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Jack Scoville

Jack Scoville is an often quoted market analyst in the grain and soft commodities sectors. You will find his commentary throughout the Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Dow Jones, Bloomberg, and Barron's publications. Contact Mr. Scoville at (312) 264-4322

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Softs Report 09/24/2024

By On September 24, 2024 - 10:09 AM · In Market Commentaries, Morning Grains & Softs Report
COTTON
General Comments:  Cotton was mixed yesterday on continued stressful weather in the south.  There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year.  There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough.   The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect.  Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season.  Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are up.  Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.
      This Week   Last Week   Last Year   Average
Cotton Bolls Opening    63    54    62    60
Cotton Harvested  14    10    12    12
      Very Poor   Poor  Fair  Good  Excellent
Cotton This Week  14    19    30    32    5
Cotton Last Week  10    16    35    34    5
Cotton Last Year  20    22    28    25    5
FCOJ
General Comments:  FCOJ closed lower yesterday despite forecasts for a potential hurricane to hit Florida this weekend.  A new tropical system has formed off of the coast of Mexico and could become a category 2 or 3 storm when it hits the date later this week or this weekend.  It looks like mostly the northern half of the state will be affected.  A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true.  The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida.  The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease.  There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry.  Ideas are that demand has suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 468.00, 453.00, and 438.00 November, with resistance at a 491.00, 487.00, and 506.00 November
COFFEE
General Comments:  New York and London closed sharply higher yesterday as the dry Brazil and Vietnam weather patterns remained the main focus.  There were forecasts for increased precipitation for the dry fields of Brazil early this week.  More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential had been supporting futures in both markets.  Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling.  Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.  It is still dry there.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down.  Support is at 248.00, 246.00, and 242.00 December, and resistance is at 269.00, 272.00 and 278.00 December.  Trends in London are down.  Support is at 5010, 4910, and 4750 November, with resistance at 5370, 5480, and 5540 November.
SUGAR
General Comments:  New York and London closed mixed to mostly a little higher yesterday on more reports of burning crops in Brazil and on dry conditions seen generally in Brazil.  One company said it had lost 10% of its production in the fires.  Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil.  Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane.  They are pushing the governments to allow exports but the governments have not agreed to allow any exports.  Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are up.  Support is at 2200, 2100, and 2050 March and resistance is at 2340, 2400, and 2460 March.  Trends in London are up.  Support is at 575.00, 553.00, and 545.00 December, with resistance at 604.00, 610.00, and 616.00 December.
COCOA
General Comments:  New York closed higher yesterday and London closed a little lower on ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved.  Futures held to a trading range on the daily charts.  Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast.  Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa.  The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7940, 8240, and 8550 December.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale purchase of any securities or futures.
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