Grains Report 09/16/2024

DJ Statistics Canada Crop Production Report – Sep 16
WINNIPEG–Canada 2024-25 grain/oilseed model-based production estimates.
Source: Statistics Canada. Production in thousand metric tons, yield in
kg/hectare, area harvested in thousand hectares.
Harvested Avg Production
area yield 2024-25 2024-25 2023-24
SEP AUG FINAL
barley 2,316.2 3,281 7,600.2 7,468.7 8,905.4
edible beans N/A N/A N/A N/A 339.3
canaryseed 115.1 1,406 161.8 161.9 112.2
canola 8,825.0 2,151 18,980.5 19,501.7 19,191.7
chickpeas 189.1 1,730 327.2 330.4 159.1
corn 1,440.0 10,533 15,167.6 15,228.9 15,420.9
faba beans N/A N/A N/A 2.2 107.1
flaxseed 195.8 1,355 265.3 300.1 272.7
lentils 1,677.4 1,546 2,593.5 2,774.4 1,801.1
mixed grains 60.6 2,404 145.7 150.6 152.9
mustard 237.4 887 210.7 191.0 170.7
oats 946.6 3,187 3,017.3 2,910.5 2,643.1
dry peas 1,268.4 2,491 3,160.0 3,008.0 2,608.8
fall rye* 117.5 2,970 349.0 380.9 357.8
soybeans 2,306.7 3,120 7,196.7 7,149.7 6,980.5
sugar beets N/A N/A N/A N/A 1,172.4
sunflower seed 17.6 2,053 36.1 36.7 92.5
triticale N/A N/A N/A N/A 43.9
all wheat 10,532.1 3,256 34,293.3 34,373.3 32,946.2
durum wheat 2,501.5 2,412 6,033.4 6,021.5 4,087.5
spring wheat 7,496.1 3,372 25,275.4 25,351.1 25,520.4
winter wheat* 534.5 5,583 2,984.5 3,000.6 3,338.4
*Fall rye and winter wheat numbers represent what was remaining
after winterkill.
Source: MarketsFarm (news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 16
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 17, 2024 43 Sep 13, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 17, 2024 29 Aug 21, 2024
ROUGH RICE September Sep 17, 2024 281 Sep 09, 2024
CORN September Sep 17, 2024 9 Sep 13, 2024
KC HRW WHEAT September Sep 17, 2024 2 Sep 13, 2024
OATS September Sep 17, 2024 2 Sep 12, 2024
SOYBEAN September Sep 17, 2024 49 Sep 13, 2024
MINI-SIZED SOYBEANS September Sep 17, 2024 15 Aug 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was higher lasts week as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 580, 570, and 561 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 580, 566, and 559 December, with resistance at 607, 618, and 637 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 612, 602, and 595 December, and resistance is at 646, 655, and 668 December.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 422,221
: Positions :
: 55,284 124,708 112,427 87,507 99,580 136,867 47,966 392,085 384,681: 30,136 37,540
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: -16,639) :
: -9,350 -20,713 -2,112 -3,970 6,973 1,987 -450 -13,446 -16,301: -3,193 -337
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.1 29.5 26.6 20.7 23.6 32.4 11.4 92.9 91.1: 7.1 8.9
: Total Traders: 372 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 70 115 112 95 108 46 29 286 296:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 243,760
: Positions :
: 38,004 62,893 44,377 51,428 84,291 91,830 30,848 225,639 222,408: 18,121 21,352
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: -9,995) :
: 3,727 -6,838 -6,109 -5,194 3,576 -1,372 -412 -8,948 -9,783: -1,047 -212
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 15.6 25.8 18.2 21.1 34.6 37.7 12.7 92.6 91.2: 7.4 8.8
: Total Traders: 256 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 50 59 55 77 81 38 19 192 189:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 76,219 :
: Positions :
: 40,223 23,705 3,106 478 209 8,143 29,850 6,588 2,797 1,815 4,226 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: -3,195 2,467 184 115 37 446 -2,795 335 275 -1,119 -77 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.8 31.1 4.1 0.6 0.3 10.7 39.2 8.6 3.7 2.4 5.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 117 :
: 55 37 6 . 4 9 22 9 10 6 11 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE
General Comments: Rice closed higher last week on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. A hurricane came on shore on Thursday in Louisiana and brought significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports, but the market traded higher anyway.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1548, 1551, and 1562 November

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 10,200 :
: Positions :
: 6,075 5,293 59 224 0 565 2,285 1 1,546 108 826 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 26 357 7 -6 0 36 -340 1 59 -68 122 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 59.6 51.9 0.6 2.2 0.0 5.5 22.4 0.0 15.2 1.1 8.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 70 :
: 23 13 . . 0 5 14 . 17 . 9 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher last week on speculative buying based on ideas that huge crops are already part of the price. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports yesterday. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 362, 359, and 341 December, and resistance is at 387, 404, and 413 December

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 1,712,686
: Positions :
: 173,064 285,325 481,505 489,650 560,835 401,259 151,366 1,545,477 1,479,030: 167,209 233,656
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 9,988) :
: 3,871 -40,832 8,353 330 29,144 4,157 -319 16,711 -3,654: -6,724 13,642
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 10.1 16.7 28.1 28.6 32.7 23.4 8.8 90.2 86.4: 9.8 13.6
: Total Traders: 782 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132 145 179 329 341 50 31 611 616:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 3,651 :
: Positions :
: 786 1,513 205 250 35 238 551 0 618 145 139 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: -648 479 61 -89 7 -60 -676 0 120 -223 -31 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 21.5 41.4 5.6 6.8 1.0 6.5 15.1 0.0 16.9 4.0 3.8 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 25 :
: 7 6 . . . . 4 0 5 . . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were a little lower last week despite the release of the USDA reports on Thursday that showed a slight reduction in production and ending stocks estimates in old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is warm now and it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Export demand is catching up, however. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3940, 3710, and 3650 October, with resistance at 4080, 4200, and 4300 October.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,075,036
: Positions :
: 41,527 176,811 324,216 456,644 387,219 206,328 107,301 1,028,715 995,548: 46,320 79,488
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 18,388) :
: -6,825 -19,806 24,076 -4,300 12,628 5,246 -1,683 18,197 15,215: 191 3,173
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 3.9 16.4 30.2 42.5 36.0 19.2 10.0 95.7 92.6: 4.3 7.4
: Total Traders: 577 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 94 172 181 204 217 50 29 466 491:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 589,366
: Positions :
: 75,135 124,776 123,412 209,092 272,340 150,004 40,112 557,643 560,640: 31,723 28,725
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: 5,674) :
: 1,716 2,152 6,237 -3,608 -5,822 -1,013 651 3,332 3,219: 2,342 2,455
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.7 21.2 20.9 35.5 46.2 25.5 6.8 94.6 95.1: 5.4 4.9
: Total Traders: 336 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 69 85 97 106 92 43 26 274 253:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 565,319
: Positions :
: 72,682 71,412 127,299 174,271 307,878 140,970 29,472 515,221 536,060: 50,098 29,258
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 (Change in open interest: -4,545) :
: 1,307 -6,616 -2,922 1,327 12,059 -2,135 -8,024 -2,423 -5,503: -2,122 958
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.9 12.6 22.5 30.8 54.5 24.9 5.2 91.1 94.8: 8.9 5.2
: Total Traders: 344 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 56 84 96 122 119 44 24 282 274:
——————————————————————————————————————-

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower last week after the release of bearish MPOB data with increased monthly ending stocks levels. The market is closed today. Production reports indicate an increase in production at this time and disappearance has suffered with less demand from China. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was lower lastz week as the harvest is coming. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less. Demand concern remain at the forefront with less demand expected from China with that country now in a trade war with Canada.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are down. Support is at 538.00, 532.00, and 526.00 November, with resistance at 565.00, 583.00, and 606.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3690, 3640, and 3610 November, with resistance at 3860, 3950, and 4020 November.

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
USD Malaysian Crude Palm Oil C – CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 25 METRIC TONS) :
CFTC Code #037021 Open Interest is 41,689 :
: Positions :
: 31,994 13,660 480 15,512 570 840 35 630 445 4,552 6,710 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 320 260 0 -120 0 0 0 0 0 180 -400 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 76.7 32.8 1.2 37.2 1.4 2.0 0.1 1.5 1.1 10.9 16.1 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 36 :
: 9 11 . 6 . . . . . 11 . :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of September 10, 2024
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
CANOLA – ICE FUTURES U.S. (20 Metric Tonnes) :
CFTC Code #135731 Open Interest is 312,747 :
: Positions :
: 259,198 100,792 5,020 16,025 2,114 3,916 142,583 16,159 6,446 13,995 17,774 :
: Changes from: September 3, 2024 :
: 8 -9,989 863 350 258 -1,304 3,339 950 -3,569 2,154 3,197 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 82.9 32.2 1.6 5.1 0.7 1.3 45.6 5.2 2.1 4.5 5.7 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 343 :
: 62 71 5 7 6 9 90 21 46 90 58 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to above normal.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322