Grains Report 09/13/2024

DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA’s crop report and how the government’s estimates compared to analysts’ forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2024 Production, Yield (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Production 15,186.0 15,154 14,974-15,932 15,147
Soybean Production 4,586.0 4,609 4,477-4,740 4,589
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn Yield 183.6 182.7 180.5-184.0 183.1
Soybean Yield 53.2 53.4 52.0-54.9 53.2
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U.S. Stockpiles (million bushels)
2023-24
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 1,812 1,853 1,817-1,899 1,867
Soybeans 340 343 330-371 345
2024-25
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 2,057 2,009 1,819-2,120 2,073
Soybeans 550 584 525-670 560
Wheat 828 820 800-835 828
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World Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2023-24
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 309.6 308.2 307.0-308.9 308.5
Soybeans 112.3 112.1 110.2-113.0 112.4
Wheat 265.3 262.5 262.3-263.0 262.4
2024-25
Thursday’s Average USDA
Estimates Forecast Range August
Corn 308.4 309.0 307.4-311.0 310.2
Soybeans 134.6 134.2 133.0-135.0 134.3
Wheat 257.2 255.8 254.1-257.0 256.6

DJ USDA Supply/Demand: Crop Summary – Sep 12
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts’ judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board.
======U.S.====== ================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23: 24/25 23/24 22/23
Soybeans 550.0 340.0 264.0:181.63 177.95 171.76:429.20 394.75 378.70
Brazil na na na:105.00 105.00 95.50:169.00 153.00 162.00
Argentina na na na: 4.50 5.20 4.19: 51.00 48.10 25.00
China na na na: 0.10 0.10 0.09: 20.70 20.84 20.28
Soyoil 1,787 1,622 1,607: 12.01 11.16 11.71: 65.54 62.44 59.61
Corn 2,057 1,812 1,360:191.37 199.73 180.24: 1,219 1,224 1,160
China na na na: 0.02 0.02 0.01:292.00 288.84 277.20
Argentina na na na: 36.00 35.00 25.24: 51.00 50.00 36.00
S.Africa na na na: 3.20 2.30 3.44: 17.00 13.70 17.10
Cotton(a) 4.00 3.15 4.65: 42.99 44.71 36.78:116.42 113.57 116.46
All Wheat 828 702 570:216.51 221.49 221.76:796.88 790.54 789.49
China na na na: 1.00 1.04 0.95:140.00 136.59 137.72
European
Union na na na: 31.50 37.87 35.08:124.00 134.87 134.29
Canada na na na: 26.00 25.44 25.59: 35.00 32.95 34.81
Argentina na na na: 11.50 8.20 3.66: 18.00 15.85 12.55
Australia na na na: 25.00 20.00 31.82: 32.00 25.96 40.55
Russia na na na: 48.00 55.50 49.00: 83.00 91.50 92.00
Ukraine na na na: 15.00 18.58 17.12: 22.30 23.00 21.50
Sorghum 22.0 25.0 24.0: na na na: na na na
Barley 69.0 78.0 66.0: na na na: na na na
Oats 40.0 36.0 35.0: na na na: na na na
Rice 45.6 39.4 30.3: 54.30 54.41 54.64:527.31 520.65 516.02

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals – Sep 13
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL September Sep 16, 2024 113 Sep 11, 2024
SOYBEAN OIL September Sep 16, 2024 94 Aug 21, 2024
RICE September Sep 16, 2024 25 Jul 3, 2024
CORN September Sep 16, 2024 65 Sep 12, 2024
SOYBEAN September Sep 16, 2024 3 Not Reported
MINI-SIZED SOYBEANS September Sep 16, 2024 15 Aug 30, 2024

WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat was mixed as world prices were stable amid weather problems here in the US and around the globe. The USDA reports held little significance for Wheat as USDA will update production at the end of the month in the Small Grains Report. Ideas are that the Great Plains are too hot and dry for best Wheat development are still around as the Winter crop gets planted. It is also hot and dry in western Canada. Cash markets in Russia were unchanged even as production estimates have dropped to about 82 million tons and prices in Europe have been near unchanged so far this week. Ideas of good crops just harvested in the US and Canada went against reports of dry weather in eastern Europe and Russia and too wet weather in France and Germany along with Spring Wheat areas of Russia are still heard and the weather there affecting world production estimates. There were more reports of dry conditions coming this week to Russian growing areas although Spring Wheat areas have seen too much rain. Eastern Europe is also hot and dry. Western Europe has seen too much rain.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 560, 544, and 532 December, with resistance at 603, 615, and 642 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 566, 559, and 539 December, with resistance at 594, 607, and 618 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 602, 595, and 575 December, and resistance is at 630, 618, and 630 December.

RICE
General Comments Rice closed higher yesterday on a lack of offers in the cash market and some reports of rain in Arkansas. A hurricane came on shore yesterday on Louisiana and is bringing significant rain and wind to Rice lands in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The US weather has been an issue much of the growing season with too much rain early in the year. Some areas are now too hot and dry, especially in Texas, and Texas yields are down as the harvest is now over in the state. USDA showed increased production and less demand in the monthly reports, but the market traded higher anyway.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1499, 1466, and 1456 November and resistance is at 1548, 1551, and 1562 November

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed aa little higher, and Oats closed higher yesterday on speculative buying based on ideas that huge crops are already part of the price. USDA showed increased production but a bigger increase in demand for reduced ending stocks in its reports yesterday. Many of the changes to demand were in the old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production data will be the biggest seen all year due to the dry August and September in most of the Midwest. Producers plan to hold new crop supplies in hopes for higher prices. Ideas of very strong yields are still heard and harvest is just a few weeks away. Increased US demand comes from the fact that Corn prices are already the cheapest in the world. Current forecasts call for cooler and drier weather for the Midwest for the week or longer.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 397, 389, and 366 December, and resistance is at 416, 424, and 426 September. Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 362, 359, and 341 December, and resistance is at 387, 404, and 413 December

SOYBEANS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were higher yesterday on speculative buying tied to the USDA reports that showed a slight reduction in production and ending stocks estimates in old crop data that carried through to the new crop. Ideas are that the production reports are the biggest that will be seen this year. There is concern about the dry weather seen in the Midwest since early last week that could hurt pod fill. Ideas are that the beans could be smaller in the pods, but this will not be seen in this report that will include mainly pod counts. Bean sizes will be measured in subsequent months. The weather is cooler now but it should remain dry. Reports indicate that China is buying a lot in the US but overall export demand is behind average. Domestic demand has been strong in the US.
Overnight News: China bought 100,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 988, 973, and 960 November, and resistance is at 1032, 1042, and 1064 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 312.00, 306.00, and 304.00 October, and resistance is at 333.00, 344.00, and 347.00 October. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 4020, 3940, and 3710 October, with resistance at 4200, 4300, and 4400 October.

PALM OIL AND CANOLA
General Comments: Palm Oil was lower yesterday after the release of bearish MPOB data with increased ending stocks levels. Production reports indicate that the increase in production is less than expected at this time but is rising. Export demand has been very strong in recent private reports but has been weaker in recent days. There is talk of increased supplies available to the market, and the trends are down on the daily charts. Canola was a little lower yesterday as the harvest is coming. The weather has been hot and dry in Canada and it looks like Canola production has been impacted. The weather has called for dry conditions in the Prairies and yields are expected to be the same or less.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 556.00, 550.00, and 544.00 November, with resistance at 583.00, 606.00, and 611.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 3820, 3740, and 3690 November, with resistance at 3950, 4020, and 4090 November.

Midwest Weather Forecast Mostly dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – Sep 13
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 965.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 940.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 910.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 902.50 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 970.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Oct/Nov/Dec 945.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Jan/Feb/Mar 915.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 907.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 980.00 00.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 825.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 4,010.00 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Sep 334.00 +04.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.3035)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Sep 13
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 98,626 lots, or 4.25 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 4,436 4,438 4,436 -2 0 0
Nov-24 4,364 4,372 4,343 4,360 4,365 4,355 -10 3,732 17,679
Jan-25 4,304 4,320 4,290 4,313 4,304 4,305 1 92,560 129,777
Mar-25 4,232 4,241 4,214 4,234 4,228 4,227 -1 1,456 15,141
May-25 4,250 4,260 4,233 4,252 4,243 4,247 4 685 8,029
Jul-25 4,192 4,208 4,182 4,200 4,190 4,195 5 193 3,271
Corn
Turnover: 589,599 lots, or 13.00 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 2,292 2,229 2,292 63 2 0
Nov-24 2,201 2,206 2,184 2,200 2,199 2,195 -4 400,172 557,169
Jan-25 2,225 2,226 2,206 2,216 2,219 2,216 -3 132,433 432,182
Mar-25 2,213 2,223 2,203 2,212 2,216 2,212 -4 27,852 158,376
May-25 2,261 2,269 2,248 2,254 2,262 2,258 -4 15,604 70,257
Jul-25 2,273 2,280 2,259 2,265 2,272 2,268 -4 13,536 38,789
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,795,566 lots, or 54.22 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 3,012 3,030 3,012 -18 391 0
Nov-24 3,070 3,098 3,046 3,092 3,059 3,075 16 98,648 372,772
Dec-24 3,069 3,096 3,041 3,087 3,058 3,068 10 12,385 115,747
Jan-25 3,054 3,087 3,028 3,075 3,044 3,057 13 1,292,466 1,320,196
Mar-25 2,961 2,988 2,936 2,977 2,949 2,961 12 19,685 112,902
May-25 2,866 2,893 2,850 2,887 2,859 2,872 13 344,489 1,043,382
Jul-25 2,869 2,890 2,851 2,883 2,858 2,869 11 20,580 99,891
Aug-25 2,962 2,975 2,939 2,966 2,951 2,956 5 6,922 46,274
Palm Oil
Turnover: 977,430 lots, or 76.69 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 – – – 8,026 7,970 8,026 56 14 0
Oct-24 7,936 8,056 7,844 7,854 7,894 7,944 50 4,553 4,151
Nov-24 7,928 8,042 7,826 7,834 7,884 7,930 46 7,806 9,517
Dec-24 7,880 8,016 7,814 7,816 7,892 7,896 4 236 589
Jan-25 7,828 7,972 7,754 7,766 7,818 7,852 34 905,394 453,039
Feb-25 7,800 7,928 7,728 7,728 7,802 7,844 42 29 352
Mar-25 7,816 7,924 7,714 7,714 7,772 7,836 64 605 3,852
Apr-25 7,754 7,882 7,672 7,672 7,754 7,786 32 141 325
May-25 7,718 7,844 7,620 7,630 7,692 7,726 34 58,511 113,901
Jun-25 7,622 7,780 7,584 7,584 7,626 7,686 60 55 120
Jul-25 7,566 7,720 7,522 7,524 7,580 7,612 32 76 135
Aug-25 7,500 7,640 7,484 7,484 7,530 7,534 4 10 29
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 731,830 lots, or 56.11 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Sep-24 7,996 7,996 7,540 7,540 7,600 7,748 148 5 0
Nov-24 7,662 7,780 7,602 7,632 7,632 7,694 62 18,189 26,500
Dec-24 7,696 7,804 7,636 7,650 7,658 7,716 58 1,619 4,638
Jan-25 7,670 7,792 7,618 7,638 7,638 7,692 54 642,364 596,488
Mar-25 7,584 7,696 7,532 7,550 7,558 7,600 42 405 4,621
May-25 7,402 7,508 7,346 7,358 7,372 7,420 48 68,673 214,631
Jul-25 7,302 7,390 7,256 7,260 7,274 7,320 46 546 971
Aug-25 7,350 7,396 7,282 7,288 7,298 7,342 44 29 174
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322