Grains Report 09/19/2024

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals-Sep 19
For the week ended Sep 12, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.
The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1, and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk’s net chg total
in commitments commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr last yr this yr next yr
wheat 246.3 11.5 11012.3 8620.8 4228.3 11.5
hrw -3.9 0.0 2599.2 1516.4 964.4 0.0
srw 51.8 11.5 1783.5 1965.3 639.6 11.5
hrs 150.6 0.0 3693.0 3067.8 1431.0 0.0
white 38.3 0.0 2759.1 1812.2 1136.3 0.0
durum 9.5 0.0 177.4 259.0 57.0 0.0
corn 847.4 0.0 14208.6 11726.7 13077.1 112.0
soybeans 1748.1 8.4 15992.6 17022.6 15232.1 8.4
soymeal -2.9 283.0 13885.8 12906.1 1303.4 3680.7
soyoil 46.7 0.3 280.3 127.4 30.1 20.9
upland cotton 106.8 10.6 4871.2 5485.1 3991.9 358.5
pima cotton 14.0 0.0 140.2 58.9 95.8 0.0
sorghum 6.6 0.0 616.3 1996.7 553.7 0.0
barley 0.0 0.0 21.7 16.1 19.9 0.0
rice 81.1 0.0 873.6 678.8 543.7 0.0

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was unchanged to lower yesterday on what appeared to be follow through long liquidation from the rally last week as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 570, 561, and 544 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 566, 559, and 539 December, with resistance at 607, 618, and 637 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 612, 602, and 595 December, and resistance is at 630, 638, and 640 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher again yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana that could have damaged production. A hurricane came on shore on Thursday in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports, but the market traded higher anyway.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1548, 1551, and 1562 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats closed higher yesterday. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports last week and it remains warm and dry in the Midwest. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for warm and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 348, 341, and 330 December, and resistance is at 374, 385, and 404 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher again yesterday as warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas o small beans in the pods. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Central and northern Brazil has also been dry and reports indicate that soil moisture levels are at 30 year lows. Soils are in much better shape in southern Brazil and Argentina. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3930, 3710, and 3650 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher again today along with Chicago. Production reports indicate an increase in production at this time and disappearance has suffered with less demand from China. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher again yesterday in response to the weather in Brazil which has been very dry in central and northern areas. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up. Support is at 538.00, 532.00, and 526.00 November, with resistance at 606.00, 622.00, and 648.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3820, 3770, and 3760 December, with resistance at 3900, 3920, and 3960 December.7
Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sept 19
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 975.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 975.00 +12.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 945.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 925.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 980.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 980.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 950.00 +07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 930.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1010.00 +10.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 850.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,020.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 338.00 +03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.207)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 19
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 136,663 lots, or 5.71 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,248 4,254 4,227 4,235 4,293 4,239 -54 6,053 17,808
Jan-25 4,188 4,197 4,163 4,170 4,235 4,178 -57 120,941 164,248
Mar-25 4,145 4,145 4,118 4,121 4,166 4,127 -39 4,149 17,420
May-25 4,171 4,177 4,155 4,159 4,192 4,163 -29 2,951 9,347
Jul-25 4,144 4,144 4,123 4,128 4,151 4,129 -22 1,587 2,922
Sep-25 4,136 4,137 4,120 4,120 4,157 4,127 -30 982 1,284
Corn
Turnover: 693,606 lots, or 15.19 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,195 2,197 2,173 2,174 2,183 2,182 -1 453,933 559,550
Jan-25 2,210 2,210 2,187 2,188 2,195 2,196 1 176,271 463,120
Mar-25 2,208 2,208 2,186 2,186 2,191 2,195 4 30,934 159,157
May-25 2,262 2,262 2,243 2,245 2,244 2,251 7 17,285 77,581
Jul-25 2,267 2,269 2,254 2,256 2,258 2,261 3 14,828 40,378
Sep-25 2,277 2,277 2,263 2,269 2,269 2,269 0 355 463
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,890,847 lots, or 57.83 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,149 3,155 3,087 3,089 3,135 3,113 -22 97,213 358,424
Dec-24 3,144 3,146 3,078 3,078 3,131 3,108 -23 12,958 115,336
Jan-25 3,135 3,136 3,065 3,065 3,121 3,096 -25 1,392,790 1,341,345
Mar-25 3,018 3,035 2,980 2,983 3,012 3,007 -5 26,641 111,752
May-25 2,918 2,919 2,880 2,882 2,906 2,895 -11 312,993 1,059,454
Jul-25 2,910 2,913 2,878 2,881 2,902 2,893 -9 22,322 101,070
Aug-25 3,005 3,008 2,972 2,976 2,995 2,987 -8 6,714 46,928
Sep-25 3,009 3,009 2,955 2,961 2,995 2,976 -19 19,216 21,165
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,013,380 lots, or 81.61 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 8,042 8,266 8,042 8,262 7,966 8,140 174 5,131 3,309
Nov-24 8,030 8,256 8,030 8,252 7,956 8,140 184 13,792 11,156
Dec-24 8,016 8,226 8,016 8,226 7,950 8,074 124 651 808
Jan-25 7,960 8,180 7,952 8,166 7,882 8,062 180 928,960 541,912
Feb-25 7,942 8,134 7,942 8,122 7,840 8,018 178 92 321
Mar-25 7,914 8,098 7,902 8,088 7,840 7,992 152 422 3,878
Apr-25 7,790 8,040 7,790 8,032 7,790 7,924 134 96 329
May-25 7,810 7,994 7,804 7,978 7,746 7,898 152 63,949 112,385
Jun-25 7,762 7,910 7,762 7,906 7,702 7,820 118 78 157
Jul-25 7,694 7,848 7,694 7,832 7,628 7,752 124 73 154
Aug-25 7,660 7,770 7,648 7,770 7,592 7,688 96 16 24
Sep-25 7,622 7,736 7,598 7,726 7,534 7,658 124 120 47
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 660,110 lots, or 51.51 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,780 7,836 7,734 7,800 7,756 7,786 30 13,763 26,295
Dec-24 7,808 7,892 7,790 7,864 7,766 7,832 66 1,481 5,180
Jan-25 7,802 7,892 7,782 7,866 7,772 7,838 66 569,707 642,782
Mar-25 7,708 7,776 7,678 7,750 7,670 7,726 56 418 4,732
May-25 7,520 7,572 7,478 7,544 7,480 7,528 48 74,059 222,215
Jul-25 7,402 7,450 7,370 7,436 7,380 7,410 30 323 950
Aug-25 7,434 7,480 7,404 7,476 7,400 7,430 30 138 226
Sep-25 7,400 7,480 7,368 7,480 7,402 7,430 28 221 198
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322