Softs Report 10/08/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday in range trading as continued stressful weather was seen in the south but export demand was less. There are still ideas and reports of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China. However, Chinese demand could start to improve as the government there is injecting a lot of money into the economy in an effort to get the country moving again. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. The Delta has had somewhat better growing conditions but overall the entire crop has seen some stress.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

DJ U.S. Aug Cotton Exports-Oct 8
In kilograms and in running 480-pound bales. Source. U.S. Department
Commerce.
(*)NOTE: Year ago figures reflect data reported at that time.
Data includes Exports and Re-Exports.
——- In Kilograms ——-
Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 24 Aug 23
Upland, under 1 inch 1,812,508 2,790,546 3,729,604 7,446,022
1 to 1 1/8 inch 34,866,369 45,308,646 46,848,979 59,205,336
upland 1 1/8 and over 5,941,123 2,829,184 4,746,492 3,704,248
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 106,532,860 117,560,843 124,745,372 155,841,427
All cotton 149,152,860 168,489,219 180,070,447 226,197,033
——- In Running 480-Pound Bales ——-
Aug 24 Jul 24 Jun 24 Aug 23
Upland, under 1 inch 8,325 12,817 17,130 34,199
1 to 1 1/8 inch 160,140 208,101 215,176 271,928
upland 1 1/8 and over 27,287 12,994 21,800 17,013
Amer pima, over 1 1/8 inc 489,301 539,953 572,951 715,774
All cotton 685,053 773,865 827,057 1,038,914

This Week Last Week Last Year Average
Cotton Bolls Opening 82 73 80 80
Cotton Harvested 26 20 23 22
Very Poor Poor Fair Good Excellent
Cotton This Week 14 21 36 26 3
Cotton Last Week 17 20 32 27 4
Cotton Last Year 21 20 27 27 5

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed sharply higher as yet another system has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is already a category 4 hurricane. Significant winds and rains are likely for parts of the Florida peninsula this week from the Gulf storm. Growing conditions appear to be generally good for now. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil has been hot and dry. Rain is expected this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 459.00, and 453.00 November, with resistance at a 488.00, 497.00, and 506.00 November

COFFEE
General Comments: Both markets were sharply lower yesterday as rain remains in the forecast for Brazil crop areas. There are now forecasts for some rains starting today in Brazil as the rainy season is now set to begin after very dry conditions until now. Losses are still possible in Brazil and also Vietnam from previous bad weather. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries and is likely to succeed. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is still dry there.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 242.00, 236.00, and 230.00 December, and resistance is at 252.00, 258.00 and 260.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4750, 4670, and 4540 November, with resistance at 5100, 5280, and 5410 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday on better rains starting today in Brazil and despite strength in world petroleum prices based on the current problems in the Middle East. A cold front is expected in southern Brazil this week that should spread north and bring much needed rains to Sugar areas. Dry conditions seen generally in Brazil continued to support both markets overall. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 2210, 2100, and 2020 March and resistance is at 2370, 2400, and 2460 March. Trends in London are down. Support is at 564.00, 552.00, and 541.00 December, with resistance at 590.00, 593.00, and 602.00 December.

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday and both markets are still acting heavy as the harvest of the next crop is under way. Relief was felt as the EU moved to delay implementation of its deforestation regulations for third world countries. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. Sources told wire services that the rains seen last week were beneficial for crop development. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 6820, 6600, and 6350 December, with resistance at 7470, 7570, and 7710 December. Trends in London are mixed to down. Support is at 4870, 4800, and 4740 December, with resistance at 5360, 5450, and 5730 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322