Grains Report 10/10/2024

DJ USDA Report: Recap for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand
The following table of analysts’ estimates is provided as a service to The Wall Street Journal subscribers in conjunction with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-and-demand report scheduled for release at noon ET on Friday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,158 15,018-15,258 15,186 15,342
Corn Yield 183.4 181.6-184.5 183.6 177.3
Harvested Acres 82.6 82.0-82.7 82.7 86.5
Soybean Production 4,572 4,462-4,660 4,586 4,165
Soybean Yield 53.0 51.7-54.0 53.2 50.6
Harvested Acres 86.3 85.8-86.3 86.3 82.4
****
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,940 1,835-2,100 2,057
Soybeans 542 486-660 550
Wheat 821 788-843 828
****
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 308.7 307.0-309.6 309.6
Soybeans 112.2 111.1-113.0 112.3
Wheat 265.0 262.0-266.0 265.3
2024-25
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 306.9 304.0-309.0 308.4
Soybeans 134.3 132.4-136.0 134.6
Wheat 256.4 254.5-258.8 257.2

DJ US Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Oct 10
For the week ended Oct 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The
marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing
year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.
For soymeal and soyoil, “this year” is the 2024-2025 marketing
year, which began Oct 1, while “Last year” is 2023-24.
Source: USDA
wk’s net change total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 433.6 5.5 12048.6 10090.5 3662.7 27.0
hrw 105.3 0.0 2797.5 1812.5 925.4 0.0
srw 91.8 5.5 1944.4 2352.7 596.6 27.0
hrs 86.8 0.0 3945.3 3519.9 1162.9 0.0
white 149.8 0.0 3154.3 2124.9 912.1 0.0
durum 0.0 0.0 207.0 280.4 65.6 0.0
corn 1222.1 0.0 17649.7 15295.0 13184.4 112.0
soybeans 1264.3 -8.4 20138.1 19424.2 16566.7 1.0
soymeal 252.5-a 1.3 4917.6 4579.4 4874.2 1.3
soyoil 4.1-b 0.0 79.6 17.2 73.3 0.0
upland cotton 89.6 13.2 5144.5 5823.8 3983.5 411.3
pima cotton 9.1 0.0 169.6 81.8 105.2 0.0
sorghum 5.5 -1.0 668.8 2296.3 424.8 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 19.7 16.1 16.6 0.0
rice 61.0 0.0 1025.7 826.1 536.3 0.0
-a: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-3, which resulted
in a net increase of 165.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes
86.8 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-2024
-b: Includes new sales activity for Oct 1-3, which resulted
in a net increase of 3.8 thousand metric tons. Also includes
0.3 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from
2023-24.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Oct 10
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN OIL October Oct 11, 2024 246 Sep 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: All three markets closed higher yesterday as the dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. World prices were steady despite weather problems here in the US and around the globe as demand apparently has improved from being less over the last week. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were higher and are now about $230.00/ton as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. The Russin Ag minister asked farmers to pray for better conditions earlier this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 617, 658, and 677 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 591, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 623, 633, and 672 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 632, 624, and 611 December, and resistance is at 653, 693, and 704 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in range trading as everyone waits for the USDA reports to be released on Friday. Lower Asian prices are reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice last week. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1503, 1489, and 1479 November and resistance is at 1530, 1540, and 1557 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was fractionally higher and Oats closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Yield reports have been mixed, with many now complaining about the dry weather hurting yield potential. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week and beyond. Ideas are that the production data seen last month will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 418, 415, and 409 December, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 373, 357, and 349 December, and resistance is at 397, 404, and 410 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans closed a little higher and the products were a little lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy yesterday with the country returning to work. May had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains should start today and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1012, 1002, and 996 November, and resistance is at 1039, 1055, and 1070 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 313.00 December, and resistance is at 328.00, 332.00, and 339.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4240, 4190, and 4140 December, with resistance at 4400, 4530, and 4560 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on reports of higher inventories from MPOB. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was a little lower yesterday along with weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 606.00, 596.00, and 588.00 November, with resistance at 620.00, 633.00, and 638.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4200, 4040, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4500 December.

DJ Malaysia’s September Palm Oil Exports 1.54M Tons; Up 0.9%, MPOB Says
Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 0.9% on month at 1.54 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September August Change
On Month
Crude Palm Oil Output 1,821,933 1,893,859 Dn 3.8%
Palm Oil Exports 1,542,805 1,528,632 Up 0.93%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 126,446 87,167 Up 45.06%
Palm Oil Imports 5,482 9,970 Dn 45.01%
Closing Stocks 2,013,837 1,883,328 Up 6.93%
Crude Palm Oil 1,057,111 953,145 Up 10.91%
Processed Palm Oil 956,726 930,183 Up 2.85%

DJ Malaysia Oct. 1-10 Palm Oil Exports Rose 19% on Month, AmSpec Says
By Kimberley Kao
Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the Oct. 1-10 period are estimated up 19% on month at 490,582 metric tons, cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia said Thursday.
The following are the major items in the AmSpec estimate:
(All figures in metric tons)
Oct. 1-10 Sept. 1-10
RBD Palm Olein 91,255 95,930
RBD Palm Oil 58,154 59,600
RBD Palm Stearin 29,605 24,843
Crude Palm Oil 168,535 130,260
Total* 490,582 412,771
*Palm oil product volumes don’t add up to total as some products aren’t included.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 10
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1067.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1015.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 992.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1072.50 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1060.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1020.00 +02.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 997.50 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 900.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 360.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.289)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 10
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 122,551 lots, or 4.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,969 3,979 3,954 3,961 3,991 3,967 -24 6,102 14,268
Jan-25 4,000 4,005 3,976 3,979 4,011 3,988 -23 104,104 174,813
Mar-25 3,988 3,990 3,961 3,974 3,985 3,976 -9 6,042 27,532
May-25 4,020 4,039 4,005 4,021 4,029 4,023 -6 4,468 19,971
Jul-25 4,030 4,052 4,023 4,036 4,046 4,039 -7 1,136 4,642
Sep-25 4,057 4,066 4,037 4,053 4,057 4,053 -4 699 4,463
Corn
Turnover: 861,085 lots, or 19.06 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,175 2,200 2,175 2,184 2,181 2,190 9 233,914 261,488
Jan-25 2,210 2,227 2,203 2,210 2,207 2,215 8 515,817 627,200
Mar-25 2,217 2,228 2,206 2,212 2,211 2,218 7 38,722 215,816
May-25 2,269 2,282 2,260 2,270 2,264 2,274 10 53,721 112,402
Jul-25 2,286 2,300 2,280 2,289 2,283 2,291 8 16,313 61,155
Sep-25 2,303 2,317 2,298 2,303 2,302 2,310 8 2,598 5,500
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,716,932 lots, or 51.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,003 3,049 2,983 3,016 3,031 3,019 -12 69,456 185,916
Dec-24 3,027 3,048 2,994 3,031 3,047 3,032 -15 21,848 148,832
Jan-25 3,023 3,040 2,984 3,022 3,042 3,021 -21 1,221,122 1,488,599
Mar-25 2,950 2,973 2,926 2,957 2,981 2,956 -25 17,213 129,149
May-25 2,827 2,844 2,802 2,831 2,847 2,830 -17 314,976 1,252,484
Jul-25 2,819 2,835 2,800 2,825 2,838 2,822 -16 26,887 118,454
Aug-25 2,910 2,926 2,894 2,916 2,931 2,916 -15 5,238 54,117
Sep-25 2,906 2,921 2,887 2,911 2,922 2,909 -13 40,192 100,472
Palm Oil
Turnover: 837,582 lots, or 72.67 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,694 8,868 8,608 8,720 8,762 8,740 -22 15,779 11,474
Dec-24 8,690 8,856 8,608 8,720 8,752 8,748 -4 4,405 3,611
Jan-25 8,664 8,818 8,566 8,690 8,710 8,704 -6 744,727 492,221
Feb-25 8,568 8,726 8,494 8,616 8,616 8,622 6 165 280
Mar-25 8,476 8,638 8,414 8,538 8,536 8,550 14 481 3,123
Apr-25 8,366 8,538 8,330 8,450 8,426 8,428 2 146 453
May-25 8,296 8,454 8,236 8,372 8,334 8,358 24 71,435 133,291
Jun-25 8,182 8,324 8,182 8,294 8,242 8,278 36 19 155
Jul-25 8,076 8,226 8,064 8,200 8,120 8,170 50 21 200
Aug-25 8,004 8,150 7,992 8,140 8,034 8,058 24 17 42
Sep-25 7,974 8,092 7,918 8,012 7,990 8,022 32 387 761
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 622,326 lots, or 50.66 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,940 8,110 7,904 8,022 8,028 8,032 4 10,385 27,769
Dec-24 8,130 8,262 8,056 8,190 8,172 8,178 6 3,286 8,383
Jan-25 8,138 8,286 8,082 8,214 8,198 8,202 4 506,664 654,058
Mar-25 7,982 8,122 7,934 8,066 8,046 8,044 -2 476 4,794
May-25 7,758 7,908 7,712 7,848 7,822 7,836 14 100,583 305,737
Jul-25 7,606 7,760 7,584 7,702 7,680 7,696 16 165 1,126
Aug-25 7,640 7,770 7,610 7,718 7,698 7,710 12 47 168
Sep-25 7,660 7,756 7,598 7,702 7,696 7,662 -34 720 1,468
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322