Bill Moore
William Moore's market views are centered around his many relationships with Agricultural producers. His weekly newsletter, AGMASTER, provides a blend of fundamental & technical information used to make prudent hedging decisions. Contact Mr. Moore at (312) 264-4337
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AgMaster Report 10/08/2024
DEC CORN
Bearish Headwinds abound – forcing a small correction in Dec Corn’s impressive 50 cent rally since it cratered in late August! Heavy harvest pressure expedited by very clear weather, a rainy forecast for N Brazil, the Oct WASDE this Friday at 11am – rumored to be bearish due to record yield forecasts from the field & China’s lack of additional economic stimuli have all collaborated to pressure corn in the past week! However, exports remain stout with 3 Flash Sales Mon & today – plus robust Mon Inspections & last Thur export sales! Corn is 30% in (avg-29)! Harvest pressure normally abates at the half-way point of harvest!
NOV BEANS
Nov Beans very impressive $1.00 rally (960-1060) from mid-August was mostly catalyzed by the ongoing drought in N Brazil – as the mkt built in a substantial weather premium! But now rains are forecast for the next 2 weeks in Brazil & part of the WP is being extracted! As well, the Oct USDA Supply & Demand is due out Friday & is expected to ratchet up yields from their Sept offering! Beans are 47% in (avg-34)! However, exports remain quite active – with 1.44mmt reported for both Mon’s inspections & last Thur’s export sales! Also, we’ve had 3 flash sales in the past 2 days! Once the harvest pressure is off, sometime after the half-way point, the mkt will refocus on the production issues that countries in the Black Sea, S America & Australia face! Finally, we expect the 4-year low price level will continue to draw solid exports globally!
DEC WHT
Russia’s total grain crop was estimated by their gov’t at 132 mmt -down from last years 148 mmt! A 2nd attack on a Ukrainian Grain Ship by Russia in the last 2 days adds a geopolitical risk premium to the mkt! The mkt bottomed out in late August – rallied 90 cents & now has corrected in sympathy with the harvest pressure on corn/beans! Much like corn & beans, 4 yr lows seemed to be enough to entice impressive export demand! The old commodity cliche LOW PRICES CURE LOW PRCES – once again rings true!
DEC CAT
In a stunning contra-seasonal move, Dec Cat has rallied $15 since Labor Day despite higher weights/production & the steady waning of the grilling-season demand! The answer to this seeming conundrum is from the Macro Sector – The Fed in a surprise move 2 weeks ago – lowered IR’s .5% (not the expected .25%) & this injected new-found domestic demand into the mkt place – & with the lower US Dollar accompanying the IR decline, beef exports have picked up markedly! The mkt is extremely overbought now but the cash mkt is firm!
DEC HOGS
Dec Hogs settled at 4 ½ month highs on Mon 7 & the rally since Mid-August is pushing $14.00! Much like its “sister mkt” Dec Cat, this contract has been the beneficiary of increased Domestic & Export Demand in the wake of the Fed’s easing monetary policy! Which has replaced “cook-out demand” lost after Labor Day W/E! Likewise over-bought, Dec hogs is overdue for a correction – especially with the uncertainty of the Presidential election dead-ahead!
Questions? Ask Bill Moore today at 312-264-4337