Grains Report 10/09/2024

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK-The following are analysts’ estimates for 2024 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2024 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2023
Corn Production 15,158 15,018-15,258 15,186 15,342
Corn Yield 183.4 181.6-184.5 183.6 177.3
Harvested Acres 82.6 82.0-82.7 82.7 86.5
Soybean Production 4,572 4,462-4,660 4,586 4,165
Soybean Yield 53.0 51.7-54.0 53.2 50.6
Harvested Acres 86.3 85.8-86.3 86.3 82.4
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres
AgriSompo North America 15,150 183.2 82.7 4,565 52.9 86.3
AgriSource 15,202 183.8 82.7 4,564 52.9 86.3
Allendale 15,186 183.6 4,586 53.2
Doane 15,129 182.9 82.7 4,640 53.8 86.3
Grain Cycles 15,128 182.9 82.7 4,563 52.9 86.3
Linn Group 15,111 183.3 82.5 4,488 52.0 86.3
Sid Love Consulting 15,088 184.0 82.0 4,590 54.0 85.8
Marex 15,217 184.0 4,660 54.0
Midland Research 15,102 182.6 82.7 4,560 52.9 86.3
Midwest Market Solutions 15,253 184.5 82.7 4,579 53.1 86.2
Northstar 15,097 183.0 82.5 4,548 52.7 86.3
Ocean State Research 15,237 184.0 82.7 4,626 53.6 86.3
Prime Ag 15,258 184.5 82.7 4,574 53.0 86.3
RJO Brien 15,219 184.0 4,577 53.1
Risk Mgmt Commods 15,200 183.8 82.7 4,574 53.0 86.3
StoneX Group 15,222 184.0 82.7 4,613 53.5 86.3
US Commodities 15,114 183.2 82.5 4,531 52.5 86.3
VantageRM 15,018 181.6 82.6 4,575 53.0 86.3
Zaner Ag Hedge 15,076 182.3 82.7 4,462 51.7 86.3

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2024-25, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S. Stockpiles (millions)
2024-25
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 1,940 1,835-2,100 2,057
Soybeans 542 486-660 550
Wheat 821 788-843 828
2024-25
Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 1,997 510 843
AgriSource 2,005 527 825
Allendale 2,002 553 808
Doane 1,940 585 830
Grain Cycles 1,933 533 788
Linn Group 1,875 498 835
Sid Love Consulting 1,908 547 817
Marex 2,100 610 818
Midland Research 1,922 526 809
Midwest Market Solutions 1,894 536 816
Northstar 1,940 510 830
Ocean State Research 2,059 592 828
Prime Ag 2,065 540 817
RJO Brien 1,860 543 819
Risk Mgmt Commods 1,935 535 815
StoneX Group 1,862 660 831
US Commodities 1,859 500 805
VantageRM 1,835 516 828
Zaner Ag Hedge 1,872 486 835

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates — Survey
NEW YORK–The following are analysts’ estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2023-24 and 2024-25, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 308.7 307.0-309.6 309.6
Soybeans 112.2 111.1-113.0 112.3
Wheat 265.0 262.0-266.0 265.3
2024-25
Average Range USDA Sept.
Corn 306.9 304.0-309.0 308.4
Soybeans 134.3 132.4-136.0 134.6
Wheat 256.4 254.5-258.8 257.2
2023-24 2024-25
Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat
AgriSompo North America 309.6 112.3 265.3 307.5 134.5 256.5
Allendale 309.0 112.4 265.0 307.5 134.6 256.8
Linn Group 304.0 133.0
Marex 307.0 113.0 262.0 307.0 136.0 255.0
Midwest Market Solution 309.6 112.0 265.0 309.0 134.8 255.0
Northstar 309.0 112.0 266.0 306.0 134.0 257.0
Ocean State Research 309.6 112.3 265.3 309.0 135.5 257.0
Prime Ag 309.0 134.0 257.0
Risk Mgmt Commods 308.0 112.0 265.3 305.0 134.0 254.5
StoneX Group 308.1 111.1 265.3 305.5 135.2 258.8
US Commodities 308.5 112.0 265.0 307.5 134.0 257.0
Zaner Ag Hedge 308.9 112.4 265.3 305.6 132.4 255.7

DJ USDA Monthly Grain Inspections: Exported by Rail – Oct 9
MS_GR210
Minneapolis, MN WED OCT 9, 2024 USDA MARKET NEWS
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT BY RAIL TO CANADA AND MEXICO
REPORT FOR MONTH ENDING SEPTEMBER 2024
————————————————————————
Sep-24 Aug-24 Year to Date
CANADA Rail Cars Metric Tons Metric Tons Metric Tons
BARLEY 0 0 0 0
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 0
CORN WHITE 0 0 0 0
CORN YELLOW 0 0 0 0
RYE 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
OATS 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 0
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 0 1,500
WHEAT HRS 109 10,877 0 11,277
WHEAT HRW 2 200 0 800
WHEAT SRW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT SWW 0 0 0 0
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
MEXICO
BARLEY 0 0 0 200
BARLEY MALTING 0 0 0 4,992
CANOLA 192 19,161 4,890 53,990
CORN WHITE 34 3,393 1,796 94,703
CORN YELLOW 10,063 1,004,196 1,200,887 R 9,686,912
CORN MIXED 0 0 0 0
FLAXSEED 0 0 0 0
MIXED GRAINS 0 0 0 499
OATS 0 0 0 899
SORGHUM 0 0 0 9,779
WHT SORGHUM 0 0 0 0
SOYBEANS 1,772 176,831 290,989 2,408,063
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0
WHEAT DU 0 0 0 11,177
WHEAT HDWH 0 0 300 2,795
WHEAT HRS 869 86,720 95,104 643,472
WHEAT HRW 880 87,819 149,988 1,080,272
WHEAT SRW 576 57,484 78,336 541,982
WHEAT SWW 98 9,779 8,087 22,957
WHEAT MIXED 0 0 0 0
WHEAT UNCL 0 0 0 0
————————————————————————-
COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED
AND
WEIGHED THROUGH GIPSA’S AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
R=Revised (YTD Revision Entails Past Month Revisions)
Year to Date is January to current or end of year
Wheat
DU=Durum
HDWH= Hard White
HRS=Hard Red Spring
HRW=Hard Red Winter
SRW=Soft Red Winter
SWW=Soft White
UNCL=Unclassed
Source: USDA, FGIS
USDA MARKET NEWS SERVICE
Niki Davila 503-535-5001 Nicole.davila@usda.gov
https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/ms_gr210.txt
http://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/livestock-poultry-grain

WHEAT
General Comments: Chicago and Minneapolis closed higher yesterday, but Kansas City closed lower, as the dry weather outlook continues for Russia and the US. At least two Wheat producing regions in Russia have declared a state of emergency for Wheat producers due to a lack of rain and little to no rain has been a problem with Winter Wheat planting in the US. World prices were steady despite weather problems here in the US and around the globe as demand apparently has improved from being less over the last week. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were lower to start the week as production estimates remain lower and two regions have now declared a farming emergency due to the hot and dry weather. The Russin Ag minister asked farmers to pray for better conditions yesterday. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up. Support is at 583, 576, and 564 December, with resistance at 617, 658, and 677 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up. Support is at 591, 579, and 571 December, with resistance at 623, 633, and 672 December. Trends in Minneapolis are up. Support is at 632, 624, and 611 December, and resistance is at 653, 693, and 704 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher in range trading as everyone waits for the USDA reports to be released on Friday. Lower Asian prices are reported after India opened up exports for non Basmati White Rice. Brazil prices remain strong and well above US prices. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1503, 1489, and 1479 November and resistance is at 1530, 1540, and 1557 November.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower with active harvest conditions in the Midwest. Yield reports have been mixed, with many now complaining about the dry weather hurting yield potential. Corn is often coming to the elevator at levels at 10% to 12% moisture instead of the desired 14% moisture and it has made a difference in yields overall. It remains dry in the Midwest, and there are now forecasts for dry conditions and cooler temperatures in the Midwest for the coming week and beyond. Ideas are that the production data seen last month will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 126,000 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up. Support is at 418, 415, and 409 December, and resistance is at 434, 441, and 458 September. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 373, 357, and 349 December, and resistance is at 397, 404, and 410 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday as Brazilian farmers are planting what is expected to be a very big crop in central and northern areas of the country. Traders were also disappointed that China did not announce new economic support measures for its economy yesterday with the country returning to work. May had expected some important new moves o support the Chinese economy by the government but were disappointed. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest recently has hurt production ideas due to ideas of small and very dry beans in the pods. Soybeans ae often harvested at moisture levels below 10% this year. Dry weather will last all week and into next week. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Rains should start today and will stick around as it looks like the rainy season is now underway. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina.
Overnight News:
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down. Support is at 1002, 996, and 985 November, and resistance is at 1039, 1055, and 1070 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down. Support is at 320.00, 316.00, and 313.00 December, and resistance is at 328.00, 332.00, and 339.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4310, 4190, and 4140 December, with resistance at 4530, 4560, and 4670 December.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weakness in the outside markets. The production could be reduced by flooding that can keep workers from the fields. Demand has held together despite India increasing import taxes on Palm Oil and China is now back from a holiday week to help demand ideas hold together. Canola was lower yesterday along with weakness in Chicago and Malaysia. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada, and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada, but so far demand has held together well.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 612.00, 606.00, and 596.00 November, with resistance at 638.00, 648.00, and 664.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down. Support is at 4200, 4040, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4350, 4410, and 4500 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Oct 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1065.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1060.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1055.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1012.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 985.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1070.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1065.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Dec 1060.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1017.50 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 990.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1070.00 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 902.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,400.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 357.00 +01.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2845)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Oct 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 128,996 lots, or 5.17 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,000 4,005 3,973 3,973 4,026 3,991 -35 5,983 15,219
Jan-25 4,012 4,022 4,000 4,002 4,051 4,011 -40 107,030 170,261
Mar-25 3,995 3,995 3,976 3,980 4,013 3,985 -28 8,104 26,508
May-25 4,033 4,039 4,021 4,024 4,066 4,029 -37 5,967 19,263
Jul-25 4,052 4,054 4,039 4,041 4,067 4,046 -21 1,225 4,445
Sep-25 4,060 4,063 4,050 4,056 4,081 4,057 -24 687 4,299
Corn
Turnover: 781,748 lots, or 17.21 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,180 2,191 2,171 2,184 2,193 2,181 -12 326,123 294,671
Jan-25 2,205 2,218 2,198 2,206 2,215 2,207 -8 367,791 598,025
Mar-25 2,210 2,220 2,205 2,213 2,217 2,211 -6 35,017 208,065
May-25 2,260 2,274 2,257 2,269 2,272 2,264 -8 34,521 108,546
Jul-25 2,280 2,292 2,276 2,285 2,286 2,283 -3 16,208 55,690
Sep-25 2,303 2,310 2,294 2,305 2,308 2,302 -6 2,088 4,889
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,039,385 lots, or 61.03 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,997 3,061 2,996 3,018 3,030 3,031 1 122,901 204,006
Dec-24 3,015 3,078 3,014 3,032 3,056 3,047 -9 24,666 137,946
Jan-25 3,019 3,070 3,012 3,026 3,052 3,042 -10 1,343,404 1,455,978
Mar-25 2,956 3,002 2,956 2,963 2,989 2,981 -8 15,151 123,428
May-25 2,830 2,862 2,826 2,829 2,861 2,847 -14 454,946 1,236,300
Jul-25 2,829 2,854 2,818 2,822 2,856 2,838 -18 23,868 118,166
Aug-25 2,927 2,943 2,912 2,914 2,950 2,931 -19 5,988 51,310
Sep-25 2,918 2,935 2,905 2,908 2,937 2,922 -15 48,461 88,731
Palm Oil
Turnover: 738,307 lots, or 6.41 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 – – – 8,898 8,898 8,898 0 0 830
Nov-24 8,818 8,836 8,678 8,734 8,916 8,762 -154 15,286 11,246
Dec-24 8,818 8,828 8,676 8,730 8,910 8,752 -158 4,017 2,973
Jan-25 8,770 8,784 8,628 8,690 8,872 8,710 -162 652,962 496,507
Feb-25 8,614 8,678 8,538 8,594 8,760 8,616 -144 217 310
Mar-25 8,574 8,592 8,436 8,512 8,664 8,536 -128 768 3,128
Apr-25 8,544 8,544 8,336 8,420 8,544 8,426 -118 153 436
May-25 8,356 8,402 8,234 8,324 8,458 8,334 -124 64,302 129,998
Jun-25 8,356 8,356 8,140 8,216 8,356 8,242 -114 62 157
Jul-25 8,108 8,182 8,050 8,130 8,254 8,120 -134 33 200
Aug-25 8,028 8,056 7,984 8,054 8,120 8,034 -86 23 39
Sep-25 8,022 8,052 7,908 7,976 8,064 7,990 -74 484 740
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 561,498 lots, or 45.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,010 8,092 7,942 7,986 8,114 8,028 -86 12,839 28,632
Dec-24 8,164 8,226 8,094 8,140 8,276 8,172 -104 3,252 8,283
Jan-25 8,196 8,260 8,118 8,168 8,292 8,198 -94 449,719 647,762
Mar-25 8,044 8,100 7,974 8,020 8,164 8,046 -118 338 4,749
May-25 7,828 7,872 7,732 7,788 7,916 7,822 -94 94,217 300,334
Jul-25 7,686 7,724 7,610 7,656 7,784 7,680 -104 148 1,123
Aug-25 7,702 7,752 7,642 7,696 7,774 7,698 -76 45 186
Sep-25 7,672 7,744 7,622 7,668 7,762 7,696 -66 940 1,383
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322