
Jack Scoville
Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322
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Weekly Ag Markets Update – 10/14/2024
Wheat: All three markets closed lower on Friday in response to the USDA reports, but higher last week as the dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. USDA cut yield and production and demand in the reports on Friday and ending stocks were a little lower. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. World prices were steady despite weather problems here in the US and around the globe as demand apparently has improved from being less over the last week. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. The Russin Ag minister asked farmers to pray for better conditions earlier this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Weekly Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Chicago Hard Red Winter Wheat Futures
Weekly Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat Futures
Corn: Corn and Oats closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest and in response to the USDA reports. USDA increased yields, production, and ending stocks more than expected by the trade. Yield reports have been mixed, with many now complaining about the dry weather hurting yield potential. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week and beyond. Ideas are that the production data seen last month will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Weekly Corn Futures
Weekly Oats Futures
Soybeans and Soybean Meal: Soybeans and the products were a little lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country and in response to the UDA reports. USDA estimated Soybean yields and production above trade estimates. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy last week with the country returning to work. May had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains should start today and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Weekly Chicago Soybeans Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Meal Futures
Rice: Rice closed lower and trends are turning down on the daily charts in response to the USDA reports released on Friday. USDA made no significant changes to the supply side or the demand side of the ledger and so no one was offered a reason to buy. Lower Asian prices are reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down.
Weekly Chicago Rice Futures
Palm Oil and Vegetable Oils: Palm Oil was lower last week after trading in a wide range on weakness in the outside markets. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was a little lower last week along with weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Weekly Malaysian Palm Oil Futures
Weekly Chicago Soybean Oil Futures
Weekly Canola Futures
Cotton: Cotton was a little lower last week and trends are turning down on the daily charts as continued stressful weather was seen in the south but export demand was less. USDA cut production and demand in its reports released on Friday and ending stocks were increased a little bit to 4.10 million bales. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Weekly US Cotton Futures
Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice and Citrus: FCOJ closed a little higher as Hurricane Milton moved from the Gulf of Mexico and moved from west to east across the state as a category 3 hurricane. Further buying was seen on Friday after USDA cut Florida oranges production to 15 million boxes, from 20 million last year. Growing conditions appear to be generally good for now. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Weekly FCOJ Futures
Coffee: Both markets were lower last week as rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas but as crop losses are still a good possibility in Brazil and Vietnam. NY December failed at resistance areas on the daily charts but still closed higher. There are now forecasts for some rains starting today in Brazil as the rainy season is now set to begin after very dry conditions until now. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.
Weekly New York Arabica Coffee Futures
Weekly London Robusta Coffee Futures
Sugar: New York and London closed a little lower last week on better rains starting early last week and on overall weakness in world petroleum prices based on reduced fears of the problems in the Mideast. A cold front has moved north from southern Brazil last week that has spread north and brought much needed rains to Sugar areas. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial, and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Weekly New York World Raw Sugar Futures
Weekly London White Sugar Futures
Cocoa: New York and London closed higher last week and short term trends turned up on the daily charts. The rally is not expected to go very far as the harvest has started in West Africa. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Sources told wire services that the rains seen last week were beneficial for crop development. Surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Weekly New York Cocoa Futures
Weekly London Cocoa Futures

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322