Grains Report 09/23/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was unchanged to lower last week, with Chicago and KC Winter Wheat a little lower and Minneapolis Spring Wheat unchanged. World prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe, but the weekly export sales report showed poor demand and negative demand for HRW. USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 564, 561, and 544 December, with resistance at 583, 599, and 603 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to down. Support is at 559, 549, and 527 December, with resistance at 576, 588, and 604 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 602, 595, and 580 December, and resistance is at 618, 627, and 638 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 418,413
: Positions :
: 52,850 117,029 113,451 82,414 100,241 137,363 50,096 386,077 380,816: 32,336 37,597
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: -3,808) :
: -2,434 -7,679 1,024 -5,093 661 496 2,130 -6,008 -3,865: 2,200 57
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.6 28.0 27.1 19.7 24.0 32.8 12.0 92.3 91.0: 7.7 9.0
: Total Traders: 371 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 112 119 95 105 45 30 295 295:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 245,346
: Positions :
: 37,015 59,712 48,492 51,784 86,245 89,052 30,039 226,343 224,487: 19,003 20,859
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 1,586) :
: -989 -3,180 4,115 356 1,954 -2,777 -809 704 2,079: 882 -493
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.1 24.3 19.8 21.1 35.2 36.3 12.2 92.3 91.5: 7.7 8.5
: Total Traders: 260 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 55 57 79 86 37 19 198 191:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 73,464 :
: Positions :
: 36,219 24,888 3,255 357 202 9,644 26,186 6,503 2,779 1,650 3,333 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: -4,004 1,182 149 -121 -7 1,501 -3,664 -85 -18 -165 -893 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 49.3 33.9 4.4 0.5 0.3 13.1 35.6 8.9 3.8 2.2 4.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 110 :
: 50 38 6 . 4 11 19 10 9 4 8 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana that could have damaged production. A hurricane came on shore a week ago in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed to up. Support is at 1539, 1539, and 1479 November and resistance is at 1562, 1575, and 1586 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,860 :
: Positions :
: 5,702 5,683 64 61 0 602 1,950 0 1,266 89 811 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: -373 390 5 -163 0 37 -335 -1 -280 -19 -14 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 57.8 57.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 6.1 19.8 0.0 12.8 0.9 8.2 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 65 :
: 23 13 . . 0 6 10 0 13 . 9 :
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CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed higher last week but near the weekly lows and Oats closed slightly higher. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports released a week ago and it remains warm and dry in the Midwest, although there are forecasts for some showers in the Midwest today. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for warm and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 348, 341, and 330 December, and resistance is at 374, 385, and 404 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,797,042
: Positions :
: 168,713 301,119 536,650 500,354 568,654 414,289 161,161 1,620,007 1,567,584: 177,036 229,458
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 84,356) :
: -4,351 15,795 55,146 10,705 7,819 13,030 9,795 74,530 88,554: 9,827 -4,198
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.4 16.8 29.9 27.8 31.6 23.1 9.0 90.1 87.2: 9.9 12.8
: Total Traders: 799 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 138 149 185 335 347 52 34 629 629:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,446 :
: Positions :
: 675 1,892 287 250 29 446 135 0 327 129 100 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: -111 379 82 0 -6 208 -416 0 -291 -16 -38 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 19.6 54.9 8.3 7.3 0.8 12.9 3.9 0.0 9.5 3.7 2.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 21 :
: 6 7 . . . . . 0 . . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower again Friday, but Soybean Oil was higher, as warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas of small beans in the pods. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 165,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up. Support is at 4060, 4020, and 3870 October, with resistance at 4300, 4400, and 4520 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,100,046
: Positions :
: 46,344 172,355 344,070 454,913 395,559 205,736 109,571 1,051,063 1,021,555: 48,984 78,491
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 25,011) :
: 4,817 -4,456 19,854 -1,730 8,339 -593 2,270 22,347 26,007: 2,663 -997
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 4.2 15.7 31.3 41.4 36.0 18.7 10.0 95.5 92.9: 4.5 7.1
: Total Traders: 578 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 91 175 177 204 219 50 30 467 488:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 605,650
: Positions :
: 81,128 132,025 135,170 207,312 267,428 150,488 43,293 574,097 577,916: 31,553 27,734
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 16,285) :
: 5,993 7,249 11,757 -1,780 -4,911 484 3,181 16,455 17,276: -170 -991
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 21.8 22.3 34.2 44.2 24.8 7.1 94.8 95.4: 5.2 4.6
: Total Traders: 345 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 76 87 105 110 94 42 27 290 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 574,487
: Positions :
: 76,976 72,044 129,148 180,835 313,788 136,993 29,383 523,952 544,362: 50,535 30,125
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,168) :
: 4,294 632 1,849 6,564 5,910 -3,977 -90 8,731 8,301: 437 867
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.4 12.5 22.5 31.5 54.6 23.8 5.1 91.2 94.8: 8.8 5.2
: Total Traders: 343 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 53 84 97 124 119 44 24 286 271:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil started the week lower and closed higher higher on ideas of weakening production and reports of improving export demand despite news that India had increased Palm Oil import taxes. It was higher today on ideas of better export demand. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola was higher all last week in response to StatsCan production data and the weather in Brazil which has been very dry in central and northern areas. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 572.00, 565.00, and 538.00 November, with resistance at 606.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3860, 3820, and 3770 December, with resistance at 3970, 4000, and 4020 December.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 42,274 :
: Positions :
: 33,234 13,810 480 15,962 540 840 235 500 285 4,832 6,375 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: 1,240 150 0 450 -30 0 200 -130 -160 280 -335 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 78.6 32.7 1.1 37.8 1.3 2.0 0.6 1.2 0.7 11.4 15.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 36 :
: 11 11 . 6 . . . . . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 17, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 317,275 :
: Positions :
: 263,899 102,045 3,314 15,497 1,685 4,067 146,355 17,923 6,821 12,965 18,191 :
: Changes from: September 10, 2024 :
: 4,702 1,254 -1,706 -528 -429 151 3,772 1,764 376 -1,031 417 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 83.2 32.2 1.0 4.9 0.5 1.3 46.1 5.6 2.1 4.1 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 362 :
: 67 70 4 7 6 12 91 22 51 100 58 :
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Midwest Weather Forecast Showers and storms. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 23
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1020.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1010.00 — Unquoted – –
Dec 1000.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 975.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 955.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1025.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Nov 1015.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Dec 1005.00 — Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 980.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 960.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1045.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 870.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,100.00 +30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 347.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 116,862 lots, or 4.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,214 4,219 4,180 4,190 4,225 4,198 -27 5,049 16,092
Jan-25 4,150 4,150 4,113 4,134 4,159 4,131 -28 99,473 167,536
Mar-25 4,102 4,102 4,066 4,075 4,106 4,077 -29 7,468 21,270
May-25 4,143 4,143 4,105 4,110 4,149 4,116 -33 4,041 12,027
Jul-25 4,115 4,115 4,078 4,083 4,119 4,091 -28 443 3,132
Sep-25 4,110 4,110 4,071 4,079 4,114 4,085 -29 388 1,663
Corn
Turnover: 1,066,209 lots, or 22.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,158 2,158 2,105 2,138 2,164 2,134 -30 681,944 573,315
Jan-25 2,175 2,175 2,131 2,159 2,179 2,156 -23 310,588 475,963
Mar-25 2,179 2,181 2,143 2,163 2,185 2,165 -20 35,827 165,962
May-25 2,240 2,240 2,202 2,222 2,247 2,221 -26 23,448 84,638
Jul-25 2,253 2,253 2,216 2,237 2,257 2,236 -21 13,538 42,118
Sep-25 2,261 2,261 2,223 2,248 2,265 2,245 -20 864 1,179
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,702,018 lots, or 51.10 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,069 3,089 3,045 3,072 3,081 3,068 -13 71,897 353,690
Dec-24 3,058 3,079 3,034 3,066 3,071 3,057 -14 13,877 116,375
Jan-25 3,050 3,071 3,023 3,056 3,058 3,045 -13 1,215,930 1,324,514
Mar-25 2,961 2,973 2,932 2,958 2,975 2,953 -22 16,370 111,037
May-25 2,862 2,865 2,826 2,851 2,873 2,847 -26 345,892 1,065,569
Jul-25 2,864 2,864 2,828 2,852 2,874 2,846 -28 16,557 101,107
Aug-25 2,955 2,956 2,915 2,941 2,968 2,934 -34 4,023 46,345
Sep-25 2,945 2,945 2,898 2,929 2,952 2,921 -31 17,472 29,304
Palm Oil
Turnover: 813,292 lots, or 66.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 8,252 8,372 8,222 8,320 8,244 8,280 36 1,028 2,397
Nov-24 8,246 8,354 8,196 8,278 8,232 8,278 46 13,032 11,019
Dec-24 8,206 8,328 8,176 8,266 8,198 8,244 46 805 660
Jan-25 8,168 8,296 8,136 8,228 8,152 8,210 58 745,654 551,138
Feb-25 8,132 8,250 8,112 8,190 8,102 8,172 70 54 335
Mar-25 8,102 8,234 8,080 8,180 8,090 8,136 46 416 4,069
Apr-25 8,058 8,184 8,054 8,134 8,026 8,094 68 101 345
May-25 7,990 8,124 7,952 8,062 7,980 8,046 66 51,847 117,884
Jun-25 7,914 8,024 7,896 8,020 7,908 7,952 44 51 186
Jul-25 7,852 7,956 7,834 7,902 7,862 7,906 44 66 171
Aug-25 7,790 7,888 7,770 7,828 7,792 7,850 58 18 38
Sep-25 7,756 7,806 7,710 7,728 7,728 7,756 28 220 149
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 564,038 lots, or 44.24 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,778 7,818 7,722 7,776 7,786 7,774 -12 13,840 28,046
Dec-24 7,876 7,920 7,822 7,878 7,870 7,876 6 2,627 6,574
Jan-25 7,878 7,938 7,836 7,890 7,872 7,892 20 459,640 652,119
Mar-25 7,774 7,824 7,730 7,778 7,770 7,776 6 462 4,731
May-25 7,580 7,638 7,532 7,576 7,572 7,590 18 86,963 243,510
Jul-25 7,468 7,526 7,436 7,484 7,482 7,498 16 288 1,099
Aug-25 7,510 7,592 7,488 7,534 7,462 7,526 64 35 259
Sep-25 7,530 7,598 7,486 7,528 7,486 7,544 58 183 307
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322