 8,648 -90 206 3,172
Apr-25 8,572 8,622 8,496 8,512 8,644 8,590 -54 83 363
May-25 8,510 8,546 8,394 8,416 8,564 8,468 -96 59,133 139,907
Jun-25 8,388 8,412 8,290 8,368 8,440 8,328 -112 21 162
Jul-25 8,278 8,298 8,180 8,224 8,326 8,230 -96 19 224
Aug-25 8,220 8,220 8,094 8,126 8,264 8,180 -84 10 52
Sep-25 8,100 8,144 8,000 8,024 8,166 8,062 -104 550 1,826
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 572,178 lots, or 4.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,016 8,056 7,914 7,980 8,074 8,006 -68 18,316 22,500
Dec-24 8,190 8,220 8,092 8,128 8,240 8,162 -78 2,163 9,211
Jan-25 8,208 8,244 8,110 8,144 8,270 8,178 -92 463,895 672,910
Mar-25 8,066 8,104 7,982 7,988 8,132 8,038 -94 494 4,510
May-25 7,840 7,892 7,766 7,778 7,912 7,822 -90 85,712 335,640
Jul-25 7,698 7,730 7,620 7,624 7,758 7,680 -78 142 1,192
Aug-25 7,686 7,708 7,618 7,660 7,772 7,674 -98 66 149
Sep-25 7,684 7,690 7,598 7,604 7,754 7,642 -112 1,390 3,015
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

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