Softs Report 09/13/2024

COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher yesterday on speculative buying tied to the data in the USDA reports and reports that the weather in southern states will feature a hurricane that could damage crops. USDA cut production and demand for reduced ending stocks. There are still ideas of weaker demand potential against an outlook for improved US production in the coming year. Speculators see no reason to buy except to cover short positions as there have been demand concerns about Bangladesh and China and ideas are that production is strong enough. The Delta should have the best looking crops right now even after some very hot weather, but crops in other areas are more suspect. Texas and the Southeast have seen some extreme heat so far this year, and Texas has also seen dry conditions at times during the growing season. Delta areas are about to get hit by a hurricane by some time tonight that could damage or destroy open bolls. Demand has been weaker so far this year but there are hopes for improved demand with the lower prices. Futures are now as cheap as they have been for several years.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 68.30, 67.50, and 66.30 December, with resistance of 71.30, 73.00 and 75.80 December.

All cotton production is forecast at 14.5 million 480-pound bales, down
4 percent from the previous forecast but up 20 percent from 2023. Based on
conditions as of September 1, yields are expected to average 807 pounds per
harvested acre, down 33 pounds from the previous forecast and down 92 pounds
from 2023. Upland cotton production is forecast at 14.0 million 480-pound
bales, down 4 percent from the previous forecast but up 19 percent from 2023.
Pima cotton production is forecast at 547,000 bales, down 1 percent from the
previous forecast but up 73 percent from 2023. All cotton area harvested is
forecast at 8.63 million acres, up slightly from the previous forecast and up
34 percent from 2023. All cotton planted area totaled 11.2 million acres, up
slightly from the previous forecast and up 9 percent from 2023.

U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
Million Acres
Planted 13.75 10.23 11.17 11.17
Harvested 7.29 6.44 8.63 8.63
Pounds
Yield per Harvested
Acre 953 899 840 807
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks 4.60 4.65 3.15 3.15
Production 14.47 12.07 15.11 14.51
Imports 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, Total 19.07 16.72 18.27 17.67
Domestic Use 2.05 1.85 1.90 1.90
Exports, Total 12.45 11.75 12.00 11.80
Use, Total 14.50 13.60 13.90 13.70
Unaccounted 2/ -0.08 -0.03 -0.14 -0.03
Ending Stocks 4.65 3.15 4.50 4.00
Avg. Farm Price 3/ 84.8 76.0 66.0 66.0
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WASDE – 652 – 18 September 2024

World Cotton Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-Pound Bales)
================================================================================
Supply Use
Region Beginning Produc- Loss Ending
Stocks tion Imports Domestic Exports 2/ Stocks
================================================================================
2024/25 Proj.
World
Aug 75.78 117.64 43.63 116.21 43.54 -0.31 77.61
Sep 75.61 116.42 42.99 115.75 42.99 -0.21 76.49
World Less China
Aug 38.15 90.14 33.63 78.21 43.47 -0.31 40.55
Sep 37.99 88.62 33.49 77.75 42.92 -0.21 39.65
United States
Aug 3.15 15.11 0.01 1.90 12.00 -0.14 4.50
Sep 3.15 14.51 0.01 1.90 11.80 -0.03 4.00
Total Foreign
Aug 72.63 102.53 43.63 114.31 31.54 -0.18 73.11
Sep 72.46 101.91 42.98 113.85 31.19 -0.18 72.49
Major Exporters 4/
Aug 25.64 59.22 2.70 34.68 27.33 -0.18 25.71
Sep 25.34 58.57 3.00 34.66 26.96 -0.18 25.47
Major Importers 8/
Aug 44.59 39.82 38.26 75.32 2.39 0.00 44.96
Sep 44.71 39.85 37.33 74.91 2.39 0.00 44.59
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WASDE – 652 – 28 September 2024

FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ closed lower yesterday on follow through selling as forecasts call for limited tropical activity in the near future in the Atlantic. Nothing appeared threatening in the forecasts for this or next week and there is nothing in the ocean to suggest that a storm is on its way to Florida but one is headed for the Texas-Louisiana border area. A very active year has been forecast but has yet to come true. The market remains well supported in the longer term based on forecasts for tight supplies in Florida. The reduced production appears to be mostly at the expense of the greening disease. There are no weather concerns to speak of for Florida or for Brazil right now although reports indicate that Brazil is hot and dry.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 468.00, 453.00, and 439.00 November, with resistance at a 492.00, 506.00, and 512.00 November

California Navel orange production for the 2024-2025 season is forecast at
39.0 million boxes (1.56 million tons), up 2 percent from last season. The
initial forecast is based on an objective measurement survey conducted in
California’s Central Valley from mid-June to the beginning of September. The
objective measurement survey indicated that fruit set was up 24 percent from
last year but the average fruit size was down 5 percent from last year.
Harvest is expected to begin in October.

COFFEE
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday with offers from Vietnam and Indonesia still hard to find but offers from Brazil in the market. Indonesian offers are still less as producers wait for higher prices before selling. Damage was done to crops earlier in the growing season in Vietnam and lower production is now expected for the next crop. It is very dry in Brazil right now.
Overnight News: The ICO average price is now 255.22 ct/lb.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 234.00, 229.00, and 226.00 December, and resistance is at 252.00, 259.00 and 265.00 December. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 4660, 4620, and 4530 November, with resistance at 5180, 5240, and 5300 November.

SUGAR
General Comments: New York and London closed higher yesterday on follow through buying. Chinese demand is a problem amid the economic problems seen there. Harvest progress in Brazil and improved growing conditions in India and Thailand are the important fundamentals and growing conditions are dry in Brazil to help promote an active harvest period. Indian and Thai monsoon rains have been very beneficial and mills are expecting strong crops of cane. They are pushing the governments to allow exports but so far the governments have not agreed to allow any exports. Production estimates were raised in the northern hemisphere. Harvest yields of Sugarcane in Brazil are strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with no objectives. Support is at 1850, 1780, and 1720 October and resistance is at 1940, 1960, and 1990 October. Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 517.00, 513.00, and 508.00 October, with resistance at 547.00, 549.00, and 559.00 October.

Sugarbeet for Sugar Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States: 2023 and
Forecasted September 1, 2024
[Relates to year of intended harvest in all States except California]
————————————————————————————————-
: Area harvested : Yield per acre : Production
:———————————————————————————
State : : : : 2024 : :
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 :—————————: 2023 : 2024
: : : : August 1 : September 1 : :
————————————————————————————————-
: — 1,000 acres — ———— tons ———— — 1,000 tons —
California 1/ .: 22.6 22.6 48.8 48.8 48.8 1,103 1,103
Colorado ……: 21.3 23.5 28.3 31.6 32.7 603 768
Idaho ………: 174.0 169.0 40.0 39.2 39.3 6,960 6,642
Michigan ……: 132.0 134.0 33.9 36.5 36.5 4,475 4,891
Minnesota …..: 438.0 401.0 28.7 30.0 29.9 12,571 11,990
Montana …….: 23.3 24.0 31.6 30.5 32.3 736 775
Nebraska ……: 46.6 46.7 28.6 30.2 31.5 1,333 1,471
North Dakota ..: 228.0 211.0 26.8 30.4 29.9 6,110 6,309
Oregon ……..: 10.7 10.4 36.4 38.5 37.3 389 388
Washington ….: 2.0 1.9 49.7 48.4 48.8 99 93
Wyoming …….: 28.8 31.0 29.4 30.1 30.9 847 958
United States .: 1,127.3 1,075.1 31.2 32.9 32.9 35,226 35,388
————————————————————————————————-
1/ Relates to year of planting for overwintered beets in southern California.

Sugarcane for Sugar and Seed Area Harvested, Yield, and Production – States and United States:
2023 and Forecasted September 1, 2024
————————————————————————————————-
: Area harvested : Yield per acre 1/ : Production 1/
:———————————————————————————
State : : : : 2024 : :
: 2023 : 2024 : 2023 :—————————: 2023 : 2024
: : : : August 1 : September 1 : :
————————————————————————————————-
: 1,000 acres ————- tons ———— — 1,000 tons —
Florida …….: 407.6 404.0 44.6 45.6 46.1 18,187 18,624
Louisiana …..: 505.5 520.0 30.1 30.4 32.1 15,208 16,692
Texas 2/ ……: 16.5 (NA) 22.5 (NA) (NA) 371 (NA)
United States .: 929.6 924.0 36.3 37.0 38.2 33,766 35,316
————————————————————————————————-
(NA) Not available.
1/ Net tons.
2/ Estimates discontinued in 2024.

U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/
================================================================================
2022/23 2023/24 Est. 2024/25 Proj. 2024/25 Proj.
Item Aug Sep
================================================================================
1000 Short Tons, Raw Value
Beginning Stocks 1820 1843 2043 2278
Production 2/ 9250 9265 9514 9474
Beet Sugar 5187 5159 5363 5311
Cane Sugar 4063 4106 4151 4163
Florida 1985 2077 2066 2053
Louisiana 2001 1989 2085 2111
Texas 76 40 0 0
Imports 3614 3834 2933 2530
TRQ 3/ 1862 1823 1644 1618
Other Program 4/ 141 320 200 200
Non-program 1611 1690 1089 712
Mexico 1156 520 790 395
High-tier tariff/other 455 1170 299 317
Total Supply 14685 14941 14490 14282
Exports 82 225 100 100
Deliveries 12589 12438 12405 12405
Food 12473 12300 12300 12300
Other 5/ 116 138 105 105
Miscellaneous 171 0 0 0
Total Use 12843 12663 12505 12505
Ending Stocks 1843 2278 1985 1777
Stocks to Use Ratio 14.3 18.0 15.9 14.2
================================================================================

Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Consumption 1/
================================================================================
Supply Use
Fiscal Beginning Produc- Imports Domestic Exports Ending
Year Stocks tion 2/ Stocks
================================================================================

1000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight

Sugar
2023/24 Est.
Aug 835 4704 797 4540 441 1355
Sep 835 4704 816 4532 445 1377
2024/25 Proj.
Aug 1355 5094 25 4653 845 977
Sep 1377 5094 25 4653 867 977
================================================================================
WASDE – 652 – 17 September 2024

COCOA
General Comments: New York and London closed lower yesterday as production for the next crop looks to be improved. The market has rejected a new leg down on the daily charts last week and is back solidly in the previous trading range. Production in West Africa could be stronger this year on currently dry weather in Ivory Coast. Ghana has had hot and dry conditions and there are reports that pods are being aborted. Above average rain is now forecast for the next couple of weeks to improve conditions in West Africa. The availability of Cocoa from West Africa remains very restricted, but surplus production against demand is expected in the next crop year.
Overnight News:
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with objectives of 6820 and 6020 December. Support is at 6600, 6000, and 5870 December, with resistance at 7940, 8240, and 8550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 4870, 4850, and 4790 December, with resistance at 5510, 5690, and 5800 December.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322