Grains Report 09/20/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was unchanged to lower yesterday on what appeared to be follow through long liquidation from the rally last week as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 570, 561, and 544 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 566, 559, and 539 December, with resistance at 607, 618, and 637 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 612, 602, and 595 December, and resistance is at 630, 638, and 640 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana that could have damaged production. A hurricane came on shore on Thursday in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports, but the market traded higher anyway.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1548, 1551, and 1562 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats closed higher yesterday. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports last week and it remains warm and dry in the Midwest. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for warm and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 348, 341, and 330 December, and resistance is at 374, 385, and 404 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher again yesterday as warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas o small beans in the pods. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 121,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3930, 3710, and 3650 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today on ideas of weakening production. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are mixed on the daily charts. Canola was higher again yesterday in response to the weather in Brazil which has been very dry in central and northern areas. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 538.00, 532.00, and 526.00 November, with resistance at 606.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3820, 3770, and 3760 December, with resistance at 3900, 3920, and 3960 December.
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 20
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1000.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1000.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 965.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 947.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1005.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 1005.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 970.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 952.50 +22.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1030.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 875.00 +25.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,070.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 347.00 +09.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.2)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 20
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 103,259 lots, or 4.29 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,238 4,240 4,212 4,224 4,239 4,225 -14 3,399 16,992
Jan-25 4,170 4,172 4,145 4,154 4,178 4,159 -19 92,384 169,662
Mar-25 4,129 4,129 4,097 4,102 4,127 4,106 -21 4,382 18,861
May-25 4,163 4,165 4,139 4,144 4,163 4,149 -14 2,098 10,272
Jul-25 4,130 4,130 4,110 4,116 4,129 4,119 -10 620 3,089
Sep-25 4,120 4,123 4,106 4,110 4,127 4,114 -13 376 1,426
Corn
Turnover: 802,274 lots, or 17.45 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,174 2,180 2,153 2,164 2,182 2,164 -18 522,499 558,017
Jan-25 2,185 2,193 2,170 2,178 2,196 2,179 -17 190,093 472,040
Mar-25 2,190 2,194 2,178 2,183 2,195 2,185 -10 37,086 163,476
May-25 2,244 2,254 2,238 2,244 2,251 2,247 -4 39,654 80,681
Jul-25 2,259 2,265 2,250 2,256 2,261 2,257 -4 12,572 41,142
Sep-25 2,271 2,273 2,262 2,265 2,269 2,265 -4 370 704
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,711,603 lots, or 51.78 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,099 3,103 3,061 3,086 3,113 3,081 -32 62,851 358,645
Dec-24 3,091 3,091 3,048 3,076 3,108 3,071 -37 13,852 116,347
Jan-25 3,074 3,080 3,034 3,065 3,096 3,058 -38 1,307,293 1,339,776
Mar-25 2,994 2,994 2,957 2,976 3,007 2,975 -32 16,534 111,992
May-25 2,889 2,890 2,860 2,875 2,895 2,873 -22 283,691 1,056,398
Jul-25 2,891 2,891 2,861 2,875 2,893 2,874 -19 15,041 101,576
Aug-25 2,985 2,985 2,958 2,970 2,987 2,968 -19 3,028 46,779
Sep-25 2,964 2,967 2,940 2,956 2,976 2,952 -24 9,313 23,973
Palm Oil
Turnover: 710,549 lots, or 57.87 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 8,262 8,290 8,198 8,278 8,140 8,244 104 1,194 2,943
Nov-24 8,232 8,282 8,184 8,256 8,140 8,232 92 9,418 11,006
Dec-24 8,172 8,240 8,156 8,232 8,074 8,198 124 666 642
Jan-25 8,124 8,200 8,106 8,180 8,062 8,152 90 654,592 551,792
Feb-25 8,018 8,150 8,018 8,150 8,018 8,102 84 70 331
Mar-25 8,100 8,128 8,038 8,126 7,992 8,090 98 327 3,937
Apr-25 7,924 8,080 7,924 8,078 7,924 8,026 102 66 328
May-25 7,946 8,034 7,918 8,006 7,898 7,980 82 44,040 115,105
Jun-25 7,870 7,952 7,850 7,952 7,820 7,908 88 38 172
Jul-25 7,808 7,892 7,808 7,886 7,752 7,862 110 27 149
Aug-25 7,754 7,824 7,754 7,824 7,688 7,792 104 6 25
Sep-25 7,672 7,780 7,650 7,760 7,658 7,728 70 105 85
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 558,424 lots, or 43.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,814 7,820 7,736 7,800 7,786 7,786 0 15,711 28,184
Dec-24 7,882 7,910 7,812 7,890 7,832 7,870 38 2,797 6,043
Jan-25 7,854 7,922 7,814 7,902 7,838 7,872 34 463,361 643,137
Mar-25 7,774 7,814 7,714 7,812 7,726 7,770 44 462 4,691
May-25 7,550 7,626 7,506 7,604 7,528 7,572 44 75,653 227,397
Jul-25 7,434 7,554 7,414 7,494 7,410 7,482 72 289 947
Aug-25 7,382 7,528 7,382 7,512 7,430 7,462 32 24 236
Sep-25 7,454 7,548 7,444 7,530 7,430 7,486 56 127 216
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322