Softs Report 09/23/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher again yesterday last week in the wake of the USDA production reports that showed less production overall and continued stressful weather in the south. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. There have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are up. Support is at 71.50, 70.20, and 69.30 December, with resistance of 75.80, 77.70 and 79.40 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COTTON NO. 2 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open Interest is 277,899
: Positions :
: 26,845 73,410 72,157 80,455 100,777 82,734 18,093 262,191 264,437: 15,708 13,462
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,521) :
: 3,771 -12,643 5,011 -5,894 17,324 1,683 -462 4,571 9,229: 950 -3,708
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.7 26.4 26.0 29.0 36.3 29.8 6.5 94.3 95.2: 5.7 4.8
: Total Traders: 316 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 86 99 104 65 63 46 21 260 228:
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FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed higher Friday and higher for the week on new buying from speculators and commercials. No tropical storms appeared to be threatening in the forecasts for this or next week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry. Ideas are that demand has suffered recently with the move to extremely high prices.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 472.00, 468.00, and 453.00 November, with resistance at a 497.00, 506.00, and 512.00 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
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FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE – ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701 Open Interest is 12,837 :
: Positions :
: 1,334 7,569 798 0 159 3,755 336 41 957 502 3,168 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: 4 -352 -16 0 13 -48 -10 -36 -253 -25 9 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.4 59.0 6.2 0.0 1.2 29.3 2.6 0.3 7.5 3.9 24.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 57 :
: 7 7 4 0 . 22 . . 11 7 10 :
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COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed sharply lower on Friday and lower for the week as the dry Brazil weather patterns remained the main focus. There were forecasts for increased precipitation for the dry fields of Brazil early this week. More reports of dry weather that could be hurting production potential had been supporting futures in both markets. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down. Support is at 246.00, 242.00, and 236.00 December, and resistance is at 263.00, 269.00 and 271.00 December. Trends in London are down. Support is at 4910, 4750, and 4710 November, with resistance at 5210, 5370, and 5480 November.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COFFEE C – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731 Open Interest is 256,288
: Positions :
: 56,497 12,867 68,162 57,924 157,238 64,736 12,448 247,319 250,715: 8,969 5,574
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 16,936) :
: 3,483 -1,063 6,609 3,302 8,707 2,697 2,499 16,091 16,753: 846 184
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 22.0 5.0 26.6 22.6 61.4 25.3 4.9 96.5 97.8: 3.5 2.2
: Total Traders: 391 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131 68 106 89 122 51 20 314 280:
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SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher last week on more reports of burning crops in Brazil. One company said it had lost 10% of its production in the fires. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up. Support is at 2200, 2100, and 2050 March and resistance is at 2340, 2400, and 2460 March. Trends in London are up. Support is at 575.00, 553.00, and 545.00 December, with resistance at 592.00, 598.00, and 604.00 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SUGAR NO. 11 – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 885,845
: Positions :
: 80,054 84,304 183,605 341,749 520,774 210,483 34,029 815,891 822,712: 69,954 63,133
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: -105,333) :
: 7,659 -10,769 -46,100 -65,677 -35,619 -1,081 -8,826 -105,199 -101,314: -134 -4,019
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.0 9.5 20.7 38.6 58.8 23.8 3.8 92.1 92.9: 7.9 7.1
: Total Traders: 229 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 57 48 73 73 71 40 22 203 181:
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COCOA
General Comments: New York closed mixed to higher on Friday and London closed a little lower on ideas of tight supplies available to the market now as production for the next crop looks to be improved. Futures held to a trading range on the daily charts. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently wetter weather in Ivory Coast. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7940, 8240, and 8550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
COCOA – ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 195,612
: Positions :
: 27,693 11,277 72,609 54,114 93,507 30,808 13,496 185,223 190,889: 10,389 4,723
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,671) :
: 1,784 -394 3,973 2,307 6,658 2,184 -298 10,248 9,939: -577 -268
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.2 5.8 37.1 27.7 47.8 15.7 6.9 94.7 97.6: 5.3 2.4
: Total Traders: 179 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 65 37 66 34 36 32 14 160 126:
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Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322