Grains Report 09/27/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 26
For the week ended Sep 19, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 158.9 10.0 11171.2 9165.3 3676.7 21.5
hrw 35.6 0.0 2635.0 1628.4 844.5 0.0
srw 27.1 10.0 1810.7 2020.7 559.6 21.5
hrs 23.4 0.0 3716.4 3260.1 1250.4 0.0
white 44.1 0.0 2803.3 1995.7 957.8 0.0
durum 28.7 0.0 206.0 260.5 64.6 0.0
corn 535.1 0.0 14743.7 12568.5 12508.1 112.0
soybeans 1574.7 0.0 17567.3 17643.6 16288.8 8.4
soymeal -7.9 279.9 13877.8 12889.3 1031.0 3960.6
soyoil 0.9 3.5 281.3 132.0 24.8 24.4
upland cotton 87.8 0.0 4959.0 5540.5 4000.2 358.5
pima cotton 10.8 0.0 151.0 74.6 99.6 0.0
sorghum -1.0 0.0 615.3 2054.6 551.8 0.0
barley -2.1 0.0 19.7 16.1 17.4 0.0
rice 55.3 0.0 929.0 706.8 539.6 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was lower yesterday after trading higher early in the day.. World prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 576, 564, and 561 December, with resistance at 599, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 559, 539, and 527 December, with resistance at 591, 604, and 617 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 602, 595, and 580 December, and resistance is at 627, 638, and 646 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed lower yesterday on follow through selling. A hurricane is expected later this week in the southern US but should miss rice areas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are down. Support is at 1479, 1468, and 1466 November and resistance is at 1513, 1530, and 1557 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower after trading higher early in the day as long liquidation hit the pit. It remains dry in the Midwest, although there are forecasts for some showers and cooler temperatures in the Midwest this weekend. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is under way. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 409, 401, and 397 December, and resistance is at 419, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 374, 357, and 348 December, and resistance is at 387, 404, and 410 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower yesterday after trading higher early in the day. Warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods although there have been spotty showers recently and more are forecast for this weekend. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is should remain dry after some showers today but temperatures have turned cooler. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: South Korea bought 20,000 tons of US Soybean Oil
Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 1031, 1018, and 1002 November, and resistance is at 1064, 1087, and 1097 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 321.00, 314.00, and 312.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4180, 4060, and 4020 October, with resistance at 4480, 4520, and 4800 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower on weakness in the outside markets after making new contract highs yesterday. Canola was lower yesterday as long liquidation hit the pit. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 588.00, 572.00, and 565.00 November, with resistance at 619.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 4080, 4020, and 3950 December, with resistance at 4200, 4260, and 4320 December.

DJ Canadian Oilseeds Monthly Crush – Sep 26
Canadian oilseeds monthly crush – August 2024
WINNIPEG–Crushing statistics of major oilseeds in Canada
for the month of August 2024, reported by Statistics Canada are
as follows:
Figures are in metric tons.
Year Ago 2024/25 2023/24
Canola Aug 2024 Aug 2023 To Date To Date
Seed crushed 850,529 829,490 850,529 829,490
Oil produced 363,165 347,606 363,165 347,606
Meal produced 494,028 491,813 494,028 491,813
Soybeans
Seed crushed 70,309 123,651 70,309 123,651
Oil produced 12,695 23,362 12,695 23,362
Meal produced 55,592 96,568 55,592 96,568
Source: MarketsFarm (Phil Franz-Warkentin, news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 27
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1050.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1035.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1035.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1000.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 975.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1055.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1040.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1040.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 1005.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 980.00 -15.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1072.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 897.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,210.00 -40.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 346.00 -02.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.122)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 27
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 163,582 lots, or .69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,265 4,296 4,216 4,218 4,228 4,265 37 10,178 13,534
Jan-25 4,199 4,233 4,188 4,195 4,154 4,208 54 141,517 143,939
Mar-25 4,120 4,150 4,119 4,126 4,089 4,134 45 5,237 21,635
May-25 4,154 4,197 4,154 4,173 4,131 4,177 46 4,501 11,994
Jul-25 4,119 4,161 4,119 4,141 4,102 4,140 38 1,121 3,576
Sep-25 4,113 4,154 4,113 4,138 4,103 4,138 35 1,028 2,913
Corn
Turnover: 1,200,654 lots, or 26.23 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,152 2,186 2,149 2,179 2,135 2,171 36 679,022 421,993
Jan-25 2,159 2,206 2,159 2,198 2,162 2,192 30 397,525 565,526
Mar-25 2,182 2,215 2,176 2,211 2,170 2,203 33 56,315 181,975
May-25 2,230 2,262 2,226 2,254 2,225 2,251 26 44,303 94,916
Jul-25 2,243 2,274 2,241 2,270 2,238 2,264 26 21,978 41,874
Sep-25 2,264 2,286 2,252 2,280 2,249 2,275 26 1,511 2,414
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,068,688 lots, or 63.04 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,090 3,101 3,045 3,066 3,086 3,070 -16 106,099 311,791
Dec-24 3,115 3,132 3,068 3,095 3,101 3,093 -8 18,845 121,147
Jan-25 3,127 3,130 3,061 3,089 3,097 3,089 -8 1,496,655 1,283,304
Mar-25 3,022 3,033 2,981 3,005 3,010 3,002 -8 27,181 116,848
May-25 2,914 2,918 2,867 2,885 2,898 2,887 -11 373,498 1,077,120
Jul-25 2,902 2,910 2,864 2,874 2,891 2,881 -10 12,374 104,703
Aug-25 2,983 2,994 2,953 2,959 2,976 2,971 -5 2,174 46,678
Sep-25 2,974 2,976 2,933 2,936 2,960 2,947 -13 31,862 54,102
Palm Oil
Turnover: 927,031 lots, or 79.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 8,554 8,656 8,500 8,580 8,510 8,566 56 466 974
Nov-24 8,646 8,716 8,550 8,676 8,568 8,638 70 19,130 13,930
Dec-24 8,634 8,696 8,534 8,656 8,536 8,630 94 1,067 633
Jan-25 8,640 8,672 8,496 8,616 8,508 8,594 86 846,326 541,373
Feb-25 8,564 8,586 8,434 8,522 8,446 8,540 94 141 358
Mar-25 8,440 8,540 8,370 8,466 8,400 8,462 62 377 3,533
Apr-25 8,440 8,450 8,304 8,382 8,336 8,398 62 207 417
May-25 8,322 8,382 8,202 8,274 8,244 8,290 46 59,129 123,425
Jun-25 8,242 8,276 8,144 8,186 8,152 8,216 64 41 164
Jul-25 8,152 8,178 8,026 8,062 8,098 8,110 12 34 166
Aug-25 7,964 8,012 7,964 7,972 7,986 7,974 -12 6 34
Sep-25 7,988 7,988 7,850 7,936 7,900 7,910 10 107 254
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 662,953 lots, or 53.65 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 8,040 8,102 7,920 8,006 7,996 8,002 6 16,692 29,950
Dec-24 8,170 8,222 8,048 8,118 8,116 8,118 2 3,854 7,275
Jan-25 8,212 8,248 8,068 8,142 8,124 8,150 26 539,722 641,200
Mar-25 8,074 8,100 7,934 7,982 7,980 8,012 32 335 4,785
May-25 7,840 7,894 7,724 7,774 7,786 7,794 8 101,634 271,842
Jul-25 7,724 7,754 7,596 7,634 7,660 7,674 14 240 1,113
Aug-25 7,762 7,762 7,646 7,686 7,698 7,712 14 60 203
Sep-25 7,738 7,738 7,608 7,658 7,682 7,670 -12 416 738
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322