Grains Report 09/18/2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed yesterday on what appeared to be long liquidation from the rally last week as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 570, 561, and 544 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 566, 559, and 539 December, with resistance at 607, 618, and 637 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 612, 602, and 595 December, and resistance is at 630, 638, and 640 December.

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed a little higher yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. A hurricane came on shore on Thursday in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports, but the market traded higher anyway.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1548, 1551, and 1562 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher and Oats closed lower yesterday. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports last week and it remains warm and dry in the Midwest. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for warm and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer to hurt kernel fill and ear weights.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 348, 341, and 330 December, and resistance is at 374, 385, and 404 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little higher yesterday as warm and dry weather in the Midwest now hurt production ideas due to ideas o small beans in the pods. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3930, 3710, and 3650 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was higher today along with Chicago. Production reports indicate an increase in production at this time and disappearance has suffered with less demand from China. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was higher again yesterday in response to the StatsCan production estimates. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 538.00, 532.00, and 526.00 November, with resistance at 583.00, 606.00, and 622.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are down. Support is at 3700, 3670, and 3640 December, with resistance at 3830, 386w0, and 3900 December.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 962.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 962.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 937.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 927.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 967.50 +22.50 Unquoted – –
Nov/Dec 967.50 +32.50 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 942.50 +27.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 932.50 +25.00 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 1000.00 +20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 845.00 +15.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 4,000.00 +50.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Oct 335.00 +05.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.242)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 162,762 lots, or 6.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 4,353 4,353 4,247 4,248 4,355 4,293 -62 8,805 18,118
Jan-25 4,300 4,300 4,187 4,190 4,305 4,235 -70 143,713 147,596
Mar-25 4,221 4,221 4,137 4,138 4,227 4,166 -61 5,963 16,207
May-25 4,239 4,239 4,171 4,172 4,247 4,192 -55 2,560 8,583
Jul-25 4,190 4,191 4,134 4,139 4,195 4,151 -44 1,188 3,421
Sep-25 4,153 4,214 4,132 4,132 4,195 4,157 -38 533 490
Corn
Turnover: 811,084 lots, or 17.77 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 2,190 2,207 2,161 2,199 2,195 2,183 -12 512,404 542,073
Jan-25 2,201 2,215 2,174 2,211 2,216 2,195 -21 209,277 439,733
Mar-25 2,209 2,209 2,177 2,205 2,212 2,191 -21 37,691 157,503
May-25 2,255 2,264 2,223 2,260 2,258 2,244 -14 32,001 73,623
Jul-25 2,265 2,274 2,235 2,271 2,268 2,258 -10 19,151 39,630
Sep-25 2,255 2,286 2,249 2,279 2,268 2,269 1 560 378
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,689,748 lots, or 51.99 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 3,099 3,156 3,095 3,155 3,075 3,135 60 98,273 370,800
Dec-24 3,081 3,150 3,081 3,148 3,068 3,131 63 14,081 116,234
Jan-25 3,085 3,139 3,082 3,138 3,057 3,121 64 1,199,666 1,342,233
Mar-25 2,985 3,030 2,980 3,026 2,961 3,012 51 20,426 112,577
May-25 2,891 2,922 2,881 2,920 2,872 2,906 34 309,536 1,031,708
Jul-25 2,879 2,916 2,879 2,913 2,869 2,902 33 20,111 98,607
Aug-25 2,968 3,013 2,964 3,008 2,956 2,995 39 10,120 47,471
Sep-25 3,010 3,031 2,970 3,001 2,956 2,995 39 17,535 12,400
Palm Oil
Turnover: 643,998 lots, or 50.72 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-24 7,854 8,048 7,854 8,026 7,944 7,966 22 3,856 3,742
Nov-24 7,832 8,040 7,832 8,024 7,930 7,956 26 8,459 10,029
Dec-24 7,840 8,006 7,838 7,996 7,896 7,950 54 151 566
Jan-25 7,788 7,964 7,774 7,952 7,852 7,882 30 588,513 478,416
Feb-25 7,766 7,916 7,766 7,912 7,844 7,840 -4 54 328
Mar-25 7,746 7,906 7,736 7,904 7,836 7,840 4 360 3,852
Apr-25 7,730 7,862 7,730 7,862 7,786 7,790 4 39 324
May-25 7,618 7,822 7,618 7,808 7,726 7,746 20 42,416 113,888
Jun-25 7,628 7,754 7,616 7,744 7,686 7,702 16 44 125
Jul-25 7,580 7,680 7,548 7,680 7,612 7,628 16 41 136
Aug-25 7,530 7,640 7,530 7,630 7,534 7,592 58 23 32
Sep-25 7,600 7,600 7,408 7,566 7,534 7,534 0 42 17
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 557,098 lots, or 4.32 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-24 7,648 7,800 7,648 7,764 7,694 7,756 62 15,918 25,915
Dec-24 7,696 7,828 7,696 7,804 7,716 7,766 50 1,907 4,879
Jan-25 7,684 7,824 7,674 7,802 7,692 7,772 80 486,881 633,737
Mar-25 7,586 7,720 7,578 7,708 7,600 7,670 70 506 4,664
May-25 7,374 7,534 7,374 7,512 7,420 7,480 60 51,352 216,922
Jul-25 7,268 7,416 7,268 7,404 7,320 7,380 60 299 956
Aug-25 7,380 7,444 7,328 7,416 7,342 7,400 58 98 205
Sep-25 7,400 7,440 7,332 7,430 7,342 7,402 60 137 86
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322